February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[mackerel_sky]

I must admit after tracking the severe that actually happens more commonly for us yesterday, I enjoyed it much more than any possible snow threat this year. I'm not sold on the next bout of severe of course. Hurricane season is looking promising to be more eventful for the SE too!

It's probably going to be hard to find a city to move , where you get the tons of snow and possibility of having a tropical storm track over you, you better just stay in CAE, where you can/do experience both!

[mrdaddyman]

Anyway, winter isn't over yet. Doesn't look like the warm up is going to stay around long, the models keep flipping back and forth, and now they are starting to become more interesting again.

 

I will agree that the GEFS and the GGEM Ensembles have a decent look to them for the end of next week but since that's more than 3 days away I put no stock in them at this time.

[TiltedStorm]

I guess I'm weird, I don't find the death and destruction of severe weather like tornadoes et al to be something to look forward to. I guess that is why I don't frequent the boards much during those times (although I do find tracking long running Hurricanes to be interesting). When it is all said and done, I hope we don't have any devastating storms which can surprise and destroy people and things. I suppose getting the word out so people don't get hurt a noble cause however.

Agreed, I have noticed that several times over the past few months. It's normally the same users.

Neverless, it is quite morbid.

[pcbjr]

Have to say that's an interesting choice of words..

 Actually a sucky choice of words - 'Canes are not nice.

[buckeyefan1]

Blogger mets have to hype every season or they will lose subscribers. How many of them have released winter forecasts that are above normal for temps and below normal for snow? Energy mets who make a living based on accurate forecasts were predicting a warmer than average winter way way back. Go read some of NRGjeffs posts in the TN forum. He is a private net not a blogger and e nailed it. Mr Bob did very well too.

Realist forecasting ftw!     Cheeze has those same skills too btw    

 

Overall, hype can cause a lot of unnecessary expectations for everyone.  While people like JB should be taken with a grain of salt, one met will forecast a good year, then the next, and it snowballs into a big hype fest.

 

There were many outlooks from more reputable people not needing to line their pockets off Winter storms showing about what we experienced.  We just kinda threw their ideas away because we wanted cold and snowy.  Just like we do with the models.

 

Basically, after these last two Winters were supposed to be nice, I am no longer letting my wishes cloud what makes the most sense.  I think we all should focus more on what can go wrong instead of what can go well.

It's not popular to forecast warm and wet instead of cold and snowy        

[franklin NCwx]

Hints of a snowstorm next weekend.

[frazdaddy]

Agreed, I have noticed that several times over the past few months. It's normally the same users.

Neverless, it is quite morbid.

You are on a weather board, that is frequented by weather enthusiasts.

[mackerel_sky]

Realist forecasting ftw! Cheeze has those same skills too btw

It's not popular to forecast warm and wet instead of cold and snowy

I'm going to go with warm and wet with every winter from now on; so I can be dissapointed by snow!

[mackerel_sky]

Agreed, I have noticed that several times over the past few months. It's normally the same users.

Neverless, it is quite morbid.

It's kind of the same as snow weenies! The same good posters you see with every snowy model run, crashing 850's and clown maps showing a foot plus and "booms" ! And I get that snow doesn't really " hurt" anyone!

The severe weenies get their kicks of crazy shear values and cape and hodographs, and instability that's off the charts, it's their " clown maps" !!

Different strokes , for different folks! I don't think they wish death and destruction to happen, they just track it and get excited by the model runs, and it's going to happen whether or not they talk about it , kind of like our snowstorms, they will happen ,or not, whether we start the thread 8 days out or 2 days out! It's weather, we don't have any say over it!

[cbmclean]

It was the excitement of the extremely strong El Nino that had the attention of many and warm water being  centered in the W Pacific instead of the E Pacific. JB explained how this could (and did) lead to a +PNA (West NA ridge). What JB and others may not have taken into account is that if the NAO stays positive, there is nothing to slow down the strong STJ flow and allow enough cold to dive south to interact with the STJ to produce winter storms.

 

WRT a La Nina and a +NAO. That scenario scares me. It has SE ridge written all over it. Everyone complains about this winter, but I will take it over sunny and 65 everyday. That is a great spring or fall, but a very bad winter IMO.

I have heard predictions of a La Nina next year, but who is predicting a +NAO?  Is it just because those have been much more common lately?

 

Anyway, these are my sentiments exactly: if it has to be mild, I would prefer it grey and rainy.  However, I believe we may be in the minority.  Many have expressed the thought that if they can;t have snow, they would rather it be +65 F and sunny.

[NWNC2015]

For those that have been on a role with winter weather in March the past few years I think this March will be very similar. Ample moisture opportunities with storminess in the GOM and dabs of cold here and there.

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Seattle had their wettest winter ever recorded! A very unique niño indeed!

[nchighcountrywx]

Anniversary of Charlotte Area 24" Snow

 

February 26-27 2004

 

From WX Brad Blog

 

http://wxbrad.com/10-years-ago-today-we-saw-almost-2-of-snow/

 

Records set during this storm:

 

Charlotte set a daily snowfall record on Feb 26, 2004 of 11.6”. This was also the 3rd biggest one-day total on record.

 

The storm total at the airport was 13.2 “ the 3rd biggest storm in city history.

 

The heaviest amounts were just south of Uptown Charlotte in south Charlotte and  into York County. Rock Hill and Winthrop University recorded about 22” of snow. This was York Counties biggest snow on record and a top 3 storm in South Carolina state history.

 

All photos courtesy of Brad Panovich Blog:

 

 

 

 

[Brick Tamland]

It was the excitement of the extremely strong El Nino that had the attention of many and warm water being  centered in the W Pacific instead of the E Pacific. JB explained how this could (and did) lead to a +PNA (West NA ridge). What JB and others may not have taken into account is that if the NAO stays positive, there is nothing to slow down the strong STJ flow and allow enough cold to dive south to interact with the STJ to produce winter storms.

 

WRT a La Nina and a +NAO. That scenario scares me. It has SE ridge written all over it. Everyone complains about this winter, but I will take it over sunny and 65 everyday. That is a great spring or fall, but a very bad winter IMO.

 

If all we are going to get is one meager snow/ice storm and a lot of rain, then I would much rather have sunny and 65 all day. No point in having precip or cold in winter unless it brings snow with it.

 

At least the severe season looks more exciting. We had more thunderstorms here this winter than snow storms, and already had a severe weather outbreak.

[Brick Tamland]

Realist forecasting ftw!     Cheeze has those same skills too btw  

 

It's not popular to forecast warm and wet instead of cold and snowy        

 

There were several mets forecasting a snowy winter here that were not doing it just to be popular. I don't think that is why Allan Huffman forecasted it. They had legitimate reasons to forecast it. It would be better to know why their forecasts didn't work out instead of just passing it off as people trying to be popular or hyping things for a paid site. Not everyone that forecasted a snowy winter here has a paid site.

[packbacker]

If all we are going to get is one meager snow/ice storm and a lot of rain, then I would much rather have sunny and 65 all day. No point in having precip or cold in winter unless it brings snow with it.

 

At least the severe season looks more exciting. We had more thunderstorms here this winter than snow storms, and already had a severe weather outbreak.

 

Yep, which is why I am looking forward to a big nina next winter.  Either we block and we snow or we are warm/dry.   None of this +PNA crap where we hope for a mixing sleet storm or we watch cutter after cutter to our west because of no blocking.

[packbacker]

A few of our past nina events.  No massive ridge in the west, but it can snow, it's called a -NAO.

[packbacker]

Anniversary of Charlotte Area 24" Snow

 

February 26-27 2004

 

From WX Brad Blog

 

http://wxbrad.com/10-years-ago-today-we-saw-almost-2-of-snow/

 

Records set during this storm:

 

Charlotte set a daily snowfall record on Feb 26, 2004 of 11.6”. This was also the 3rd biggest one-day total on record.

 

The storm total at the airport was 13.2 “ the 3rd biggest storm in city history.

 

The heaviest amounts were just south of Uptown Charlotte in south Charlotte and  into York County. Rock Hill and Winthrop University recorded about 22” of snow. This was York Counties biggest snow on record and a top 3 storm in South Carolina state history.

 

All photos courtesy of Brad Panovich Blog:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great event!  But wait, no ridge in the west but nice -NAO.

[Steven_1974]

I guess I'm weird, I don't find the death and destruction of severe weather like tornadoes et al to be something to look forward to. I guess that is why I don't frequent the boards much during those times (although I do find tracking long running Hurricanes to be interesting). When it is all said and done, I hope we don't have any devastating storms which can surprise and destroy people and things. I suppose getting the word out so people don't get hurt a noble cause however. 

 

Not weird at all. I completely agree with what you said.

[packbacker]

What was it, a week ago we thought the first days of March we would have a threat.

 

 

 

 

Now we are going to see this.

 

[Brick Tamland]

If a winter storm threat shows up first outside 7 days, it's probably not going to happen. Has to pop up first inside 7 days at least to be taken seriously.

[Jon]

Agreed, I have noticed that several times over the past few months. It's normally the same users.

Neverless, it is quite morbid.

Give me a break. This is a weather forum. You're calling out people and saying they are morbid? Why would that be morbid? They aren't pleasured by death and destruction, they like the science aspect of severe weather and the ferocity of mother nature. If it was morbid they would say "man I really hope the EF5 tears through a town that would be awesome." It doesn't fit the definition of morbid.

 

This is argument that continues to get recycled every single severe season on these forums. These storms are going to happen whether or not these folks post soundings and hodographs that show PDS tors and get all excited. Not posting about it won't simply make the event go away, if anything it's preparing folks. TV meteorologists frequent the boards and they are the ones responsible for warning the public. I just never understand this point. If it makes you feel uncomfortable, log off. No one argued this point with Sandy or Katrina, somehow hurricanes are immune and it's OK to rant and rave about a Cat 5 landfall destroying a big city. 

[frazdaddy]

Give me a break. This is a weather forum. You're calling out people and saying they are morbid? Why would that be morbid? They aren't pleasured by death and destruction, they like the science aspect of severe weather and the ferocity of mother nature. If it was morbid they would say "man I really hope the EF5 tears through a town that would be awesome." It doesn't fit the definition of morbid.

 

This is argument that continues to get recycled every single severe season on these forums. These storms are going to happen whether or not these folks post soundings and hodographs that show PDS tors and get all excited. Not posting about it won't simply make the event go away, if anything it's preparing folks. TV meteorologists frequent the boards and they are the ones responsible for warning the public. I just never understand this point. If it makes you feel uncomfortable, log off. No one argued this point with Sandy or Katrina, somehow hurricanes are immune and it's OK to rant and rave about a Cat 5 landfall destroying a big city.

Great post Jon.

[Jon]

What was it, a week ago we thought the first days of March we would have a threat.

 

 

Now we are going to see this.

 

 

Yep. First week of march had a chance, I wasn't sold on it but it didn't look bad initially. We'll get cold during this time frame but it will be because of storms bombing across NE and backside cold. Some people will look at the means and think the trough or 850's and think we have a chance, but the cold is just coming on the backside of a bomb. Not our system. I'm always reluctant to cancel winter before March even starts (I usually wait until March 15th), but this looks bad. Nothing about the upcoming pattern screams even a suppressed track. For the march event I was relying heavily on the PV swinging down and phasing, that's what we need to cash in this March and that's like throwing a penny in a fountain and wishing for a million dollars. 

[mackerel_sky]

What was it, a week ago we thought the first days of March we would have a threat.

Now we are going to see this.

Congrats Florida!

[packbacker]

Yep. First week of march had a chance, I wasn't sold on it but it didn't look bad initially. We'll get cold during this time frame but it will be because of storms bombing across NE and backside cold. Some people will look at the means and think the trough or 850's and think we have a chance, but the cold is just coming on the backside of a bomb. Not our system. I'm always reluctant to cancel winter before March even starts (I usually wait until March 15th), but this looks bad. Nothing about the upcoming pattern screams even a suppressed track. For the march event I was relying heavily on the PV swinging down and phasing, that's what we need to cash in this March and that's like throwing a penny in a fountain and wishing for a million dollars. 

 

You and me both, I really thought an event would occur, even it was a slushy inch or two.  At this point banking a clunker of a winter is always good, odds are we won't clunk forever.  Although, we do have a lot clunkers banked 

 

To be honest, I haven't really looked at the pattern on the ensembles to much, but from what I am seeing it looks like cutter, then we cool down, then another cutter, cool down.  Typical spring/wet nino weather.

[Jon]

You and me both, I really thought an event would occur, even it was a slushy inch or two.  At this point banking a clunker of a winter is always good, odds are we won't clunk forever.  Although, we do have a lot clunkers banked 

 

To be honest, I haven't really looked at the pattern on the ensembles to much, but from what I am seeing it looks like cutter, then we cool down, then another cutter, cool down.  Typical spring/wet nino weather.

Yeah the overall pattern doesn't even hit at maybe a chance, even if the models can't really nail down much for the time period they say enough, so you're not that far off. It was one thing when we were getting these overrunning solutions with real cold and 3 day snows on the fantasy runs, and the fact that they stayed there made me a bit optimistic. Then the Euro caved to the GFS on the PV drop and I was like "say no more!"...but it was all a facade and now we can go back to being miserable. I got 0.1" on the season...unbelievable. I should have anticipated the moisture overwhelming the cold. Oh well, great great year for learning about Ninos. Hopefully we can get a decent cold blast next weekend so I can make a trip up to Sugar to see some powder, even if it's snow machine generated. 

[IWC]

Yep. First week of march had a chance, I wasn't sold on it but it didn't look bad initially. We'll get cold during this time frame but it will be because of storms bombing across NE and backside cold. Some people will look at the means and think the trough or 850's and think we have a chance, but the cold is just coming on the backside of a bomb. Not our system. I'm always reluctant to cancel winter before March even starts (I usually wait until March 15th), but this looks bad. Nothing about the upcoming pattern screams even a suppressed track. For the march event I was relying heavily on the PV swinging down and phasing, that's what we need to cash in this March and that's like throwing a penny in a fountain and wishing for a million dollars. 

Jon, Well said. I'm disappointed but you call it like it is... Better luck for us next year..

[Cold Rain]

Solid D this winter.  A major ice storm doesn't raise the grade very much.  From an F+ to a D is about all it can lift the final score.  Winter is over.

[Jon]

and just on time, the 12z GFS tries to give NC mountains/foothills a clipper on 3/4... Stop it GFS we are done, dang it!