February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[Tacoma]

From KGSP.....well this sounds rather ominous for next week. Good ol spring El Ninos in the SE. Looks like we missed the increase in winter storms this year but we will get the severe spring...

BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER

TROF WILL BE DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND CUTTING OFF

ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER LOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL

EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...PROBABLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER

FAIRLY VIGOROUS-LOOKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERHAPS ON A

SIMILAR TRACK TO THE RECENT STORM. UNLIKE THE LAST ONE THOUGH...IT

LOOKS LIKE NO PARENT HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...AS HIGH

PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST ON

WEDNESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN UN-WEDGED AS THE LOW PASSES

TO OUR NW...WHICH MIGHT HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SIGNIFICANT

WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT FOR

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WARM ADVECTION.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON

DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

DEPRESSING

[CherokeeGA]

From KGSP.....well this sounds rather ominous for next week. Good ol spring El Ninos in the SE. Looks like we missed the increase in winter storms this year but we will get the severe spring...

BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER

TROF WILL BE DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND CUTTING OFF

ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER LOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL

EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...PROBABLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER

FAIRLY VIGOROUS-LOOKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERHAPS ON A

SIMILAR TRACK TO THE RECENT STORM. UNLIKE THE LAST ONE THOUGH...IT

LOOKS LIKE NO PARENT HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...AS HIGH

PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST ON

WEDNESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN UN-WEDGED AS THE LOW PASSES

TO OUR NW...WHICH MIGHT HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SIGNIFICANT

WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT FOR

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WARM ADVECTION.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON

DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

 

I am genuinely concerned about this spring.  Coming off the 2007 Nino is the spring we had to replace the house roof due to storm damage.  April 1998 was particularly nasty here too, lots of damage in NGa.

[Brick Tamland]

It sounds like the key ingredient missing from giving us a  lot of snow was the -NAO. We had tons of precip, but it just wasn't cold enough. So, the question I have is why didn't we get the -NAO? I guess a lot of mets thought we would have the -NAO and +PNA combo this winter, which usually gives us more snow, because a lot of mets were predicting 50% to 100% above average snowfall totals for the SE. What made them think we would get the -NAO, and what kept it from becoming reality?

[Shawn]

It's chilly and annoying out this way this morning with the wind.  Feels like just a sign of the season changing.  

 

Been noticing a couple bouts of severe possible, but more cold shots on the horizon.  While these colder shots will work out for some, I am not on board anymore.

 

If I learned anything this year, it was that my local forecast discussion from KCAE should have been trusted more-so than any kind of weather modeling or hype.

[mrdaddyman]

It's chilly and annoying out this way this morning with the wind.  Feels like just a sign of the season changing.  

 

Been noticing a couple bouts of severe possible, but more cold shots on the horizon.  While these colder shots will work out for some, I am not on board anymore.

 

If I learned anything this year, it was that my local forecast discussion from KCAE should have been trusted more-so than any kind of weather modeling or hype.

 

I think the mountains will score again before Spring but that's probably about it. I'm not going to get my hopes up for a winter storm around my area again until we get blocking to set up, whether it's this winter, next winter, or after that. We just can't seem to get the timing right without it.

[RubiksDestroyer]

JoeD on WB had a good writeup on the atlantic spoiling this winter.  The +NAO was a killer, we can't have a big ridge over the NE/NovaScotia and expect winter storms.  The +PNA is nice but it doesn't drive winter weather down here, the NAO does.  If you look at the nino's with the -AMO state (late 50's to late 80's) you can see the difference with the +AMO/nino's that were ratters since then.  2016 will add to that.  Hopefully the AMO flips the next few years.

 

Edit:  I should preface that this is for Raleigh.  I know I am going to get a bunch of responses arguing there locale for specific winters.

 

It's interesting to note that the -AMO Nino years had a -PNA as a whole, yet they had a much better pattern for the east. On the other hand, the winters with a +AMO had a +PNA, but a crappier pattern out east.

 

In addition, someone earlier this winter (it might've even been you) pointed out that Nino winters with a very dry southern California were generally less snowy for us than those with a wet California. Indeed, southern California has been dry this winter. I'm curious if the dry California/less snow thing could actually be a side-effect of a +PNA, as it forces the storms to track further north, instead of sliding across the southern US. In this case, it would imply that during strong El Nino winters, a neutral to slightly negative PNA may be better, as it would allow the STJ to flow uninhibited.

 

Of course, this is also assuming that we get a -NAO/AO along with the PNA. Without that, it's just a plain bad pattern.

[FallsLake]

It's interesting to note that the -AMO Nino years had a -PNA as a whole, yet they had a much better pattern for the east. On the other hand, the winters with a +AMO had a +PNA, but a crappier pattern out east.

 

In addition, someone earlier this winter (it might've even been you) pointed out that Nino winters with a very dry southern California were generally less snowy for us than those with a wet California. Indeed, southern California has been dry this winter. I'm curious if the dry California/less snow thing could actually be a side-effect of a +PNA, as it forces the storms to track further north, instead of sliding across the southern US. In this case, it would imply that during strong El Nino winters, a neutral to slightly negative PNA may be better, as it would allow the STJ to flow uninhibited.

 

Of course, this is also assuming that we get a -NAO/AO along with the PNA. Without that, it's just a plain bad pattern.

I've always considered the PNA to be one of the most crucial elements for eastern cold/snow. We've had plenty of storms in the past where we had +PNA, -AO, and a +NAO. Don't remember too many with a -PNA and -NAO. -PNA would tend to allow Pacific air to flood the US; most of the time that is game over.  

[RubiksDestroyer]

I've always considered the PNA to be one of the most crucial elements for eastern cold/snow. We've had plenty of storms in the past where we had +PNA, -AO, and a +NAO. Don't remember too many with a -PNA and -NAO. -PNA would tend to allow Pacific air to flood the US; most of the time that is game over.  

That's very true. I just noticed that the -AMO Nino years appeared to have a neutral/negative PNA, yet looked better for us snow-wise, whereas the +AMO Nino years had a strong signal for a +PNA, yet a worse pattern for the eastern US, and a much weaker STJ.

[packbacker]

I've always considered the PNA to be one of the most crucial elements for eastern cold/snow. We've had plenty of storms in the past where we had +PNA, -AO, and a +NAO. Don't remember too many with a -PNA and -NAO. -PNA would tend to allow Pacific air to flood the US; most of the time that is game over.  

 

I would much rather have a -PNA/-AO/-NAO then a +PNA/-AO/+NAO.   Tough to argue that the NAO isn't the main driver, for Raleigh atleast, we have been in a predominately +NAO since 1990 and we are at our lowest 10/30 year snowfall average since records have been kept.  During that time we have had many +PNA winters.  From mid 50's to mid 80's our 30 year average peaked at almost 9", no secret it was in a predominate -NAO period (see chart below).  I know people are going to come at this with but in blah year it was +NAO and we got snow.  We can snow in +NAO's but we won't be able to have consistent snowy winters until that changes.

 

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php

 

[UpStateCAD]

I would much rather have a -PNA/-AO/-NAO then a +PNA/-AO/+NAO.   Tough to argue that the NAO isn't the main driver, for Raleigh atleast, we have been in a predominately +NAO since 1990 and we are at our lowest 10/30 year snowfall average since records have been kept.  During that time we have had many +PNA winters.  From mid 50's to mid 80's our 30 year average peaked at almost 9", no secret it was in a predominate -NAO period (see chart below).  I know people are going to come at this with but in blah year it was +NAO and we got snow.  We can snow in +NAO's but we won't be able to have consistent snowy winters until that changes.

 

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php

 

Good info Pack

[Brick Tamland]

And now the GFS and Canadian completely flip for next week.

[LithiaWx]

It sounds like the key ingredient missing from giving us a lot of snow was the -NAO. We had tons of precip, but it just wasn't cold enough. So, the question I have is why didn't we get the -NAO? I guess a lot of mets thought we would have the -NAO and +PNA combo this winter, which usually gives us more snow, because a lot of mets were predicting 50% to 100% above average snowfall totals for the SE. What made them think we would get the -NAO, and what kept it from becoming reality?

Blogger mets have to hype every season or they will lose subscribers. How many of them have released winter forecasts that are above normal for temps and below normal for snow? Energy mets who make a living based on accurate forecasts were predicting a warmer than average winter way way back. Go read some of NRGjeffs posts in the TN forum. He is a private net not a blogger and e nailed it. Mr Bob did very well too.

[Brick Tamland]

Blogger mets have to hype every season or they will lose subscribers. How many of them have released winter forecasts that are above normal for temps and below normal for snow? Energy mets who make a living based on accurate forecasts were predicting a warmer than average winter way way back. Go read some of NRGjeffs posts in the TN forum. He is a private net not a blogger and e nailed it. Mr Bob did very well too.

 

It wasn't just bloggers. There were a few mets on here who don't have pay sites that forecasted the same thing. I don't think they just made up the idea that we would have a +PNA and -NAO this winter. It would be nice to know why the -NAO didn't work out like they thought it would.

[FallsLake]

^^Pack I agree that a -NAO is a great thing to increase snow chances; but when have we had a snowy year that featured a predominate -PNA? Probably not many and definitely less than predominate +NAO winters.  

[mackerel_sky]

I've seen what a strong niño and a crappy Atlantic winter can do, let's see what a Nina and a crappy Atlantic can do this coming winter! Really don't think it could get much worse! I'd rate this winter as a D,, not an F , because of the Jan storm, and the monster cad last week or so, but Feb as a whole, was very dissapointing in my back yard, after the pre winter hype. Most analogs had Feb being the coldest, snowiest month this winter!

[franklin NCwx]

^^Pack I agree that a -NAO is a great thing to increase snow chances; but when have we had a snowy year that featured a predominate -PNA? Probably not many and definitely less than predominate +NAO winters.

2010-11. That was also the last year we had a sustained-nao

[Shawn]

It wasn't just bloggers. There were a few mets on here who don't have pay sites that forecasted the same thing. I don't think they just made up the idea that we would have a +PNA and -NAO this winter. It would be nice to know why the -NAO didn't work out like they thought it would.

 

Overall, hype can cause a lot of unnecessary expectations for everyone.  While people like JB should be taken with a grain of salt, one met will forecast a good year, then the next, and it snowballs into a big hype fest.

 

There were many outlooks from more reputable people not needing to line their pockets off Winter storms showing about what we experienced.  We just kinda threw their ideas away because we wanted cold and snowy.  Just like we do with the models.

 

Basically, after these last two Winters were supposed to be nice, I am no longer letting my wishes cloud what makes the most sense.  I think we all should focus more on what can go wrong instead of what can go well.

[packbacker]

^^Pack I agree that a -NAO is a great thing to increase snow chances; but when have we had a snowy year that featured a predominate -PNA? Probably not many and definitely less than predominate +NAO winters.  

Plenty of -PNA/-NAO winters that have been blockbusters for us.  It is really unarguable, we are at our lowest 10/30 yr snowfall with +NAO/+PNA predominately pattern since 1990.  Our last above average snowfall winters was 09/10 and 10/11 due to -NAO.  

 

I am definitely not saying I would rather have a -PNA but a -NAO/-PNA is way better then a +NAO/+PNA, it's not even close.  Sure, give me a -AO/-NAO/+PNA, or even a neutral PNA.

 

Snowy -PNA winters, all double digit + snowfall winters.  This isn't the entire list, just off the top of my head I know that late 50's and 60's were -NAO and had some -PNA winters.

 

1959, 1962, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1969, 1979

 

 

[Brick Tamland]

Overall, hype can cause a lot of unnecessary expectations for everyone.  While people like JB should be taken with a grain of salt, one met will forecast a good year, then the next, and it snowballs into a big hype fest.

 

There were many outlooks from more reputable people not needing to line their pockets off Winter storms showing about what we experienced.  We just kinda threw their ideas away because we wanted cold and snowy.  Just like we do with the models.

 

Basically, after these last two Winters were supposed to be nice, I am no longer letting my wishes cloud what makes the most sense.  I think we all should focus more on what can go wrong instead of what can go well.

 

And there were reputable mets who don't have pay sets who forecasted an above average winter. Allan Huffman was one. They didn't just say it to hype things. So it would be good to find out what went wrong with their forecasts and why we didn't see the -NAO that was predicted. It's not all about being cynical and blaming it on people just hyping things to get paid.

[Brick Tamland]

Anyway, winter isn't over yet. Doesn't look like the warm up is going to stay around long, the models keep flipping back and forth, and now they are starting to become more interesting again.

[FallsLake]

Here's a good read, but it is for the DC area.  It only discusses the optimal winter pattern in terms of the PNA and AO. +PNA and -AO are what you want for a big snow.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/15/inside-the-patterns-that-may-govern-our-winter-weather/

  

[packbacker]

And there were reputable mets who don't have pay sets who forecasted an above average winter. Allan Huffman was one. They didn't just say it to hype things. So it would be good to find out what went wrong with their forecasts and why we didn't see the -NAO that was predicted. It's not all about being cynical and blaming it on people just hyping things to get paid.

Great post...many variables can go into support of -NAO which didn't go our way. Unfortunate, as that busted any cold/snowy winter outlooks. Seems like every winter the expectation is for a -NAO but we knew back in Nov the PV would be extremely strong, the QBO/solar combo was a killer. Also Atlantic SST's weren't great. I am sure there others. We did get a temp -NAO in mid Jan which led to the east coast blizzard.

Also, people (me included), should take anything JB says with a grain of salt.

[TiltedStorm]

Anyway, winter isn't over yet. Doesn't look like the warm up is going to stay around long, the models keep flipping back and forth, and now they are starting to become more interesting again.

What do you mean interesting? What are you looking at?

[mackerel_sky]

What do you mean interesting? What are you looking at?

The New England forum!?

Anywho, GSP discussion said something about a strong storm system coming through at the mid/end of next week and would have NO cold air around and no wedge, so maybe Brick was referring to the severe aspect of the possible storm!?

[frazdaddy]

The New England forum!?

Anywho, GSP discussion said something about a strong storm system coming through at the mid/end of next week and would have NO cold air around and no wedge, so maybe Brick was referring to the severe aspect of the possible storm!?

I saw some severe possibilities.

[Batman]

It was the excitement of the extremely strong El Nino that had the attention of many and warm water being  centered in the W Pacific instead of the E Pacific. JB explained how this could (and did) lead to a +PNA (West NA ridge). What JB and others may not have taken into account is that if the NAO stays positive, there is nothing to slow down the strong STJ flow and allow enough cold to dive south to interact with the STJ to produce winter storms.

 

WRT a La Nina and a +NAO. That scenario scares me. It has SE ridge written all over it. Everyone complains about this winter, but I will take it over sunny and 65 everyday. That is a great spring or fall, but a very bad winter IMO.

[downeastnc]

After yesterday I am ready for severe and cane season....we had several landfalls in 98 and 99 afte the last super nino....wonder how that plays into this summers cane season.....18Z GFS further south with the March 3-4 storm, now its a hit for NE instead of being north of Maine....big shift south

[Shawn]

After yesterday I am ready for severe and cane season....we had several landfalls in 98 and 99 afte the last super nino....wonder how that plays into this summers cane season.....18Z GFS further south with the March 3-4 storm, now its a hit for NE instead of being north of Maine....big shift south

 

I must admit after tracking the severe that actually happens more commonly for us yesterday, I enjoyed it much more than any possible snow threat this year.  I'm not sold on the next bout of severe of course.  Hurricane season is looking promising to be more eventful for the SE too!

[arandall]

I must admit after tracking the severe that actually happens more commonly for us yesterday, I enjoyed it much more than any possible snow threat this year.  I'm not sold on the next bout of severe of course.  Hurricane season is looking promising to be more eventful for the SE too!

 

Have to say that's an interesting choice of words..

[MichaelJ]

I guess I'm weird, I don't find the death and destruction of severe weather like tornadoes et al to be something to look forward to. I guess that is why I don't frequent the boards much during those times (although I do find tracking long running Hurricanes to be interesting). When it is all said and done, I hope we don't have any devastating storms which can surprise and destroy people and things. I suppose getting the word out so people don't get hurt a noble cause however.