Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

Recommended Posts

I've still got standing water in low places from Dec's 18 inches, and Jan and Feb have just exacerbated the situation.  I'll be having to add some motor oil in a couple of weeks, to kill off the mosquito larvae.   The water table under me is so high it has no where to go.  My croquet court has been under water since early Dec.  Still, it beats the drought I've endured since the century turned over.  The big disappointment this winter has been the cold and all this rain haven't hooked up.  Big, big possibilities shot, but that's life in the south.  It's been like this all my life, and unless the next ice age kicks in, things won't change.  Freezing precip, of any import, in Ga is still a big anomaly most winters, and the best set up will usually not produce :)  T

Tony... you are EXACTLY right. I remember some really bad winters as far back as my college days (and that's pretty damn far...). Maybe we'll get lucky next year, maybe not, but like you said, that's life in the south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The frustration from everyone is expected, why I took a break back in early January, just didn't want to watch this unfold.  But, I did think we would see something in February and/or into early March but that looks to be fading.  Good news is we are almost done with winter, outside of the mountains, and there is always next winter.  Maybe we can get another 1996/2000/2011 type nina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My goal is to live in a snowier climate by next winter ( or move to Florida where I never have to worry about getting my hopes up). Living in the in-between zone ( the area between places that get snow every year and places that never get snow) really sucks. I envy you people in TN and NC and the people in FL ! Even in the crappiest of winters ( like this winter), most of you people in NC and TN had at least enough snow or sleet to measure. You guys don't know how good you have it compared to areas like Atlanta.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My goal is to live in a snowier climate by next winter ( or move to Florida where I never have to worry about getting my hopes up). Living in the in-between zone ( the area between places that get snow every year and places that never get snow) really sucks. I envy you people in TN and NC and the people in FL ! Even in the crappiest of winters ( like this winter), most of you people in NC and TN had at least enough snow or sleet to measure. You guys don't know how good you have it compared to areas like Atlanta.

 

Hey - Every once in a while an angel appears!

 

But it's fun watching and learning from Fla. You just have to live north of a certain line and west of a certain line, and cross your toes and fingers when Jon posts!

 

I do all 3!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JoeD on WB had a good writeup on the atlantic spoiling this winter.  The +NAO was a killer, we can't have a big ridge over the NE/NovaScotia and expect winter storms.  The +PNA is nice but it doesn't drive winter weather down here, the NAO does.  If you look at the nino's with the -AMO state (late 50's to late 80's) you can see the difference with the +AMO/nino's that were ratters since then.  2016 will add to that.  Hopefully the AMO flips the next few years.

 

Edit:  I should preface that this is for Raleigh.  I know I am going to get a bunch of responses arguing there locale for specific winters.

post-2311-0-66441200-1456373284_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-04398200-1456373289_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This winter is a wrap-thank God!!! Nice warm up coming next week....daylight savings time in a couple more weeks. This thing is done!!

Ugh. That just means we are getting closer and closer to an unbearably hot and humid 4 months of summer. I'm already looking forward to fall. Most people hiberate in the winter. I hibernate in the summer lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although the winter is not over, I see my chances for snow on the ground about gone. As I look back, I see three things as the major factors in my lack of snow this winter.

 

  • Strong El Nino. I allowed my self to be fooled by folks claiming that this strong el nino was different than others and it would give a different result. The difference in the placement of the warm water in the Pacific may have kept it from being a very mild winter from start to finish, but it was still a strong El Nino. Strong El Ninos lead to a strong STJ. A strong STJ with no blocking does not allow for enough cold air to penetrate far enough south to give us many snow chances down my way. The weather can be cool and wet. Below normal temps and above normal Precip sounds great, but without access to much artic air, chances for snow in central GA will be slim.
  • +NAO. As mentioned before, With nothing to slow the flow, the strong Nino induced jet controls the pattern and does not allow enough of a buckle to usher in enough cold for it to snow this far south. Over night lows reinforce this thought as well. I hit the teens one time for a low. 19! Below 25 maybe 3 or 4 times tops.
  • I live in Tyrone, GA. and average 2" of snow per season! The way you arrive at that average is by having plenty of winters with no snow. Having lived here 24 years now, I have experienced many snowless winters. I have grown used to it and accept it. While I love snow and wish for it every winter, at 48 years old, I am a realist and realize if I get disappointed every time a snow chance fails, I will spend most of the time every winter disappointed. I choose not to do that.

Nobody can claim that we have not had dynamic storms this year. We have had plenty of those. This has been one of the wettest winters I have ever experienced. Just not enough artic air to meet up with any of these storm systems to produce snow this far south. Maybe we sneak something in at the end with a strong ULL or short quick buckle in the jet, but I think time may be out for my neck of the woods.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although the winter is not over, I see my chances for snow on the ground about gone. As I look back, I see three things as the major factors in my lack of snow this winter.

 

  • Strong El Nino. I allowed my self to be fooled by folks claiming that this strong el nino was different than others and it would give a different result. The difference in the placement of the warm water in the Pacific may have kept it from being a very mild winter from start to finish, but it was still a strong El Nino. Strong El Ninos lead to a strong STJ. A strong STJ with no blocking does not allow for enough cold air to penetrate far enough south to give us many snow chances down my way. The weather can be cool and wet. Below normal temps and above normal Precip sounds great, but without access to much artic air, chances for snow in central GA will be slim.
  • +NAO. As mentioned before, With nothing to slow the flow, the strong Nino induced jet controls the pattern and does not allow enough of a buckle to usher in enough cold for it to snow this far south. Over night lows reinforce this thought as well. I hit the teens one time for a low. 19! Below 25 maybe 3 or 4 times tops.
  • I live in Tyrone, GA. and average 2" of snow per season! The way you arrive at that average is by having plenty of winters with no snow. Having lived here 24 years now, I have experienced many snowless winters. I have grown used to it and accept it. While I love snow and wish for it every winter, at 48 years old, I am a realist and realize if I get disappointed every time a snow chance fails, I will spend most of the time every winter disappointed. I choose not to do that.

Nobody can claim that we have not had dynamic storms this year. We have had plenty of those. This has been one of the wettest winters I have ever experienced. Just not enough artic air to meet up with any of these storm systems to produce snow this far south. Maybe we sneak something in at the end with a strong ULL or short quick buckle in the jet, but I think time may be out for my neck of the woods.

Have your winters been as bad as mine the last 5 years ? The only winter in the last 5 winters where I've seen any significant snow was in 2013-14. 11-12, 12-13, 14-15, 15-16 were all pretty much nothing. 4 out of 5 winters with little to no snow is unusual even for my area.  It just sucks that we live in an area that gets plenty of cold air, plenty of precip, and no snow. Might as well just live in FL where its warm and sunny. They get about as much snow as we do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From KGSP.....well this sounds rather ominous for next week. Good ol spring El Ninos in the SE. Looks like we missed the increase in winter storms this year but we will get the severe spring...

BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER

TROF WILL BE DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND CUTTING OFF

ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER LOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL

EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...PROBABLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER

FAIRLY VIGOROUS-LOOKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERHAPS ON A

SIMILAR TRACK TO THE RECENT STORM. UNLIKE THE LAST ONE THOUGH...IT

LOOKS LIKE NO PARENT HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...AS HIGH

PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST ON

WEDNESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN UN-WEDGED AS THE LOW PASSES

TO OUR NW...WHICH MIGHT HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SIGNIFICANT

WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT FOR

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WARM ADVECTION.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON

DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...