DaculaWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I've still got standing water in low places from Dec's 18 inches, and Jan and Feb have just exacerbated the situation. I'll be having to add some motor oil in a couple of weeks, to kill off the mosquito larvae. The water table under me is so high it has no where to go. My croquet court has been under water since early Dec. Still, it beats the drought I've endured since the century turned over. The big disappointment this winter has been the cold and all this rain haven't hooked up. Big, big possibilities shot, but that's life in the south. It's been like this all my life, and unless the next ice age kicks in, things won't change. Freezing precip, of any import, in Ga is still a big anomaly most winters, and the best set up will usually not produce T Tony... you are EXACTLY right. I remember some really bad winters as far back as my college days (and that's pretty damn far...). Maybe we'll get lucky next year, maybe not, but like you said, that's life in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The frustration from everyone is expected, why I took a break back in early January, just didn't want to watch this unfold. But, I did think we would see something in February and/or into early March but that looks to be fading. Good news is we are almost done with winter, outside of the mountains, and there is always next winter. Maybe we can get another 1996/2000/2011 type nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 But the 500MB pattern ? The models were going to come around ?? I guess we are chasing ghosts If this belongs anywhere at all it is in banter. Keep it out of the discussion threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I don't think it trolling, it's a discussion , but thanks for your input! Let me give my input. Tone down the sarcasm and the trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Let me give my input. Tone down the sarcasm and the trolling. Thank you for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 My goal is to live in a snowier climate by next winter ( or move to Florida where I never have to worry about getting my hopes up). Living in the in-between zone ( the area between places that get snow every year and places that never get snow) really sucks. I envy you people in TN and NC and the people in FL ! Even in the crappiest of winters ( like this winter), most of you people in NC and TN had at least enough snow or sleet to measure. You guys don't know how good you have it compared to areas like Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eps has trended very far south for the storm next Thursday-Friday. Power went out just now from the high wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eps has trended very far south for the storm next Thursday-Friday. Power went out just now from the high wind. Yes, but is there cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yes, but is there cold air? Cold air is almost always a function of track. If you are north and west of the low pressure system, then you will be in the cold(er) sector. If you are south and east, then you will be in the warm(er) section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eps has trended very far south for the storm next Thursday-Friday. Power went out just now from the high wind. Not really saying that much seeing as how the eps has been all over the place lately Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12Z GGEM close to something late next week: We'll see if it shows on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Really dead in here. One more chance of cold air first week in March then it's onto a rainy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It thundered today, so we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 At least it's not showing summer drought...fantasy storms still alive and kicking on fresh model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My goal is to live in a snowier climate by next winter ( or move to Florida where I never have to worry about getting my hopes up). Living in the in-between zone ( the area between places that get snow every year and places that never get snow) really sucks. I envy you people in TN and NC and the people in FL ! Even in the crappiest of winters ( like this winter), most of you people in NC and TN had at least enough snow or sleet to measure. You guys don't know how good you have it compared to areas like Atlanta. Hey - Every once in a while an angel appears! But it's fun watching and learning from Fla. You just have to live north of a certain line and west of a certain line, and cross your toes and fingers when Jon posts! I do all 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 At least it's not showing summer drought...fantasy storms still alive and kicking on fresh model guidance. dang, a low in central Florida and still rain in ATL? How far south do we need for it to snow in ATL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 dang, a low in central Florida and still rain in ATL? How far south do we need for it to snow in ATL ? Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Cuba Guatemala...seriously though if that trended to NW...maybe something...just feel that we may have one more winter event before spring arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 dang, a low in central Florida and still rain in ATL? How far south do we need for it to snow in ATL ? the old dreaded 10-14 days out, I give up on this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Glad we don't go by "feelings" forecasting weather. Or do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Glad we don't go by "feelings" forecasting weather. Or do we? Every freaking day......well I got one thing to tell ya, dont be bringing those feely forecasts around here next winter. Not up in here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This winter is a wrap-thank God!!! Nice warm up coming next week....daylight savings time in a couple more weeks. This thing is done!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This winter is a wrap-thank God!!! Nice warm up coming next week....daylight savings time in a couple more weeks. This thing is done!! No more sleepless nights also. Don't forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 JoeD on WB had a good writeup on the atlantic spoiling this winter. The +NAO was a killer, we can't have a big ridge over the NE/NovaScotia and expect winter storms. The +PNA is nice but it doesn't drive winter weather down here, the NAO does. If you look at the nino's with the -AMO state (late 50's to late 80's) you can see the difference with the +AMO/nino's that were ratters since then. 2016 will add to that. Hopefully the AMO flips the next few years. Edit: I should preface that this is for Raleigh. I know I am going to get a bunch of responses arguing there locale for specific winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Nina's since 89 have been better then the nino's for snow, on average. 50/50 shot based on past 30 years. Preface, for Raleigh. Snowy Nina's: 89, 96, 2000, 2011 Non-snowy Nina: 99, 2001, 2008, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This winter is a wrap-thank God!!! Nice warm up coming next week....daylight savings time in a couple more weeks. This thing is done!! Ugh. That just means we are getting closer and closer to an unbearably hot and humid 4 months of summer. I'm already looking forward to fall. Most people hiberate in the winter. I hibernate in the summer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 With the type of cold blasts I'm seeing in March I would believe for some winter is not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Although the winter is not over, I see my chances for snow on the ground about gone. As I look back, I see three things as the major factors in my lack of snow this winter. Strong El Nino. I allowed my self to be fooled by folks claiming that this strong el nino was different than others and it would give a different result. The difference in the placement of the warm water in the Pacific may have kept it from being a very mild winter from start to finish, but it was still a strong El Nino. Strong El Ninos lead to a strong STJ. A strong STJ with no blocking does not allow for enough cold air to penetrate far enough south to give us many snow chances down my way. The weather can be cool and wet. Below normal temps and above normal Precip sounds great, but without access to much artic air, chances for snow in central GA will be slim. +NAO. As mentioned before, With nothing to slow the flow, the strong Nino induced jet controls the pattern and does not allow enough of a buckle to usher in enough cold for it to snow this far south. Over night lows reinforce this thought as well. I hit the teens one time for a low. 19! Below 25 maybe 3 or 4 times tops. I live in Tyrone, GA. and average 2" of snow per season! The way you arrive at that average is by having plenty of winters with no snow. Having lived here 24 years now, I have experienced many snowless winters. I have grown used to it and accept it. While I love snow and wish for it every winter, at 48 years old, I am a realist and realize if I get disappointed every time a snow chance fails, I will spend most of the time every winter disappointed. I choose not to do that. Nobody can claim that we have not had dynamic storms this year. We have had plenty of those. This has been one of the wettest winters I have ever experienced. Just not enough artic air to meet up with any of these storm systems to produce snow this far south. Maybe we sneak something in at the end with a strong ULL or short quick buckle in the jet, but I think time may be out for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Although the winter is not over, I see my chances for snow on the ground about gone. As I look back, I see three things as the major factors in my lack of snow this winter. Strong El Nino. I allowed my self to be fooled by folks claiming that this strong el nino was different than others and it would give a different result. The difference in the placement of the warm water in the Pacific may have kept it from being a very mild winter from start to finish, but it was still a strong El Nino. Strong El Ninos lead to a strong STJ. A strong STJ with no blocking does not allow for enough cold air to penetrate far enough south to give us many snow chances down my way. The weather can be cool and wet. Below normal temps and above normal Precip sounds great, but without access to much artic air, chances for snow in central GA will be slim. +NAO. As mentioned before, With nothing to slow the flow, the strong Nino induced jet controls the pattern and does not allow enough of a buckle to usher in enough cold for it to snow this far south. Over night lows reinforce this thought as well. I hit the teens one time for a low. 19! Below 25 maybe 3 or 4 times tops. I live in Tyrone, GA. and average 2" of snow per season! The way you arrive at that average is by having plenty of winters with no snow. Having lived here 24 years now, I have experienced many snowless winters. I have grown used to it and accept it. While I love snow and wish for it every winter, at 48 years old, I am a realist and realize if I get disappointed every time a snow chance fails, I will spend most of the time every winter disappointed. I choose not to do that. Nobody can claim that we have not had dynamic storms this year. We have had plenty of those. This has been one of the wettest winters I have ever experienced. Just not enough artic air to meet up with any of these storm systems to produce snow this far south. Maybe we sneak something in at the end with a strong ULL or short quick buckle in the jet, but I think time may be out for my neck of the woods. Have your winters been as bad as mine the last 5 years ? The only winter in the last 5 winters where I've seen any significant snow was in 2013-14. 11-12, 12-13, 14-15, 15-16 were all pretty much nothing. 4 out of 5 winters with little to no snow is unusual even for my area. It just sucks that we live in an area that gets plenty of cold air, plenty of precip, and no snow. Might as well just live in FL where its warm and sunny. They get about as much snow as we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 From KGSP.....well this sounds rather ominous for next week. Good ol spring El Ninos in the SE. Looks like we missed the increase in winter storms this year but we will get the severe spring... BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND CUTTING OFF ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER LOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...PROBABLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS-LOOKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERHAPS ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE RECENT STORM. UNLIKE THE LAST ONE THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE NO PARENT HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN UN-WEDGED AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NW...WHICH MIGHT HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WARM ADVECTION. WILL ALSO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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