Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ^ that's why I like the day 9 setup u As modeled. The first wave goes North and helps to create confluence with the following wave coming right behind it. 18z does just that Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z Euro para has a snowstorm Day 10. 18-24" for apps, 7-12" for the foothills, 3-6" Piedmont, Trace RDU. As I mentioned earlier it's a matter of time before the models drop a big one again. same old day 10 stuff, I've had it I think with this winter, was hoping all this rain coming was suppose to be snow, but no cold air showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Jon, In 07 to 09 I was an avid reader of Henry Margusity (not sure spelled right) but I can remember when he would say thing like it has disappeared (storm) and a few days later he would have a headline, It's BACK(storm I'm thinking he was a model watcher like all of us. I'm guessing the models have always been had to follow. But some folks do it much better than others. And you seem to be developing that system for which leads me to look forward to your posts on here. Thanks for the hard work you and all the folks do in here. Make my job a lil easier in planing for a storm.Yep that's spelled right. I remember watching him as well back then (joined eastern in 2008). Thanks for the kind words, I appreciate it. I try not to be biased and say how it appears to me, whether folks interpret that as weenie or not it's what I'm seeing...I'm usually not posting if I think the pattern is bad. Anyway, last hoorah or not, this winter has been a great case study for El Niño winters and we should all go away with some new knowledge. I'm still hopeful in one last threat before we call it quits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Models can't agree on anything, and folks can't agree if the setup is good or not. You can have all the potential in the world and the best looking setup possible, but still doesn't mean we're going to get a win, and that is all that matters. Unless storms actually start showing up on the models inside seven days it's just chasing a ghost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The absence of the 50-50 low has been the killer this winter IMO. Last year we at least had a mimic 50-50 with one lp after another running up through far Eastern Canada connecting with the +nao. Therefore, the +nao couldn't act it's normal self either. Instead of wrapping the cold from Canada under it out into the north Atlantic , the lined up lp's to it's southwest funneled it southward into the mw/Ohio valley , ma and northern se sections. Of course, the tall western ridge worked in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Can someone please tell me what the Euro is showing for eastern TN for Thurs? I know the GFS is showing around an inch of snow up there thurs, just wondering what he Euro was showing. I'm leaving to go up in morning and coming back Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Can someone please tell me what the Euro is showing for eastern TN for Thurs? I know the GFS is showing around an inch of snow up there thurs, just wondering what he Euro was showing. I'm leaving to go up in morning and coming back Friday. 1-3"...the higher totals aren't that widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wow! The silence is deafening ! Guess the day 10-14 threat, went all rain on us!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 00z Euro has our storm with a 1035 high plowing SE west of the lakes but oddly the s/w transfers from just south of GA to off the NE coast and strengthens a lakes low over Vermont to 977mb. That's probably not the way it's going to go down. We really need a decently strong HP to dive down and the ridge out west to work out to shunt our shortwave south and not cut. While looking at the EPS mean it seems to think this will cut but the spread is so large it's not really trustworthy at this time. The 00z vs 06z here shows how much is undecided during this time period. 00z GFS --> clear cutter, ridge out west isn't tall...s/w digs but can't get south enough 06z GFS --> despite that the s/w splits into two with one headed to Mexico, look how much taller and stronger the ridge out west is. If the s/w didn't split this would have been a snow for NC at the least. The ridge is in Canada by day 9. Instead it turns into an App runner. People discouraged for this event have right to be. The overrunning event that started on 29th on a past run and then lasted through 3/2 was a incredibly long duration event and definitely a blip. So, to be fare it was always a 2/1-2/3 system and the overrunning snow on 2/29 has since disappeared. With that said it's still Day 8-9 at this point, we likely won't nail this one down until Monday. I know folks hate hearing that but the s/w doesn't come ashore until then. We may possibly get a "good enough" idea by Friday as we figure out what exactly the ridge will look like and see what kind of cold we're working with. The good news is the GEFS mean supports the 06z ridge NOT the 00z weaker ridge solution. So to break down the Last 4 GFS runs: 06z -> app runner 00z -> OK to Great Lakes cutter 18z -> Weak low suppressed in the SE, but rain 12z -> track over Raleigh 996mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wow! The silence is deafening ! Guess the day 10-14 threat, went all rain on us!? Yep. This is a great example of why it is pointless looking at models over five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One thing is consistent, the NW Atlantic ridge, that's about it it. Rinse and repeat. Maybe the 2nd week of March it will get booted out and the mountains can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yep. This is a great example of why it is pointless looking at models over five days out. Then it would be kind of pointless to have a forum about weather when you could just look at your local 5 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Via GSP AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL- 549 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ..THURSDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One thing is consistent, the NW Atlantic ridge, that's about it it. Rinse and repeat. Maybe the 2nd week of March it will get booted out and the mountains can score. What??? the mountains can / will score with most any set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What??? the mountains can / will score with most any set up. Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On a much happier note, than this craptastic dud of a winter, I am very much looking forward to next winters La Niña ! Everyone said our best, snowy winters were El Ninos, I have my doubts about that! But in some extensive research about La Nina's , I kept seeing winter of 1995-'96 brought up! That was a great winter down here! Atleast 4-5 events, lake effect snow off of Hartwell, had a day in the 20s with snizzle all day! I'm all in for an awesome 16/17 winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The CPC indices looks somewhat favorable for the next couple of weeks: PNA - Stays positive but drops towards neutral towards the end of the LR AO - Looks to stay/average negative NAO - Looks to head towards neutral and then average slightly positive - which is better than it has been. Reality -- We're most likely down to our last two weeks of hope. Yes we can get winter storms in mid March into April (especially in mountains), but the odds quickly go down after the 1st week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I agree. Please stop.Y'all take it to banter or even better, pm if you got a problem with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The PNA ridge looks to be a little more pronounced at 138 than the 6z run on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The CPC indices looks somewhat favorable for the next couple of weeks: PNA - Stays positive but drops towards neutral towards the end of the LR AO - Looks to stay/average negative NAO - Looks to head towards neutral and then average slightly positive - which is better than it has been. Reality -- We're most likely down to our last two weeks of hope. Yes we can get winter storms in mid March into April (especially in mountains), but the odds quickly go down after the 1st week of March. Yeah the first week of March is our last go around then we can focus on other things. This 2/3 or so storm will be all about timing IF the PV swings down and has a decent HP flanking it to the left (thus IF it's cold enough). IF the western ridge works out. IF the s/w even shows up on future model runs and can dig and not cut. Lots of IFs. I'll continue to follow just because of the clear model variability at 500mb but the odds have been against us like all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This has been a really crappy Nino. We've had virtually no systems crashing into southern CA and making their way through the southern tier. Everything's been entering the Pac NW, then heading SSE before heading NNW. Thanks very much to the Aleutian low for staying so far north this winter. Really appreciate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Horrible GFS run. Western ridge is pathetic compared to 06z . Even Chicago and Detroit rain next Thursday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This has been a really crappy Nino. We've had virtually no systems crashing into southern CA and making their way through the southern tier. Everything's been entering the Pac NW, then heading SSE before heading NNW. Thanks very much to the Aleutian low for staying so far north this winter. Really appreciate that. All the rain we have had makes it even worse. If we weren't going to get snow, then I'd rather have warm and sunny weather. It's been in the middle all winter, making it miserable. Have to give this winter a D grade here. It would have been an F if not for the one event in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 All the rain we have had makes it even worse. If we weren't going to get snow, then I'd rather have warm and sunny weather. It's been in the middle all winter, making it miserable. Have to give this winter a D grade here. It would have been an F if not for the one event in late January. All the rain gives our lakes and streams a chance to replenish. I'm glad we're not entering the spring with ongoing drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 All the rain gives our lakes and streams a chance to replenish. I'm glad we're not entering the spring with ongoing drought conditions. Everyone talks about the drought, but we usually end up getting enough rain to cover for it. I think it's blown out of proportion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This winter will be remembered for the rain and severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Horrible GFS run. Western ridge is pathetic compared to 06z . Even Chicago and Detroit rain next Thursday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk its ever so slightly different from 6z...subtle but important changes. this winter needs to be killed and buried like roadkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 its ever so slightly different from 6z...subtle but important changes. this winter needs to be killed and buried like roadkill. 06z GFS next Thursday 12z same time Massive change Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z GFS next Thursday 12z same time Massive change Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk was being sarcastic...useless at this range anyway but interesting nonetheless...If I had to pick one that might be closer to right gun to my head it would be 12z based on what we have been seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This winter will be remembered for the rain and severe weather. I've still got standing water in low places from Dec's 18 inches, and Jan and Feb have just exacerbated the situation. I'll be having to add some motor oil in a couple of weeks, to kill off the mosquito larvae. The water table under me is so high it has no where to go. My croquet court has been under water since early Dec. Still, it beats the drought I've endured since the century turned over. The big disappointment this winter has been the cold and all this rain haven't hooked up. Big, big possibilities shot, but that's life in the south. It's been like this all my life, and unless the next ice age kicks in, things won't change. Freezing precip, of any import, in Ga is still a big anomaly most winters, and the best set up will usually not produce T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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