Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z euro with a much better 500 mb setup next week . Close to a coastal bomb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z euro with a much better 500 mb setup next week . Close to a coastal bomb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk just need a slight correction west...but it looks cold for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Not really looking at 1/28 I'm looking in March, also looking at ensembles. Not sure I prefer any solution at this time to be honest. I'm fine if it doesn't happen and since the models backed off I'm less optimistic, however tons of time left and as I've mentioned models are literally all over the place. Compare 500mb vorticity on March 1st-3rd on the big 3 models. You can't tell me there's agreement. Agree'd about the first of March, but the over-running threat thought by some to have potential is now being shown as a lakes cutter by all the global models. We are now left hoping for that storm to pave the way for a trailing wave to possibly produce, thus kicking the can down the road to the 8 to 10 day time frame, and we all know how that generally works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Fine with me. We had a good winter up here, with a big storm and some smaller isolated NW events. Now I can finally look forward to longer days and Southport visits lol The fishing is great around May-October and the beaches are beautiful in the area. Winter time is usually a calm time. Building new roads all around Southport for better access around the area. Enjoy the warm up models agree with me apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z euro with a much better 500 mb setup next week . Close to a coastal bomb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep. When you have this much variability inside 10 days, I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss cold or a possible storm. When the euro is flopping around not only with the PV but also with the strength and location of the PNA, along with the location of the pacific trough (hell, basically flipping on everything), it's hard to just take an OP run verbatim and go "it's warm winter cancel!" I just don't understand the logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 that one has a much better chance of producing than the one next Monday. I could honestly see that one die out or just turn more into a cold front with the wave coming in behind it. Agree. Reading posts above I can tell what we are punting. Looks to be a window first week of March. Although I get it, I am ready for spring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z euro with a much better 500 mb setup next week . Close to a coastal bomb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The back and forth continues. Models still having big changes run to run, and so different from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Strong signal for a cutter on the eps day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Great eps run vs previous runs. Positive PNA , negative AO and NAO very active storm track in the days 7-13 period multiple systems. Some big dogs starting to show for the carolinas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Great eps run vs previous runs. Positive PNA , negative AO and NAO very active storm track in the days 7-13 period multiple systems. Some big dogs starting to show for the carolinas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I thought the -NAO was a mythical creature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Great eps run vs previous runs. Positive PNA , negative AO and NAO very active storm track in the days 7-13 period multiple systems. Some big dogs starting to show for the carolinas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk This ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Strong signal for a cutter on the eps day 10.Or this? Mixed signals much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yep. When you have this much variability inside 10 days, I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss cold or a possible storm. When the euro is flopping around not only with the PV but also with the strength and location of the PNA, along with the location of the pacific trough (hell, basically flipping on everything), it's hard to just take an OP run verbatim and go "it's warm winter cancel!" I just don't understand the logic. I can't speak for everybody, but my pessimism doesn't come from one OP run. The problem lies in the GFS/Euro ensembles. With all the varying solutions they spit out, basically none of them show a major winter storm for the south east, (haven't looked at the 12z Euro ensembles yet.) That tells me all I need to know about the 8 to 10 day "potential". Could it change? sure, but as of right now I don't see anything to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Or this? Mixed signals much? It's not just one system there are multiple systems very active Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 One this is for sure, we are going into a very active period with multiple storms, one of my major concerns is flooding.. Over 5 inches of rain/precip is very possible in places the next 2 weeks with this pattern.. Water levels are still very high, this spring could be very bad for mountain areas especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Great eps run vs previous runs. Positive PNA , negative AO and NAO very active storm track in the days 7-13 period multiple systems. Some big dogs starting to show for the carolinas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Huh? On weatherbell, I see 0 of 50 members giving any snow to South Carolina. And only 2 of 50 members giving some snow to the Northern Piedmont of NC over the next 10 days. Edit to add: Also, all 22 of the GFS members show no snowfall accumulating outside of the mountains over NC over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The overall long wave pattern looks really good on the ensembles. We will see if that translates to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Great eps run vs previous runs. Positive PNA , negative AO and NAO very active storm track in the days 7-13 period multiple systems. Some big dogs starting to show for the carolinas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well, as long as there are run-to-run inconsistencies, then I know that the final solution has not yet been presented. Let's just sit back and not get too carried way by the model mayhem. I have a feeling that we will see a much different look from the GFS in the coming days now that the Euro is moving toward a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z Parallel Euro shows a big Miller A storm at day 10 but of course it shows it going right over my house which gives the Eastern Piedmont a cold rain while the mountains get clobbered. I'm pretty sure it will either be gone on the next run or blazing a trail up the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I can't speak for everybody, but my pessimism doesn't come from one OP run. The problem lies in the GFS/Euro ensembles. With all the varying solutions they spit out, basically none of them show a major winter storm for the south east, (haven't looked at the 12z Euro ensembles yet.) That tells me all I need to know about the 8 to 10 day "potential". Could it change? sure, but as of right now I don't see anything to get excited about. 12z Euro para has a snowstorm Day 10. 18-24" for apps, 7-12" for the foothills, 3-6" Piedmont, Trace RDU. As I mentioned earlier it's a matter of time before the models drop a big one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The long range looks better yet worse at the same time. I don't know what to think really but I agree it's a powder keg of storms. The cold continues to be elusive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The overall long wave pattern looks really good on the ensembles. We will see if that translates to snow. 12z Euro para has a snowstorm Day 10. 18-24" for apps, 7-12" for the foothills, 3-6" Piedmont, Trace RDU. As I mentioned earlier it's a matter of time before the models drop a big one again. The 3 global ensembles all agree on the same general pattern days 8-13 which is better then anything we have had in Feb. Still don't like seeing the higher heights NE of Nova Scotia but the atlantic is still the atlantic. Argues for some sort of inland runner, kind of like the para is showing. Just need some luck for us east of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 There is absolutely nothing on any of the various operationals or any of the various ensemble suites that strongly indicate that a different pattern than we've seen this winter or the last several winters is going to set up. The general idea of a longwave trough in the east and a ridge in the west, along with a -AO and an active STJ looks is there. Unfortunately, they have yet to consistently lock in on a favorable -NAO configuration. This kind of pattern predominately produces cold shot, rain, cold shot, rain, and an occasional mixy event. Can we get a strong -NAO to develop at this late hour? So far, the answer is no, and the clock is ticking. The GEM Ensembles at 240 are below (the other ones looked like butt munch, comparatively). We have a fairly nice pattern at 500mb with nice +PNA/-EPO ridging, coupling with a -AO/-NAO configuration. The STJ is shown, so the pattern looks to be active. But the -NAO is not strong enough to force the PV south and east. The area inside the green oval needs to be stronger. If it's not, we'll continue to see Lakes lows, cutters, and mild snow. Perfect timing between a rapidly moving high pressure across the north and an inbound low pressure could yield something. But this is the kind of pattern we've seen many times over the last couple of years, which works best in the heart of winter. Working into March, it gets harder for this kind of pattern to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 There is absolutely nothing on any of the various operationals or any of the various ensemble suites that strongly indicate that a different pattern than we've seen this winter or the last several winters is going to set up. The general idea of a longwave trough in the east and a ridge in the west, along with a -AO and an active STJ looks is there. Unfortunately, they have yet to consistently lock in on a favorable -NAO configuration. This kind of pattern predominately produces cold shot, rain, cold shot, rain, and an occasional mixy event. Can we get a strong -NAO to develop at this late hour? So far, the answer is no, and the clock is ticking. The GEM Ensembles at 240 are below (the other ones looked like butt munch, comparatively). We have a fairly nice pattern at 500mb with nice +PNA/-EPO ridging, coupling with a -AO/-NAO configuration. The STJ is shown, so the pattern looks to be active. But the -NAO is not strong enough to force the PV south and east. The area inside the green oval needs to be stronger. If it's not, we'll continue to see Lakes lows, cutters, and mild snow. Perfect timing between a rapidly moving high pressure across the north and an inbound low pressure could yield something. But this is the kind of pattern we've seen many times over the last couple of years, which works best in the heart of winter. Working into March, it gets harder for this kind of pattern to produce. gem-ens_z500a_nhem_41. Yep, agree, I guess the teleconn's will register that as a -NAO but it's more east based and cutter/inland prone. We will need luck as I posted above and let's face it we don't have the greatest luck lately. Still, western areas can work with that. And of course I full expect the MA to NE to get another blizzard out of this, it isn't winter without hearing there bellyaching rewarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Huh? On weatherbell, I see 0 of 50 members giving any snow to South Carolina. And only 2 of 50 members giving some snow to the Northern Piedmont of NC over the next 10 days. Edit to add: Also, all 22 of the GFS members show no snowfall accumulating outside of the mountains over NC over the next 10 days. Lol who cares it's ten days out all that matters is the 500mb setup. And e45 crushes the carolinas in the 9-12 period Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 There is absolutely nothing on any of the various operationals or any of the various ensemble suites that strongly indicate that a different pattern than we've seen this winter or the last several winters is going to set up. The general idea of a longwave trough in the east and a ridge in the west, along with a -AO and an active STJ looks is there. Unfortunately, they have yet to consistently lock in on a favorable -NAO configuration. This kind of pattern predominately produces cold shot, rain, cold shot, rain, and an occasional mixy event. Can we get a strong -NAO to develop at this late hour? So far, the answer is no, and the clock is ticking. The GEM Ensembles at 240 are below (the other ones looked like butt munch, comparatively). We have a fairly nice pattern at 500mb with nice +PNA/-EPO ridging, coupling with a -AO/-NAO configuration. The STJ is shown, so the pattern looks to be active. But the -NAO is not strong enough to force the PV south and east. The area inside the green oval needs to be stronger. If it's not, we'll continue to see Lakes lows, cutters, and mild snow. Perfect timing between a rapidly moving high pressure across the north and an inbound low pressure could yield something. But this is the kind of pattern we've seen many times over the last couple of years, which works best in the heart of winter. Working into March, it gets harder for this kind of pattern to produce. gem-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png At this lead it means nothing but the eps builds a strong -NAO days 10-15 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro para has a bomb days 9/10 crushes western NC and parts of Tennessee with light amounts into northern miss, Alabama and Georgia Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yep. When you have this much variability inside 10 days, I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss cold or a possible storm. When the euro is flopping around not only with the PV but also with the strength and location of the PNA, along with the location of the pacific trough (hell, basically flipping on everything), it's hard to just take an OP run verbatim and go "it's warm winter cancel!" I just don't understand the logic. Jon, In 07 to 09 I was an avid reader of Henry Margusity (not sure spelled right) but I can remember when he would say thing like it has disappeared (storm) and a few days later he would have a headline, It's BACK(storm I'm thinking he was a model watcher like all of us. I'm guessing the models have always been had to follow. But some folks do it much better than others. And you seem to be developing that system for which leads me to look forward to your posts on here. Thanks for the hard work you and all the folks do in here. Make my job a lil easier in planing for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yep, agree, I guess the teleconn's will register that as a -NAO but it's more east based and cutter/inland prone. We will need luck as I posted above and let's face it we don't have the greatest luck lately. Still, western areas can work with that. And of course I full expect the MA to NE to get another blizzard out of this, it isn't winter without hearing there bellyaching rewarded. Yes, I think we're missing an actual bonafide -NAO. We've got higher heights over greenland, but we do not have lower heights over Maine/Nova Scotia/Northern Atlantic (for a 50/50 low) so we do not have a true -NAO that creates confluence and funnelling cold down the eastern seaboard. We've got higher heights in the N Atlantic instead. Because of that everything is cutting due to the positive heights pushing storms west. Plus we get lake low due to the PV location. That's how I understand it anyway...may be a bit off. We're getting blips here and there still for the first week in March but my expectations are very low. Cliff is looking real nice with this warmer weather poking in. Cherry trees are starting to blossom around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ^ that's why I like the day 9 setup u As modeled. The first wave goes North and helps to create confluence with the following wave coming right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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