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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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The Canadian looks like a nice hit to me. 2m temps appear to be the issue, but I am pretty certain they wouldn't be in that setup. Mid-level temps look fine for a nice hit for the foothills and northern Piedmont, as well as N GA.  Textbook track.

 

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The 00z UKMET has this:

 

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The Canadian has another score at D8.

 

EDIT: The 00z Euro is suppressed and OTS with the D5-6 coastal.

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I honestly just like tracking patterns at 500mb more than individual snowstorms nudging run to run. If the GFS is right this was one of the easier arctic hammers to predict. Just wow at that trough.

8cvZhEc.png

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As stated above the day 5/6 storm will be lacking a cold air source. Surface temps would struggle to get out of the 30s but would be above freezing for most. Dew points would have initially been in the 20s for most of the piedmont region before the precip arrives; which most likely would have web bulbs still above freezing. BUT, lets see if future run can provide a little more source for cold air.

 

 

post-940-0-77413100-1454418579_thumb.jpg

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   Watch out for that deformation band. Case studies have shown that the column will go isothermal in the NW quadrant due to the lack of horizontal advection. Then it's just a matter of elevation. Obviously the higher you go, the faster the change-over will occur. I feel sure that all non-mountain folks will start as rain and the snow level will fall as the deform band comes through. Whether the snow level makes it down to our elevation or not, remains to be seen. There is no way to know what the thermal structure of the storm will be this far out. Keep and eye on trends, and let's see if we can get some surface CAD to help us.

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All hail the cmc. We all need atleast one more good storm before season ends. Little nervous with a strong la nina forecasted to get underway that the dog days of summer are going to be worse than normal this year, if that's possible.. aka 2007

summer 2007 was a breeze compared to 2010 and 2011. At least 2007 was less humid.
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12z CMC has a Miller A still and gives WNC a good bit of snow and then ice for I-85 and north. Also has an extended period of NWFS that follows.

 

Unless there is a warm nose above 850, Temps aloft at 850/925mb and  surface temps suggest only a rain or snow situation

 

gem_asnow_seus_40.png

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Looks like a classic 32/SN isothermal situation to me for a lot of us. Similar to last February, I guess.

Yeah I was thinking last Feb was similar also.

Euro breaking out snow showers across Northern GA, central and upstate SC and WNC at hr 102.

Then supression city after 6 hrs of flurries.

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It would be nice if there were more than 20 miles between shortwaves this year.

The infamous northwest trend would be nice.  It's Dejavu though with the euro the furthest south with the low across south florida while the gfs and canadian are much further north. Interestingly the euro is a bit colder aloft than the gfs and canadian with the established airmass over the southeast ahead of whatever comes along.

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The infamous northwest trend would be nice.  It's Dejavu though with the euro the furthest south with the low across south florida while the gfs and canadian are much further north. Interestingly the euro is a bit colder aloft than the gfs and canadian with the established airmass over the southeast ahead of whatever comes along.

 

Yeah...I'm worried about the temps, though.  The air mass may well work, but it would be very, very close.  Too many northern stream waves.  If that trailing wave wasn't there, we'd have a much better chance of the high building in better.  I do think it trends north, though.

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