Jon Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Anyone notice the CFSv2 for 1/31? Lol. That's why the last run is so important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 ^ Enjoy your snow, Mexico. If we'd have had one more day, Jon, we'd have had something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Where's burger??? I was waiting on one of those epic PBP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 0z GFS really drops the cold hammer next week! 498s reach into NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Canadian does a coastal low, verbatim it's only snow in the mountains. But temps are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The Canadian looks like a nice hit to me. 2m temps appear to be the issue, but I am pretty certain they wouldn't be in that setup. Mid-level temps look fine for a nice hit for the foothills and northern Piedmont, as well as N GA. Textbook track. The 00z UKMET has this: The Canadian has another score at D8. EDIT: The 00z Euro is suppressed and OTS with the D5-6 coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I honestly just like tracking patterns at 500mb more than individual snowstorms nudging run to run. If the GFS is right this was one of the easier arctic hammers to predict. Just wow at that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 6z GFS looks very cold in the LR. No big fantasy snow storms but lots of potential small events. The day 5ish storm still doesn't have enough cold air outside the mountains but something to watch. After this storm it would have big pushes of cold air along with some possible small events for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 As stated above the day 5/6 storm will be lacking a cold air source. Surface temps would struggle to get out of the 30s but would be above freezing for most. Dew points would have initially been in the 20s for most of the piedmont region before the precip arrives; which most likely would have web bulbs still above freezing. BUT, lets see if future run can provide a little more source for cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Watch out for that deformation band. Case studies have shown that the column will go isothermal in the NW quadrant due to the lack of horizontal advection. Then it's just a matter of elevation. Obviously the higher you go, the faster the change-over will occur. I feel sure that all non-mountain folks will start as rain and the snow level will fall as the deform band comes through. Whether the snow level makes it down to our elevation or not, remains to be seen. There is no way to know what the thermal structure of the storm will be this far out. Keep and eye on trends, and let's see if we can get some surface CAD to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 gfs took another step in the right direction for the weekend storm, its so darn close for many look at that beast well its not going to let me post a picture, you'll just have to take my word for it 988mb sitting SE of ILM, 850s at the NC VA border, wouldn't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like the cold is just a bit late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Developes too late and heads out to sea. Gfs continues to trend farther offshore with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 12z CMC has a Miller A still and gives WNC a good bit of snow and then ice for I-85 and north. Also has an extended period of NWFS that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 All hail the cmc. We all need atleast one more good storm before season ends. Little nervous with a strong la nina forecasted to get underway that the dog days of summer are going to be worse than normal this year, if that's possible.. aka 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 All hail the cmc. We all need atleast one more good storm before season ends. Little nervous with a strong la nina forecasted to get underway that the dog days of summer are going to be worse than normal this year, if that's possible.. aka 2007 summer 2007 was a breeze compared to 2010 and 2011. At least 2007 was less humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 summer 2007 was a breeze compared to 2010 and 2011. At least 2007 was less humid.This is gonna be a summer like '93, according to Shetley! Imagine that, the pipe busting cold is not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 12z CMC has a Miller A still and gives WNC a good bit of snow and then ice for I-85 and north. Also has an extended period of NWFS that follows. Unless there is a warm nose above 850, Temps aloft at 850/925mb and surface temps suggest only a rain or snow situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Unless there is a warm nose above 850, Temps aloft at 850/925mb and surface temps suggest only a rain or snow situationYeah you are right. Not much of a warm nose, didn't check the 925mb. A good portion of the board would be ok with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah you are right. Not much of a warm nose, didn't check the 925mb. A good portion of the board would be ok with that solution. Looks like a classic 32/SN isothermal situation to me for a lot of us. Similar to last February, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like a classic 32/SN isothermal situation to me for a lot of us. Similar to last February, I guess.Yeah I was thinking last Feb was similar also. Euro breaking out snow showers across Northern GA, central and upstate SC and WNC at hr 102. Then supression city after 6 hrs of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah I was thinking last Feb was similar also. Euro breaking out snow showers across Northern GA, central and upstate SC and WNC at hr 102. Then supression city after 6 hrs of flurries. It would be nice if there were more than 20 miles between shortwaves this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro breaking out snow showers across Northern GA, central and upstate SC and WNC at hr 102. Then supression city after 6 hrs of flurries. The LP tracking over Ft. Myers isn't a good track for us? Nice storm, though. Decent cold. Just wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The LP tracking over Ft. Myers isn't a good track for us? Nice storm, though. Decent cold. Just wide right. Right where we want it! Get the cold first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The LP tracking over Ft. Myers isn't a good track for us? Nice storm, though. Decent cold. Just wide right. Euro had the last storm in Cuba at this time, so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 C Fl is usually a good track 4-5 days out this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It would be nice if there were more than 20 miles between shortwaves this year. The infamous northwest trend would be nice. It's Dejavu though with the euro the furthest south with the low across south florida while the gfs and canadian are much further north. Interestingly the euro is a bit colder aloft than the gfs and canadian with the established airmass over the southeast ahead of whatever comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Neat look going into early next week after the coastal storm on Euro. Western ridge with trough digging in the east...a late Feb '89 type look if it were to really dig and close off...potential for some flakes to fly in the air deep into the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The infamous northwest trend would be nice. It's Dejavu though with the euro the furthest south with the low across south florida while the gfs and canadian are much further north. Interestingly the euro is a bit colder aloft than the gfs and canadian with the established airmass over the southeast ahead of whatever comes along. Yeah...I'm worried about the temps, though. The air mass may well work, but it would be very, very close. Too many northern stream waves. If that trailing wave wasn't there, we'd have a much better chance of the high building in better. I do think it trends north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 C Fl is usually a good track 4-5 days out this time of year. Yep this is right where we want the Euro to be at this time frame. It will be interesting to see if the EPS supports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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