TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hate to say it but seeing the latest model runs it looks like winter is officially over. Models are trending warmer and looking like I will finally be able to pull out my fishing poles and start looking over my tackle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Well the good news is the cmc ensemble looks better on the 27-29th as far as that goes. Maybe the models are just overdoing the location in response to the lack of the PNA, it has to compensate for the large block somehow and that's the answer. We need both a good ridge position and the PV to move southeast over the NE, it can't be as far north as the EPS shows day 7. At this range it's still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hate to say it but seeing the latest model runs it looks like winter is officially over. Models are trending warmer and looking like I will finally be able to pull out my fishing poles and start looking over my tackle. Fine with me. We had a good winter up here, with a big storm and some smaller isolated NW events. Now I can finally look forward to longer days and Southport visits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 For as pessimistic as I was about this winter back in early January, I didn't think that Feb would look like this. Next few days are solidly above normal in the east which should wipe out the weak below normal temps in the southeast. And pic below that is the past 60 days, heart of winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ATL is running above normal for Feb, and will finish winter at least +4 for temps. Next winter can't possibly be any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ATL is running above normal for Feb, and will finish winter at least +4 for temps. Next winter can't possibly be any worse.yes it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Last week there was talk of getting a -NAO next week. Guess that isn't going to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ATL is running above normal for Feb, and will finish winter at least +4 for temps. Next winter can't possibly be any worse. yes it could. This is a warmer version of 98 and look what happened with the nina that followed 98, . Expectations will be more realistic from most next winter, as long as people don't believe JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 98 was much worse than this winter. The one thing that hurt us this year was lack of a -nap. Who knows, maybe next year we get a sustained one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 98 was much worse than this winter. The one thing that hurt us this year was lack of a -nap. Who knows, maybe next year we get a sustained one. I disagree, 98 had an event 2-4" of snow across central NC, this year we got 1" of sleet. Like I said back in early January before my break I would happily take another 98 repeat. The past few months the NW atlantic ridge has been a killer, the hostile atlantic finally took it's toll, we can only fight +NAO for so long. Future winters we need the atlantic to flip. I can't imagine how warm next winter could potentially be with a SE ridge and NE atlantic ridge, a 99 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 98 was much worse than this winter. The one thing that hurt us this year was lack of a -nap. Who knows, maybe next year we get a sustained one. much worse for you maybe. I had about 2" of snow in 98 and there was another big snow in southern and central MS and AL. This year if you weren't in the mountains or along and north of I-40 you were screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Since this year was a warmer version of 98, are you saying next December ATL could be +15 to +20 ? ATL was +12 this Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 much worse for you maybe. I had about 2" of snow in 98 and there was another big snow in southern and central MS and AL. This year if you weren't in the mountains or along and north of I-40 you were screwed. Agree, just look at the patterns, we really never got the plains to se trough going this winter, 98 was a crap pattern but this was worse, much worse. A large area got hit with that Jan blizzard so we won't be able to convince those people otherwise because all we really care about is snow, me included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Since this year was a warmer version of 98, are you saying next December ATL could be +15 to +20 ? ATL was +12 this Dec. I sure wouldn't bet on cold with a nina and this terrible atlantic we have. Lot can change in the next 9-10 months though. I do think the atlantic flips down the road, whether it's next winter or in 5 years, but hopefully things get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Even with this winter being crappy, I still managed to get more snow than last winter. And last winter was much colder here. Of course I had no snow last winter so it wasn't hard to beat last winter. We are in a really awful stretch of winters around here going back to 2011-12 with the only exception being 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z has our storm but the PV isn't working out. The pacific looks out of whack, the GFS clearly is just shooting from the hip right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z has our storm but the PV isn't working out. The pacific looks out of whack, the GFS clearly is just shooting from the hip right now. Just glanced it and the CMC, getting old seeing cutters. Ensembles FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I disagree, 98 had an event 2-4" of snow across central NC, this year we got 1" of sleet. Like I said back in early January before my break I would happily take another 98 repeat. The past few months the NW atlantic ridge has been a killer, the hostile atlantic finally took it's toll, we can only fight +NAO for so long. Future winters we need the atlantic to flip. I can't imagine how warm next winter could potentially be with a SE ridge and NE atlantic ridge, a 99 repeat. We had an active severe season in 98 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Just glanced it and the CMC, getting old seeing cutters. Ensembles FTW? It's not a cutter, it tracks across Raleigh at 996mb. Adjust the cold ever so slightly and we are in business. I still anticipate a snowy run again with the amount of uncertainty involved, only a matter of which run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 We had an active severe season in 98 as well. if I remember correctly there was a major severe weather episode in April 98 that killed many people in AL and GA. We are due for another active spring. Its been pretty quiet since 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's not a cutter, it tracks across Raleigh at 996mb. Adjust the cold ever so slightly and we are in business. I still anticipate a snowy run again with the amount of uncertainty involved, only a matter of which run. I quit looking when I saw it track from southern Tx to northern AL. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I quit looking when I saw it track from southern Tx to northern AL. ;-)are you talking the day 7 event or the day 9-10?I posted yesterday about not being a big fan of the pv over Hudson bay. Usually it ends up being too far north for us and this looks to be the case. Give me a ridge over Hudson bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 are you talking the day 7 event or the day 9-10? I posted yesterday about not being a big fan of the pv over Hudson bay. Usually it ends up being too far north for us and this looks to be the case. Give me a ridge over Hudson bay. Day 9. Agree on PV over HB, we need it further east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Day 9. Agree on PV over HB, we need it further east and south.that one has a much better chance of producing than the one next Monday. I could honestly see that one die out or just turn more into a cold front with the wave coming in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's not a cutter, it tracks across Raleigh at 996mb. Adjust the cold ever so slightly and we are in business. I still anticipate a snowy run again with the amount of uncertainty involved, only a matter of which run. I dunno Jon; I think the fat lady is clearing her voice for this one already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I dunno Jon; I think the fat lady is clearing her voice for this one already. 12Z Euro has this LP cruising through the Lakes at day 7. The 12Z UK has it in almost the same exact position as the 12Z Euro at Hr. 144. Maybe it will show something later with the big push of cold air it brings through. *Edit* Pops a Coastal on Day 9 but it's too far out to sea; no precip inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z Euro has this LP cruising through the Lakes at day 7. The 12Z UK has it in almost the same exact position as the 12Z Euro at Hr. 144. Don't look at the op runs, the 500 MB pattern screams cold and snow! It couldn't be wrong?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I dunno Jon; I think the fat lady is clearing her voice for this one already.Looks mighty cold in SE Canada , but that will do us little good! When the severe pages are longer than the winter pattern thread, you know seasons are a changing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I dunno Jon; I think the fat lady is clearing her voice for this one already.Not really looking at 1/28 I'm looking in March, also looking at ensembles. Not sure I prefer any solution at this time to be honest. I'm fine if it doesn't happen and since the models backed off I'm less optimistic, however tons of time left and as I've mentioned models are literally all over the place. Compare 500mb vorticity on March 1st-3rd on the big 3 models. You can't tell me there's agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Not really looking at 1/28 I'm looking in March, also looking at ensembles. Not sure I prefer any solution at this time to be honest. I'm fine if it doesn't happen and since the models backed off I'm less optimistic, however tons of time left and as I've mentioned models are literally all over the place. Compare 500mb vorticity on March 1st-3rd on the big 3 models. You can't tell me there's agreement.I'll really be glad when 10+ days out , starts getting into April, so we will be out of this misery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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