Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 often heard you never pay attention to the 18z Think of when you usually hear that.... When it takes the snow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 06z and 18z GFS are every bit as good as the 00z and 12z runs... The verification scores are basically identical. DTK has a lot of writeups on here about that subject. Why does this myth continue to get pushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 18z DGEX is onboard! Fire up the busses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 06z and 18z GFS are every bit as good as the 00z and 12z runs... The verification scores are basically identical. DTK has a lot of writeups on here about that subject. Why does this myth continue to get pushed? Extreme confirmation bias. Does the 18z/06z not show what you want? Oh well, it's always wrong anyways. Out the window it goes! It's terrible, but regardless, looking at the specifics of individual model runs and such this far out like some on this forum will only lead them to constantly run in circles. For now, I'm just glad there's a good storm signal with great indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Extreme confirmation bias. Does the 18z/06z not show what you want? Oh well, it's always wrong anyways. Out the window it goes! It's terrible, but regardless, looking at the specifics of individual model runs and such this far out like some on this forum will only lead them to constantly run in circles. For now, I'm just glad there's a good storm signal with great indices. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I don't understand all the pessimism, it's better to go through life optimistic ! All big 3 models hint at something around this time frame! I'm with you on the upbeat note. No need to do the gloom and doom thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Robert says he never looks at or uses the 18z or 6z GFS , unless it's within 3 days or less from the event. I have to agree with Robert on this one, and Robert is as good as they get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 06z and 18z GFS are every bit as good as the 00z and 12z runs... The verification scores are basically identical. DTK has a lot of writeups on here about that subject. Why does this myth continue to get pushed? To control paid membership subscriptions. There is some cold before the March 1st time frame window so there is some merit I would watch early March for NC. Teens in the mountains. Plus +33 near term to -10 on the 0z GFS in New Hampshire so maybe some oozing back door wedge dry cold air can be tapped in candy (CAD) land. I'm going to be monitoring the cold over the next 7 days and I'm sure we will have a storm to balance the season transitioning...I wouldn't worry about suppression in March we haven't all winter it's mostly been mixing problems for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Instead of snow, the 0z GFS gives us a nice warm rain. Canadian is even warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That's it! Even with the best looking set up in YEARS we can't score. Unless the models radically change again and runs with it or something else pops up after, I'm considering this winter done. Congratulations to the mountain communities, the Virginias and D.C for your awesome winter. I'll be looking forward to the spring/summer with the severe season and the return of hurricane season.Wait, you're serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That's it! Even with the best looking set up in YEARS we can't score. Unless the models radically change again and runs with it or something else pops up after, I'm considering this winter done. Congratulations to the mountain communities, the Virginias and D.C for your awesome winter. I'll be looking forward to the spring/summer with the severe season and the return of hurricane season. Edit: Before you reference my post about the para and ensembles being given more weight, I doubt that ether of them will so different that it showcases temperatures that are 30-40 degrees colder. Let's just watch this pattern unfold....... too early to get emotional one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I do think the severe threat is a bigger deal than a 240 hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Instead of snow, the 0z GFS gives us a nice warm rain. Canadian is even warmer. what happened to all the cold that was showing yesterday, it can still come back as easy as it went away, models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If I'm not mistaken, the 00z and 12Z runs are the ones that receive new sampling data...while the 6z and 18z do not. That's the reason why I too don't focus as heavily on the off-cycle runs; not to say they can't be beneficial and used as yet another ensemble member in the art of forecasting analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If I'm not mistaken, the 00z and 12Z runs are the ones that receive new sampling data...while the 6z and 18z do not. That's the reason why I too don't focus as heavily on the off-cycle runs; not to say they can't be beneficial and used as yet another ensemble member in the art of forecasting analysis.My post was deleted for some reason (maybe I have a green tagger who isn't a fan?) but here's some explanation:http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/ The only times where new data would make a huge difference is in-situ, or when there's a critical shortwave that comes ashore that is sampled and included in the 00z run. Then you'll see a big jump from 18z to 00z (if the sampling was critical to the output of the modeled solution - it isn't always) this will likely make you say the "18z can't be trusted", etc. All runs have similar verification scores. In the post that was deleted, I said the GFS is run 4x/day where it has 2x as many chances to be wrong as the Euro does. So the Euro only has to be right half the time, that may lead to bias towards the off hour runs that aren't ran in conjunction with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Instead of snow, the 0z GFS gives us a nice warm rain. Canadian is even warmer. Remember when I said grasping at straws and that it would trend to a warm rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Well atleast we had the best pattern all winter on the models for a day!! Sad , sad winter continues! Remember about 7 days ago, today -Wed event had a snowy run or two?? When it shows the warm rain solution, it'll lock in and not budge ! But the pattern looks loaded through day 15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Remember when I said grasping at straws and that it would trend to a warm rain? Take a look at that time period on 500mb vorticity or height anomalies and compare the last few runs. The GFS has no idea what to do with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Take a look at that time period on 500mb vorticity or height anomalies and compare the last few runs. The GFS has no idea what to do with this pattern. Anyone have a summary of what the Euro had overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Remember when I said grasping at straws and that it would trend to a warm rain? If you already make your mind up about what is going to happen, then what is the point of even coming here and following what's happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm with you on the upbeat note. No need to do the gloom and doom thing... I don't think you realize he is just being sarcastic and trolling with these type of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Take a look at that time period on 500mb vorticity or height anomalies and compare the last few runs. The GFS has no idea what to do with this pattern.All the models were rain last night! They all can't be having the same blip!? How bout the ensembles! That's what's really telling! Remember today! Went from off the coast to apps runner in one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Anyone have a summary of what the Euro had overnight? I didn't see anyone in my forum talking about it so assume its not that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 All the models were rain last night! They all can't be having the same blip!? How bout the ensembles! That's what's really telling! Remember today! Went from off the coast to apps runner in one run??? I said 500mb not low pressure maps. Can't tell if you're trolling or serious Mack. We'll see a non-rain solution for this time period again, mark my words (actually don't, I don't want to jinx it). The 500mb pattern is simply to erratic not to see one, it translates poorly to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I didn't see anyone in my forum talking about it so assume its not that good.Models having trouble with the ridge out west. GFS has been better in the long range with the PNA for February so I tend to lean with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 With the Euro being way warm last night, the only model hinting at anything wintry is the DGEX. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ?? I said 500mb not low pressure maps. Can't tell if you're trolling or serious Mack. We'll see a non-rain solution for this time period again, mark my words (actually don't, I don't want to jinx it). The 500mb pattern is simply to erratic not to see one, it translates poorly to the surface.No trolling, just talking op runs last night! I know we aren't supposed to do that, but we all do. And the warmer runs were disheartening last night! I guess they could flip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Models having trouble with the ridge out west. GFS has been better in the long range with the PNA for February so I tend to lean with that Funny thing is most a lot of folks only look at the surface on op runs instead of looking at 500mb. If you look at the ensembles nothing supports warmth around the 1st. It's crazy looking at H5 and then seeing warm surface reflections . They don't match , in fact they are complete opposite. I expect a colder look on the models soon Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Models having trouble with the ridge out west. GFS has been better in the long range with the PNA for February so I tend to lean with that Agree, models have been having trouble all winter with that. That was one reason things trended better for us for the January event. This is not good on the EPS, we don't want low heights that far east in GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Agree, models have been having trouble all winter with that. That was one reason things trended better for us for the January event. This is not good on the EPS, we don't want low heights that far east in GOA. Well the good news is the cmc ensemble looks better on the 27-29th as far as that goes. Maybe the models are just overdoing the location in response to the lack of the PNA, it has to compensate for the large block somehow and that's the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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