Stormcatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Grasping at straws. Too far out right now. Will trend to rain like always. Would love to hear your sound reasoning as to why this " will trend to rain like always" This is probably the best setup we've had this season . MJO headed to phase 8, positive PNA , -AO , -NAO active southern jet . It's hardly " grasping at straws" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Grasping at straws. Too far out right now. Will trend to rain like always. Guess we won't see you on the thread anymore then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Grasping at straws. Too far out right now. Will trend to rain like always. No, this is not grasping at straws...... There is however, a lot of time left before verification. Now, it would really surprise me if this were to trend north and leave us holding the bag....... I am basing my reasoning off the indices. They look really good for the time-frame in question, and even if there was no storm being currently modeled, I would still like our chances. My concern is more about suppression than the "north-trend" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 No, this is not grasping at straws...... There is however, a lot of time left before verification. Now, it would really surprise me if this were to trend north and leave us holding the bag....... I am basing my reasoning off the indices. They look really good for the time-frame in question, and even if there was no storm being currently modeled, I would still like our chances. My concern is more about suppression than the "north-trend" at this point. Suppression is the last thing I'm ever concerned about 7 days out. That said (with franklin's above comments noted), I agree with you that things may be different this time, given the higher likelihood of late winter -NAO probabilities in Nino years and given the strong blocking showing on models. Plus, it looks like there will be some really cold air nearby, which hasn't always been the case this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 How does the 12z euro para look? Ryan tweeted that it was running early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Would love to hear your sound reasoning as to why this " will trend to rain like always" This is probably the best setup we've had this season . MJO headed to phase 8, positive PNA , -AO , -NAO active southern jet . It's hardly " grasping at straws" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, the overall pattern looks great but once again like always it's over one week away. If a system is there that shows great possibility within five days then it is time to start honking the horn. Until then it's just smoke and mirrors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 How does the 12z euro para look? Ryan tweeted that it was running early today. Terrible. Way north of the op Euro. No snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Terrible. Way north of the op Euro. No snow south of the Mason Dixon Line.Party over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Terrible. Way north of the op Euro. No snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. Thanks. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 suppression and cold would be a god-send down here but hey - who am i to wish for mby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 suppression and cold would be a god-send down here but hey - who am i to wish for mby? Those mean, mean Carolina folks only want what looks good for them, lol. You and I have to fight tooth and claw for every pellet, and flake But it's coming, the moles have spoken...sleetapaloosa is nearly upon us! Already the low is trying to move out of Ga, and the cold is trying to come down. Wheels are turning, pieces clicking into place, winter is far from over....what's not to like? This could be the year of fabled frozen March.....comes in like a lion and goes out like a bewildered beast T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS looks great and the Euro took a big jump last run. Indicies look good, and strong signals for a storm near the first of March. Looks like a lot of potential. Hope the GFS holds serve and the Euro trends to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS looks great and the Euro took a big jump last run. Indicies look good, and strong signals for a storm near the first of March. Looks like a lot of potential. Hope the GFS holds serve and the Euro trends to it. Yep, pretty much what the last page of posts just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 EPS support??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 EPS support??? The eps supports the general setup at 500mb and has a sick block. That's all we can ask for at this point Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yep, pretty much what the last page of posts just said.Great analysis! Just hope the vortex is as far south as being modeled and actual -NAO materializes! Wish we could have had this potential set up , about 4 weeks ago! I'm concerned about cold being there! If we get zilch, because of supression, I'll call it a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z GFS para supports the same idea in the 7-9 day period Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 By the way - 12z Euro caved to GFS at 500mb. Sends PV south of Hudson. That block is serious. If the GFS/EURO are even remotely correct at 500mb, the SE will be looking at its best chance of a widespread hit in several years. There hasn't been that kind of blocking in a long time during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Ooooops ! Then the GFS 18z, takes a step or two back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Ooooops ! Then the GFS 18z, takes a step or two back! Not really , the 500 mb pattern is the same. Western ridge was too weak this run but the general setup is the same Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Suppression is the last thing I'm ever concerned about 7 days out. That said (with franklin's above comments noted), I agree with you that things may be different this time, given the higher likelihood of late winter -NAO probabilities in Nino years and given the strong blocking showing on models. Plus, it looks like there will be some really cold air nearby, which hasn't always been the case this winter. I see suppression on the GFS 18z run..... nothing is a guarantee at this point. That was the potential issue I saw with the earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yep, pretty much what the last page of posts just said. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Ooooops ! Then the GFS 18z, takes a step or two back! Oh well, it was nice while it lasted! Threat over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Oh well, it was nice while it lasted! Threat over! No Brick.... it's not over...lol. This is still too far out in time for the models to nail down a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I see suppression on the GFS 18z run..... nothing is a guarantee at this point. That was the potential issue I saw with the earlier runs.Robert says he never looks at or uses the 18z or 6z GFS , unless it's within 3 days or less from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yesterday the models were in the toilet and had been for a few days. I watched JB (the PA one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Robert says he never looks at or uses the 18z or 6z GFS , unless it's within 3 days or less from the event. Smart man. Read my signature from isohume for verification of this. Anybody who looks at weather models more than a few days out is probably gonna be disappointed due to the big changes of them from run to run. It will go from a blizzard to 70 and sunny in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Oh well, it was nice while it lasted! Threat over! Is this based on any objective analysis of observable data or rather on a vision, a gut feeling, a coin flip, a hot tip, a wild guess, a fortune cookie, grandpa's old cough medicine, woman's intuition, or your cousin Tiny Tim Tamland's bad hip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Smart man. Read my signature from isohume for verification of this. Anybody who looks at weather models more than a few days out is probably gonna be disappointed due to the big changes of them from run to run. It will go from a blizzard to 70 and sunny in 12 hours.He specifically said 18z and 6z GFS ! I know we always discuss the off hour runs and say throw them out, but everybody says they are all the same, there must be a reason he doesn't use the off hour ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 He specifically said 18z and 6z GFS ! I know we always discuss the off hour runs and say throw them out, but everybody says they are all the same, there must be a reason he doesn't use the off hour ones? often heard you never pay attention to the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.