Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Becoming slightly interested in days 7-10, that GEFS graphic Jon posted above does not look bad by any stretch and matches up with the op Euro for the period. The Euro does have a pos tilt shortwave in the middle MS River Valley day 7, something to watch as it should be cold enough. After that, there is some support on the GFS individual mems for a more widespread p-type event between day 8 and 10.Good to see you're slightly interested, felt all alone on here haha. If we have a signal for a March system we can't get much better at day 10 than where we're sitting now. Taking it verbatim is a mistake, but we could be looking much worse. Interested in the next two Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Good to see you're slightly interested, felt all alone on here haha. If we have a signal for a March system we can't get much better at day 10 than where we're sitting now. Taking it verbatim is a mistake, but we could be looking much worse. Interested in the next two Euro runs. It is really day 8 at this point and one could argue based on H5 the stage it set at day 7. Hopefully the GFS is not on an island here and we see the Canadian, and preferably the Euro paint a similar 500mb picture at day 7. The GFS verbatum is a long duration event, overrunning followed by amplification and Gulf low, about perfect for a widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It is really day 8 at this point and one could argue based on H5 the stage it set at day 7. Hopefully the GFS is not on an island here and we see the Canadian, and preferably the Euro paint a similar 500mb picture at day 7. The GFS verbatum is a long duration event, overrunning followed by amplification and Gulf low, about perfect for a widespread event.Canadian was pretty close to a wintry event in this timeframe last night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z GEFS supports the general idea of the 12z op Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Wasn't there two GFS op runs in a row that showed a mega bomb storm about this time, the one with 4" of sleet for CAE? Then dropped it the 3rd run!? A few days back? Maybe it's back? Yeah, it never really left, I've been watching, lol. It just sort of went apps runner, and then went south a bit with the low still way up in Ga. Now it's trending back south with the low and the cold. Looks great to me this far out. Hopefully sleetapoloosa will return about 2 days out, for joyful dancing, and sledding nekked, before the retched descent into spring T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Skeptical of anything wintry showing on the models, especially heading into March. Weren't we supposed to have a big winter storm this week according to the models last week? That lasted about a day. Guess we'll just have to keep watch and see if it keeps showing up on the models, but I doubt it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Skeptical of anything wintry showing on the models, especially heading into March. Weren't we supposed to have a big winter storm this week according to the models last week? That lasted about a day. Guess we'll just have to keep watch and see if it keeps showing up on the models, but I doubt it will.I don't understand all the pessimism, it's better to go through life optimistic ! All big 3 models hint at something around this time frame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I don't see much GEFS ensemble support for the Triangle. Members look scattered, and the mean has an odd look overall actually 'course it is 10 days out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Skeptical of anything wintry showing on the models, especially heading into March. Weren't we supposed to have a big winter storm this week according to the models last week? That lasted about a day. Guess we'll just have to keep watch and see if it keeps showing up on the models, but I doubt it will. At least with this potential period there is some very cold air to tap into. We jut need the vortex to push far enough south to get on the cold side of any over-running precip. Euro & Ukmet don't really get the job done in that aspect. Hopefully the GFS is on to something with dropping it so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I don't see much GEFS ensemble support for the Triangle. Members look scattered, and the mean has an odd look overall actually 'course it is 10 days out too. Some members track over us and jack TN to NoVA. Some track well south and have as GA/SC event. Pattern favors some form of overrunning, whether it tracks down i20 or i40 we will see. Do we feel lucky is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It just looks like the same song and dance to me. Could push looks good 7-10 days out and then moderates. Why would this be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It just looks like the same song and dance to me. Could push looks good 7-10 days out and then moderates. Why would this be any different?Yes! I agree ! Patterns repeat, even the crappy ones! And model cold shots have absolutely been off all winter , as you stated above! Why would March be any different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Until at least one of the global models show something similar to the GFS/GEFS then I'm writing it off as the GFS being drunk. Well, so far the 1032mb HP plunging into the midwest on the 12z Euro is a bit different than the 00z Euro 1020mb high in canada on 2/28. You may get your wish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yes! I agree ! Patterns repeat, even the crappy ones! And model cold shots have absolutely been off all winter , as you stated above! Why would March be any different honestly the potential looks great as depicted and is a fairly simple set up with few moving parts. But when all is said and done the raging niño and STJ will win out as it has all winter. I know a lot of years we can win without a -NAO with other teleconnections on our side but if ever there was a year to need it, this is the one. The cold push just can't make it here and stay this year. Maybe this is the pattern breaker and we score but I'm not very excited about it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro has the March 1st system but may be a bit north if I would guess, some overrunning in Kentucky. Much colder and moisture popping over texas @ hr 210. HUGE jump regardless for the Euro in one run, leaning towards GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well, so far the 1032mb HP plunging into the midwest on the 12z Euro is a bit different than the 00z Euro 1020mb high in canada on 2/28. You may get your wish...Pretty meager high to get the cold we will need, IMO ! MA, will be golden, I'm sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Pretty meager high to get the cold we will need, IMO ! MA, will be golden, I'm sure! Won't be that far north! Looks like WV/DC/VA will jackpot. We'll see it's still rolling... Can't deny the huge change from 00z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Good to see the change on the Euro. Just have to wait and see if the Euro and GFS get on the same page and keep the threat alive. If we have model war going, it seems the one with the least wintry outcome has been the right one this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Won't be that far north! Looks like WV/DC/VA will jackpot. We'll see it's still rolling... Can't deny the huge change from 00z, though.Yeah, I meant MA= Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 By the way - 12z Euro caved to GFS at 500mb. Sends PV south of Hudson. That block is serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ^ That look, if true, would evict our friend, the Lakes low, for a while. It would also promote high pressure building into the Plains/Midwest. That's actually capable of turning into a really nice setup. You've got a -AO/-NAO/+PNA with an active STJ and lower heights across parts of the Gulf and off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 By the way - 12z Euro caved to GFS at 500mb. Sends PV south of Hudson. That block is serious. Agree Jon, Big time block. If true? it's fun and games for a while!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 By the way - 12z Euro caved to GFS at 500mb. Sends PV south of Hudson. That block is serious. Holy crap! That was a cave! The 500 MB patterns almost look identical! If we can get that look to verify and the STJ wakes up, it will be memorable ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Right on cue from allan Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/701476821880049664?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ^ That look, if true, would evict our friend, the Lakes low, for a while. It would also promote high pressure building into the Plains/Midwest. That's actually capable of turning into a really nice setup. You've got a -AO/-NAO/+PNA with an active STJ and lower heights across parts of the Gulf and off the SE coast. We are almost to the Euro's sweet spot (5 days). Give me identical runs on the big two 00z and 12z tomorrow and we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It just looks like the same song and dance to me. Could push looks good 7-10 days out and then moderates. Why would this be any different? It's a different setup . We have s NAO block this go around that helps force the PV south Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's a different setup . We have s NAO block this go around that helps force the PV south Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep, this one is quite different. We have support from the indices on this one. The block is modeled to be strong. No cutter... if anything, we should be worried about suppression in the coming runs. If we have that type of cold and the PV moves too far south, all we will have left is cold and dry... Brick's favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ^ That look, if true, would evict our friend, the Lakes low, for a while. It would also promote high pressure building into the Plains/Midwest. That's actually capable of turning into a really nice setup. You've got a -AO/-NAO/+PNA with an active STJ and lower heights across parts of the Gulf and off the SE coast. usually it verifys farther North. We will need it that far south or farther to get this to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 MJO is currently in phase 7 with a mod amplitude push forecast, should be entering phase 8 around day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Grasping at straws. Too far out right now. Will trend to rain like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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