GlaringSun Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Pretty disconcerting that TWC is forecasting 60's all week starting on the 28th. Hope they're just gambling for the warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Pretty disconcerting that TWC is forecasting 60's all week starting on the 28th. Hope they're just gambling for the warm solution. I hope that you don't find TWC's automated forecast disconcerting. If you're trying to sniff out a long range weather threat, TWC is absolutely the last place to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 00z GGEM is a hit for NC/TN at D9-10. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 00z GGEM is a hit for NC/TN at D9-10. Interesting.Cool, a leap year miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 00z GGEM is a hit for NC/TN at D9-10. Interesting. Since we don't have much to discuss, let me tear it apart. Surface temps above freezing and 850s borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Since we don't have much to discuss, let me tear it apart. Surface temps above freezing and 850s borderline.NCRain is available! Time for a name change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Since we don't have much to discuss, let me tear it apart. Surface temps above freezing and 850s borderline. LOL, plus not much QPF on this side of the Apps (2ms and 850s look okay to me, though). Destroys TN, though. Looks like a special storm for Franklin, as modeled. No I-95 runner, though, but he doesn't need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 NCRain is available! Time for a name change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Day 10 Euro = amazeballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Day 10 Euro = amazeballs Do you like mild rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Do you like mild rain? Yeah, it's spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 00z GGEM is a hit for NC/TN at D9-10. Interesting. the good old 10 days again. would love to have just a couple of those 10 day storms, would be very happy. Just never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 LOL, plus not much QPF on this side of the Apps (2ms and 850s look okay to me, though). Destroys TN, though. Looks like a special storm for Franklin, as modeled. No I-95 runner, though, but he doesn't need it! I'll gladly take a nice overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'll gladly take a nice overrunning event. Yep, models have been hinting at this, even the GFS clown runs from a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ^WAA precip is the easiest and most consistent moisture to get. Usually we have overrunning events in nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Pretty disconcerting that TWC is forecasting 60's all week starting on the 28th. Hope they're just gambling for the warm solution. Models have been missing the temps imby...you're probably right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 06z GFS has an awesome CAD event day 10...This time period is definitely on my radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yep, models have been hinting at this, even the GFS clown runs from a couple of days ago. Looks like the 06z OP run today Edit: Actually, has a nice overrunning event day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 More GEFS talk... (sorry)... block over the top swings the PV down south of Hudson bay. Pretty impressive anomalies for a mean this far out. Would be nice to cash in during this time, for the first time this year this could be a hint at somewhat sustained blocking or at least a pattern cold enough to produce all snow over the area. Consider myself interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 More GEFS talk... (sorry)... block over the top swings the PV down south of Hudson bay. Pretty impressive anomalies for a mean this far out. Would be nice to cash in during this time, for the first time this year this could be a hint at somewhat sustained blocking or at least a pattern cold enough to produce all snow over the area. Consider myself interested. You must not have been watching the last several runs of the Euro, EPS, Euro para. All of them keep the PV locked up too far to the north. I will be skeptical until some of them come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 You must not have been watching the last several runs of the Euro, EPS, Euro para. All of them keep the PV locked up too far to the north. I will be skeptical until some of them come on board. I watch the Euro and EPS, so yes I have been watching. Saying "i'm interested" doesn't mean I'm all in. The models are having a hard time with the block and PV, where it goes, what the west looks like, etc. Just nothing what the GFS/GEFS shows. It's not a bad look even if it's the GFS, it's an ensemble. It can't be ignored because the EPS doesn't show it. BOTH the GFS and Euro suck Day 10. Euro has a score around 0.6 if I remember correctly for verification at Day 10. Edit: GFS para is actually better at Day 10 w/ PNA... Who has the better verificaiton score for February might surprise you. Hint: it's not the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS day 7-10 looking more interesting. 1040+ high entering plains with nice overrunning. If Euro leans that way we may have a last hurrah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z GFS is coming in like a wrecking ball for NC...overrunning event and low is now one system. Impressive cold too. Can't hate the model for run-to-run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lol... This is with ice factored out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 You can't draw a snowstorm up much better than that for our area. Starts as overrunning over an artic boundary and turns into miller a taking deep south track. High in great spot for caa throughout event. Still a long way out, but gfs as been very consistent with overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Becoming slightly interested in days 7-10, that GEFS graphic Jon posted above does not look bad by any stretch and matches up with the op Euro for the period. The Euro does have a pos tilt shortwave in the middle MS River Valley day 7, something to watch as it should be cold enough. After that, there is some support on the GFS individual mems for a more widespread p-type event between day 8 and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z GFS is coming in like a wrecking ball for NC...overrunning event and low is now one system. Impressive cold too. Can't hate the model for run-to-run consistency.Wasn't there two GFS op runs in a row that showed a mega bomb storm about this time, the one with 4" of sleet for CAE? Then dropped it the 3rd run!? A few days back? Maybe it's back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lol... This is with ice factored out: 12zgfs.png a lot of that would actually be snow through NC. Edit: Just double read what you said; so yes very impressive snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Wasn't there two GFS op runs in a row that showed a mega bomb storm about this time, the one with 4" of sleet for CAE? Then dropped it the 3rd run!? A few days back? Maybe it's back?Yes the 12z and 18z on 2/18 showed back to back crush jobs in the SE early March. I believe around 2/3-5...was day 15 fantasy now day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lol... This is with ice factored out: 12zgfs.png Nice how it almost misses CAE and then gives Aiken or Augusta some love! Just wish it wasn't 8-10 days away, and not going to basically be March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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