Jon Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 ^I agree. I knew we would have multiple chances this winter but that didn't mean multiple measurable snowfall events. El Nino winters often have 1 storm that can make or break winter and give a majority of people their climo average or more and that's what I was banking on this winter, just one. Take 1983 for instance, we had 4 events here in NC but only one put RDU above climo and that was March 24th, we ended up with 10". That winter we had a -AO/-NAO J-F. For RDU specifically, I want to say the average of all strong El Ninos winter snow totals is near climo around 6-7". Therefore, most should have known what we were getting into: An average winter at best. Sustained wall to wall El Nino winter of 09-10 gave Raleigh 7.2"...that's not exactly stellar, so I don't really care about the -NAO. We just need a bit of luck. Interesting tidbit: Here are the average snowfall predictions made from our forum members, obviously the forum was underwhelmed headed into this winter. (N=22) PGV 4.3" RDU 6.7" GSO 10" CTL 7.1" AVL 15.5" GSP 7.2" CAE 2.7" ATL 2.6" MCN 1.1" Hopefully this tempers some expectations and we finish off winter with a bang. I need some more numbers to add to my 1/2" total this year. Also, we got some decent ice/sleet events so not all is lost. The 10-15 day continues to look impressive on the EPS and parallel EPS with a -AO/-NAO/+PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Great post, Jon! Let's hope we can pull a rabbit out the hat ala 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I would like to see the southern stream get more active with waves coming onshore in southern California. If we can get the wave train going with the high latitude blocking then getting snow would be much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Same ole, same ole Yikes that's definitely a severe look for parts of the SE, especially along the Gulf coast and maybe into the Carolinas. Gonna have to watch that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That ridge over the NE is really aggravating to see. We need the Atlantic to flip for future winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I thought we could only change names once every 30000 hours!? Some people are special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I thought we could only change names once every 30000 hours!? Some people are special I didn't, it was just a bad dream, like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 There's JB's everywhere Mack!!! lol I'm having a bit of fun with JB on twitter. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 12h12 hours ago Howling wind snap to our basketball court. We will not be able to rebuild from this 0 retweets8 likes Reply Retweet Like 8 More John Burns @jburns165 12h12 hours ago @BigJoeBastardi Leave it. Maybe you finally will be able to dunk. View conversation 0 retweets0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I thought we could only change names once every 30000 hours!? Some people are special I wish I could change my name back. I miss my old name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wish I could change my name back. I miss my old name I never liked Wilkesboro dude anyway, I like your new name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wish I could change my name back. I miss my old name You can. If you join as a paying member in the money drive u can change it every 90 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 You can. If you join as a paying member in the money drive u can change it every 90 days.Ding ding ding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEFS picking up on overrunning threat around March 1st or so. Need it further south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Well got up to look at this morning's models and discussion and see that they folded to same ol' solution we've seen a lot this winter. Next week will be cool and wet with a double low solution. Main low tracking up the west side of the Apps. A met over on Accuweather last December wrote that the predominant storm track would favor cutters and Apps runners. I thought he would have to wrong with the STJ and El Nino. No -NAO, no blocking and he's been right so far. Indices do look better after this week. Hopefully this solution holds. Hard to believe this will be the 4th winter in a row where we can't get a sustained -NAO. However, I've gotten 4 " imby so far this winter. For those keeping score at home, that's about where I was in 83 before we got the March Madness record breaker. 82/83 was touted as the closest analog by many. Sorry if banter I don't think our storm track has ever not been predominately cutters and Apps runners. Especially the last few years. We almost have to have a -NAO to get a decent snowfall around here. We hardly ever get the timing right without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro was amazeballs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro was amazeballs! Big dog for central Quebec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Big dog for central Quebec! Will it produce its own cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Will it produce its own cold? Rates will overcome all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Seems we have needed a SE trend more than the usual NE trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The 10-15 day continues to look impressive on the EPS and parallel EPS with a -AO/-NAO/+PNA Well, according to the NC Climate Office, that is the combo that has given us more snow storms than average in the past. But it doesn't seem like anything works out now like it used to around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Well, according to the NC Climate Office, that is the combo that has given us more snow storms than average in the past. But it doesn't seem like anything works out now like it used to around here. Synoptics > Index values, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Synoptics > Index values, basically. Very true. Still, if anyone's looking for any chance at a nice snowstorm, this timeframe looks to be our best (and probably last) shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That 18z run is hilarious. LP goes from N AL to Ohio. Nearly due north. 15'-16' winter has been a comedy show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Very true. Still, if anyone's looking for any chance at a nice snowstorm, this timeframe looks to be our best (and probably last) shot.Yup, agree 100%. Hopefully we can luck into one last winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yup, agree 100%. Hopefully we can luck into one last winter storm.We don't luck into snow, we will have piles and piles of luck, while scoring heat and drought this summer! 93' redux incoming- JShet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That 18z run is hilarious. LP goes from N AL to Ohio. Nearly due north. 15'-16' winter has been a comedy show. Plus we have a Great Lakes Low, AND AND a HP that's moving out like a bat outta hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'm having a bit of fun with JB on twitter. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 12h12 hours ago Howling wind snap to our basketball court. We will not be able to rebuild from this 0 retweets8 likes Reply Retweet Like 8 More John Burns @jburns165 12h12 hours ago @BigJoeBastardi Leave it. Maybe you finally will be able to dunk. View conversation 0 retweets0 likes ha ha. JB... lol I maean J Burns................. See you never know who i'm referring to when I use JB!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well at least ole JB still has a snowpack. Saw a coyote tearing into deer about 20 yards off the side of the road today. Probably hit by a car. But this coyote had to have been a coywolf or the hybrid whatever they term them now. He was healthy. It's getting as common to see and hear them out where I live as it is the deer now, which is saying alot. Anyway "now you know the rest of the story" slow in here tonight. Usually it the second week of March before it's this quiet. Percusor to next winters super lanina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Canadian showing some pretty cold afternoon temps for end of February. Will it happen? Probably not, but the only thing I see to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like there's some potential around D10, in all seriousness. We'll see. The 00z GFS was close... We suck at winter so we'll probably strike out, but it's worth a swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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