superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The hell is the GFS doing? [/sNIPPED IMAGE] Looks like this thing may trend into a Denver blizzard before it's all said and done. Swing and a miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Here's yesterday's 12z/18z GFS superstorm. Looks like some good rain, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The hell is the GFS doing? Well, if it's gonna go out, it might as well go out with a bang. While I can't speak for those to my southeast, I'm pretty content with this season. I've gotten about 5" of snow/sleet between this past Sunday and the January storm, not to mention multiple flizzards. That's only about 0.5-1" below what (I think) is climo for my area, so I can't really complain. Didn't get to see a real nice big dog like I was hoping for, but it is what it is. Beggars can't be choosers. At this point, whatever more I get will just be a nice, fluffy, white icing on the cake. That being said, March 1st here I come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looks like this thing may trend into a Denver blizzard before it's all said and done. Swing and a miss! Only in the SE can you have a system that's forecast track changes by 3 states in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 very disappointing guys, I thought for sure this would trend in our favor by now, at least the second wave I thought would be snow . where the hell is the cold air, this is still winter if no one has noticed, sorry fellows just very frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I want snow so bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!$&$(('nbn!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I want snow so bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!$&$(('nbn!!!! We can't suck forever. I just want to see the grass and tree limbs covered, 1-2" snow. Seems monumental though. The day 8-13 pattern, right around March 1st, will probably be our last stand. It's a good as we can hope for, definitely Jan 2014 type pattern, with PNA/AO connected over the top of the PV just east of HB EPS/EPS-para agree on setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The para-eps and eps look very March 80'ish too. Nice overrunning pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 ^^ Love the Pacific. The rest of it looks really familiar....like sleet to ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We can't suck forever. I just want to see the grass and tree limbs covered, 1-2" snow. Seems monumental though. The day 8-13 pattern, right around March 1st, will probably be our last stand. It's a good as we can hope for, definitely Jan 2014 type pattern, with PNA/AO connected over the top of the PV just east of HB EPS/EPS-para agree on setup. you would think we couldn't suck forever but it sure looks like there is no end in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I want snow so bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!$&$(('nbn!!!! We do too. We've decided to plan a trip to Quebec next winter. No lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We do too. We've decided to plan a trip to Quebec next winter. No lie. That sounds like fun! Take some pics so you can remember what snow looks like when you return to the tropical southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 ^^ Love the Pacific. The rest of it looks really familiar....like sleet to ice to rain. We might flake for a few mins then migrate to our patented sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 FWIW- From LC, You should be watching the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday for updates concerning the winter storm threat for Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Feb 24 - 27. What I can tell you now is that there is excellent ensemble agreement on the scenario, but almost nothing consistent in the operational versions of the major equations. Those are literally all over the place. I think a blend of the GGEM Model Suite and ECMWF ensemble group will work the best for verification. A highly blocked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration is evolving (yes, I have heard the Internet buzz about "no blocking evident" and wonder just where these people had their eye exams done....) and should force a track through the Gulf States and then up just off the Atlantic Coastline. The Canadian equation snow total map is not a perfect match but will do for now. Once this system passes, we are in for a fairly long-lived period of chilly, sometimes quite cold, conditions across the eastern half of the nation. I haven't even been paying attention last couple days, can someone enlighten me on what the GGEM and Euro ensemble are showing for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 FWIW- From LC, You should be watching the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday for updates concerning the winter storm threat for Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Feb 24 - 27. What I can tell you now is that there is excellent ensemble agreement on the scenario, but almost nothing consistent in the operational versions of the major equations. Those are literally all over the place. I think a blend of the GGEM Model Suite and ECMWF ensemble group will work the best for verification. A highly blocked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration is evolving (yes, I have heard the Internet buzz about "no blocking evident" and wonder just where these people had their eye exams done....) and should force a track through the Gulf States and then up just off the Atlantic Coastline. The Canadian equation snow total map is not a perfect match but will do for now. Once this system passes, we are in for a fairly long-lived period of chilly, sometimes quite cold, conditions across the eastern half of the nation. I haven't even been paying attention last couple days, can someone enlighten me on what the GGEM and Euro ensemble are showing for this event? Isn't he the JB of the south! Always saying a cold snowy pattern is coming!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 FWIW- From LC, You should be watching the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday for updates concerning the winter storm threat for Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Feb 24 - 27. What I can tell you now is that there is excellent ensemble agreement on the scenario, but almost nothing consistent in the operational versions of the major equations. Those are literally all over the place. I think a blend of the GGEM Model Suite and ECMWF ensemble group will work the best for verification. A highly blocked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration is evolving (yes, I have heard the Internet buzz about "no blocking evident" and wonder just where these people had their eye exams done....) and should force a track through the Gulf States and then up just off the Atlantic Coastline. The Canadian equation snow total map is not a perfect match but will do for now. Once this system passes, we are in for a fairly long-lived period of chilly, sometimes quite cold, conditions across the eastern half of the nation. I haven't even been paying attention last couple days, can someone enlighten me on what the GGEM and Euro ensemble are showing for this event? The GGEM ensembles are the only model showing what he is talking about. Everything else, (Euro/EPS, Para/P-EPS, GEFS/GFS) are all showing some form of inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I know its a clown map but DGEX now has snow on western part of NC. Maybe one day they will be right. You know it funny. Maps can sniff out a warm up a weeks before it happens but a snow storm bounces all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Isn't he the JB of the south! Always saying a cold snowy pattern is coming!? There's JB's everywhere Mack!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 There's JB's everywhere Mack!!! lolYeah, maybe the analogs were off by a month, and the Fab Feb , was actually Marvelous March!The analogs couldn't be wrong again???!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah, maybe the analogs were off by a month, and the Fab Feb , was actually Marvelous March! The analogs couldn't be wrong again???!!? lol, sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'm assuming the 00z models looks really good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Good news folks. I just read an article on weather.com and its calling for " much below average" temps for much of the southeast in March. Fun times ahead ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'm assuming the 00z models looks really good! Same ole, same ole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Same ole, same ole Just not or year, we can't catch a break for nothing! Every chance lasts one model run, then down the tube it goes next run!! Unreal our luck. I do realize we live in the south though. Imma getting sick of looking at models, I'm ready for spring 70s and 80s and a little golf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We do too. We've decided to plan a trip to Quebec next winter. No lie. Hope this December doesn't repeat itself next winter... Montreal saw NO snow until the last week of the month and saw many days in the 50s and 60s. Maybe Nunavut would be a safer trip if you want to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Hope this December doesn't repeat itself next winter... Montreal saw NO snow until the last week of the month and saw many days in the 50s and 60s. Maybe Nunavut would be a safer trip if you want to see snow. I agree i went to Toronto a few weeks back and my buddy was telling me that they have seen less snow there then some parts in NC... Where are you mini ice age !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I agree i went to Toronto a few weeks back and my buddy was telling me that they have seen less snow there then some parts in NC... Where are you mini ice age !!! typical nino climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 typical nino climo= sucky winter for all! Glad we are going into JBs 3 or 4 warm winters in a row, cause this one has been brutal, sooo much snow and cold! We need a 3-4 year thaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Hope this December doesn't repeat itself next winter... Montreal saw NO snow until the last week of the month and saw many days in the 50s and 60s. Maybe Nunavut would be a safer trip if you want to see snow. We're actually interested in the Winter Carnival, so we'd be going in late January if we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Well got up to look at this morning's models and discussion and see that they folded to same ol' solution we've seen a lot this winter. Next week will be cool and wet with a double low solution. Main low tracking up the west side of the Apps. A met over on Accuweather last December wrote that the predominant storm track would favor cutters and Apps runners. I thought he would have to wrong with the STJ and El Nino. No -NAO, no blocking and he's been right so far. Indices do look better after this week. Hopefully this solution holds. Hard to believe this will be the 4th winter in a row where we can't get a sustained -NAO. However, I've gotten 4 " imby so far this winter. For those keeping score at home, that's about where I was in 83 before we got the March Madness record breaker. 82/83 was touted as the closest analog by many. Sorry if banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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