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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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The hell is the GFS doing?

npMhzrf.png

Well, if it's gonna go out, it might as well go out with a bang.

While I can't speak for those to my southeast, I'm pretty content with this season. I've gotten about 5" of snow/sleet between this past Sunday and the January storm, not to mention multiple flizzards. That's only about 0.5-1" below what (I think) is climo for my area, so I can't really complain. Didn't get to see a real nice big dog like I was hoping for, but it is what it is. Beggars can't be choosers.

At this point, whatever more I get will just be a nice, fluffy, white icing on the cake. That being said, March 1st here I come! :)

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I want snow so bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!$&$(('nbn!!!!

 

:bag:   We can't suck forever.  I just want to see the grass and tree limbs covered, 1-2" snow.  Seems monumental though.

 

The day 8-13 pattern, right around March 1st, will probably be our last stand.  It's a good as we can hope for, definitely Jan 2014 type pattern, with PNA/AO connected over the top of the PV just east of HB  EPS/EPS-para agree on setup.    :snowing:

 

compday.dgRb40p8Mn.gif

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_8.png

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:bag:   We can't suck forever.  I just want to see the grass and tree limbs covered, 1-2" snow.  Seems monumental though.

 

The day 8-13 pattern, right around March 1st, will probably be our last stand.  It's a good as we can hope for, definitely Jan 2014 type pattern, with PNA/AO connected over the top of the PV just east of HB  EPS/EPS-para agree on setup.    :snowing:

 

compday.dgRb40p8Mn.gif

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_8.png

you would think we couldn't suck forever but it sure looks like there is no end in sight

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FWIW- From LC,

 

You should be watching the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday for updates concerning the winter storm threat for Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Feb 24 - 27. What I can tell you now is that there is excellent ensemble agreement on the scenario, but almost nothing consistent in the operational versions of the major equations. Those are literally all over the place.

 

I think a blend of the GGEM Model Suite and ECMWF ensemble group will work the best for verification. A highly blocked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration is evolving (yes, I have heard the Internet buzz about "no blocking evident" and wonder just where these people had their eye exams done....) and should force a track through the Gulf States and then up just off the Atlantic Coastline. The Canadian equation snow total map is not a perfect match but will do for now.

Once this system passes, we are in for a fairly long-lived period of chilly, sometimes quite cold, conditions across the eastern half of the nation.

 

I haven't even been paying attention last couple days, can someone enlighten me on what the GGEM and Euro ensemble are showing for this event? 

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FWIW- From LC,

You should be watching the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday for updates concerning the winter storm threat for Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Feb 24 - 27. What I can tell you now is that there is excellent ensemble agreement on the scenario, but almost nothing consistent in the operational versions of the major equations. Those are literally all over the place.

I think a blend of the GGEM Model Suite and ECMWF ensemble group will work the best for verification. A highly blocked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration is evolving (yes, I have heard the Internet buzz about "no blocking evident" and wonder just where these people had their eye exams done....) and should force a track through the Gulf States and then up just off the Atlantic Coastline. The Canadian equation snow total map is not a perfect match but will do for now.

Once this system passes, we are in for a fairly long-lived period of chilly, sometimes quite cold, conditions across the eastern half of the nation.

I haven't even been paying attention last couple days, can someone enlighten me on what the GGEM and Euro ensemble are showing for this event?

Isn't he the JB of the south! Always saying a cold snowy pattern is coming!?
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FWIW- From LC,

 

You should be watching the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday for updates concerning the winter storm threat for Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Feb 24 - 27. What I can tell you now is that there is excellent ensemble agreement on the scenario, but almost nothing consistent in the operational versions of the major equations. Those are literally all over the place.

 

I think a blend of the GGEM Model Suite and ECMWF ensemble group will work the best for verification. A highly blocked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration is evolving (yes, I have heard the Internet buzz about "no blocking evident" and wonder just where these people had their eye exams done....) and should force a track through the Gulf States and then up just off the Atlantic Coastline. The Canadian equation snow total map is not a perfect match but will do for now.

Once this system passes, we are in for a fairly long-lived period of chilly, sometimes quite cold, conditions across the eastern half of the nation.

 

I haven't even been paying attention last couple days, can someone enlighten me on what the GGEM and Euro ensemble are showing for this event? 

 

 

The GGEM ensembles are the only model showing what he is talking about.  Everything else, (Euro/EPS, Para/P-EPS, GEFS/GFS) are all showing some form of inland runner.  

 

gem-ens_z500_mslp_us_21.png

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Same ole, same ole :axe:

 

ecmwf_T850_seus_6.png

Just not or year, we can't catch a break for nothing! Every chance lasts one model run, then down the tube it goes next run!! Unreal our luck. I do realize we live in the south though. Imma getting sick of looking at models, I'm ready for spring 70s and 80s and a little golf! 

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We do too.  We've decided to plan a trip to Quebec next winter.  No lie.

Hope this December doesn't repeat itself next winter... Montreal saw NO snow until the last week of the month and saw many days in the 50s and 60s.  Maybe Nunavut would be a safer trip if you want to see snow.

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Hope this December doesn't repeat itself next winter... Montreal saw NO snow until the last week of the month and saw many days in the 50s and 60s.  Maybe Nunavut would be a safer trip if you want to see snow.

I agree i went to Toronto a few weeks back and my buddy was telling me that they have seen less snow there then some parts in NC... Where are you mini ice age !!! :( 

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Well got up to look at this morning's models  and discussion and see that they folded to same ol' solution we've seen a lot this winter.  Next week will be cool and wet with a double low solution. Main low tracking up the west side of the Apps.

 

A met over on Accuweather last December wrote that the predominant storm track would favor cutters and Apps runners.  I thought he would have to wrong with the STJ and El Nino.  No -NAO, no blocking and he's been right so far.

 

Indices do look better after this week.  Hopefully this solution holds.  Hard to believe this will be the 4th winter in a row where we can't get a sustained -NAO.  However, I've gotten  4 " imby so far this winter.  For those keeping score at home, that's about where I was in 83 before we got the March Madness record breaker.  82/83 was touted as the closest analog by many.  Sorry if banter

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