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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

TARHEELPROGRAMMER

By TARHEELPROGRAMMER,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

no, it does suck that we have not had one true Miller a, or overrunning event. I figured by now we would have had at least one.

 

I am as surprised as anyone this winter has been this bad, I didn't think we would be breaking any records, but thought we would have had atleast one 2-4" snow.  I really thought the mountains would clean house.  Looks like it's a TN/KY and of course as always a MA winter.  I am looking forward to a strong nina winter next year, a 99 redux.

 

Still believe if we just have normal luck we will have an event day 8-15.  After first week of March it gets really tough for my area, your area is still in the game for a few more weeks.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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I am as surprised as anyone this winter has been this bad, I didn't think we would be breaking any records, but thought we would have had atleast one 2-4" snow. I really thought the mountains would clean house. Looks like it's a TN/KY and of course as always a MA winter. I am looking forward to a strong nina winter next year, a 99 redux.

Still believe if we just have normal luck we will have an event day 8-15. After first week of March it gets really tough for my area, your area is still in the game for a few more weeks.

Chattanooga and a lot of southern Tenn is below in the snow dept. I think the North ga mtns are low too. It seems like another mid Atlantic year, what's new?
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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Chattanooga and a lot of southern Tenn is below in the snow dept. I think the North ga mtns are low too. It seems like another mid Atlantic year, what's new?

 

I have a bunch of work friends up in NoVA, it's funny talking to them.  There mentality is so different, they expect 30-40" winters now and multiple 10" events in a winter.  They are actually disappointed with this winter because they haven't received a big February event.  I just laugh and shake my head, reality is going to set in eventually, maybe not in our lifetimes it seems though.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
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I have a bunch of work friends up in NoVA, it's funny talking to them. There mentality is so different, they expect 30-40" winters now and multiple 10" events in a winter. They are actually disappointed with this winter because they haven't received a big February event. I just laugh and shake my head, reality is going to set in eventually, maybe not in our lifetimes it seems though.

I'm at 14 inches of snow for the winter which is 150% of normal plus a major ice storm of 1/2 inch. So been an above average winter here so far and March has been very good to the mtns and foothills in the past!

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I'm at 14 inches of snow for the winter which is 150% of normal plus a major ice storm of 1/2 inch. So been an above average winter here so far and March has been very good to the mtns and foothills in the past!

 

Wow, that's good to hear.  For some reason I thought it was a struggle.  Hopefully you guys continue on.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
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Southern Mtns below 3000/foothills  and beleive northern coastal plain are the only ones at or above climo this year. I thought coastal plain would come in the highest above this year. I knew the mtns above 3000 wouldnt, espeacilly west facing slopes. Not enough NW flow in strong ninos, which is where they get lions share of their snow as it nickle/dimes not so much big synoptic storms. Next Year the western facing slopes will cash in strong lanina. it'll be form NWFS. Those of us east of the apps will be in the valley of the dry bones.

 

Anyway I hope we never see another strong el nino. They are for the birds winter weather wise unless you like mildew and above normal temps over half to 3/4 the winter. Hated it in 97/98 and 15/16. + 10 December and 3 inches of 99% sleet, which is 50% less than climo. 

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packbacker

packbacker

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Southern Mtns below 3000/foothills  and beleive northern coastal plain are the only ones at or above climo this year. I thought coastal plain would come in the highest above this year. I knew the mtns above 3000 wouldnt, espeacilly west facing slopes. Not enough NW flow in strong ninos, which is where they get lions share of their snow as it nickle/dimes not so much big synoptic storms. Next Year the western facing slopes will cash in strong lanina. it'll be form NWFS. Those of us east of the apps will be in the valley of the dry bones.

 

Anyway I hope we never see another strong el nino. They are for the birds winter weather wise unless you like mildew and above normal temps over half to 3/4 the winter. Hated it in 97/98 and 15/16. + 10 December and 3 inches of 99% sleet, which is 50% less than climo. 

 

Amen on nino's, hopefully we don't see a nino for some time.  They have sucked for us since the 90's (92/95/98/05/07/16).   

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
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I am as surprised as anyone this winter has been this bad, I didn't think we would be breaking any records, but thought we would have had atleast one 2-4" snow. I really thought the mountains would clean house. Looks like it's a TN/KY and of course as always a MA winter. I am looking forward to a strong nina winter next year, a 99 redux.

Still believe if we just have normal luck we will have an event day 8-15. After first week of March it gets really tough for my area, your area is still in the game for a few more weeks.

wasn't last year also a TN/KY winter ? Also, wasn't 2010-11 a strong la Nina winter or was it weak ? I know that was a great winter around here.
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TARHEELPROGRAMMER

TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Well at the start of this thread I mentioned how I thought this month would be mostly rain and by rain I mean cold cold rain. I feel good about my prediction so far but I can not shake this feeling that something may happen during the first week of March. Probably a good snow storm for some people. The models seem to hint at the possibility at that time frame and even toward the end of this month (gulp). I would love to see this whole board get a good storm but it is not our year. Just picture this winter as this current season for my Tar Heels and you will understand it is not our year (will not be Tar Heel's year again until Roy is gone). Hear is to hoping we all get buried but in the end some people have already gotten good snow toward the mountains and for that I am jealous  :)

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

Posted
Posted

wasn't last year also a TN/KY winter ? Also, wasn't 2010-11 a strong la Nina winter or was it weak ? I know that was a great winter around here.

 

2010-11 was a Moderate La Nina, and it was an excellent winter here.  Really the last excellent one we had for snow.

 

Last year was also good further north of Georgia, but again, IMHO last year in many ways behaved as a moderate/strong El Nino in the end.

 

I haven't had enough snow in a single fall to fully cover the bermuda in several years, which is my threshold for "good snow" (not being able to see the dirt/grass).  So perhaps if we do roll into a Nina we'll get a good storm or two again.  I'd gladly enjoy a 1/9/2011 event again.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH says maybe a little snow for the NW Piedmont next Wed night?

 

NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER WILL FEATURE A TREND FROM WARM TEMPS SUNDAY BACK
DOWN NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK... ALONG WITH
WET WEATHER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL SEE FOUR MAIN ROUNDS
OF PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD: (1) LOW COVERAGE/QPF EVENT LATE SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT... (2) BETTER COVERAGE/QPF ESPECIALLY WEST LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT... (3) WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE... AND (4) ONE LAST SHOT
OF PRECIP SPREADING IN FROM THE SW LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT.

 

PRECIP ROUND (4): THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHOT OF ENERGY SHIFTING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIKELY POPS... PERHAPS ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE BACK SIDE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
MOVE OUT JUST PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK THU.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

RAH says maybe a little snow for the NW Piedmont next Wed night?

 

NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER WILL FEATURE A TREND FROM WARM TEMPS SUNDAY BACK

DOWN NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK... ALONG WITH

WET WEATHER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL SEE FOUR MAIN ROUNDS

OF PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD: (1) LOW COVERAGE/QPF EVENT LATE SUN

INTO SUN NIGHT... (2) BETTER COVERAGE/QPF ESPECIALLY WEST LATE MON

INTO MON NIGHT... (3) WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE... AND (4) ONE LAST SHOT

OF PRECIP SPREADING IN FROM THE SW LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT.

 

PRECIP ROUND (4): THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHOT OF ENERGY SHIFTING

THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER

SHOT OF LIKELY POPS... PERHAPS ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON

THE BACK SIDE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. THIS PRECIP SHOULD

MOVE OUT JUST PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK THU.

If the first wave can amp up a bit it can produce some decent 850's for a mix/snow in the piedmont/mountains for the 2nd wave, we'll see.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

There's our storm ! That must be wave 2, and it's going to be a plains runner! It'll set the table for 3/1/16! :)

hey you never know ;) With the highs plowing through the US this run and the active flow (I counted 6 waves in 10 days last run), we may have a shot!

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

hey you never know ;) With the highs plowing through the US this run and the active flow (I counted 6 waves in 10 days last run), we may have a shot!

Honestly, the models have been showing big, cold highs for awhile, and last weekend was kind of impressive, but models at some point, had that outbreak 10-15 degrees colder, than verification! That being said, getting near March, can only hurt that!
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