NGA WINTER Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So you don't think the ensemble means can go back the other direction if they made that big of a jump in one cycle? Maybe we can only get things like that to trend in a worse direction instead of a better one. Brick they were our last hope. Give up like the rest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Brick they were our last hope. Give up like the rest lol It's one cycle, and we still have a few days to go. East posted that video early this morning. If he says there is still a lot of uncertainty and the models are not handling it well and having wild swings, then I tend to believe him when he says all options are still on the table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's one cycle, and we still have a few days to go. East posted that video early this morning. If he says there is still a lot of uncertainty and the models are not handling it well and having wild swings, then I tend to believe him when he says all options are still on the table now.He also said that he's forecasting a rain event right now and the southeastern track that the storm would take to give the western Carolinas snow is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 He also said that he's forecasting a rain event right now and the southeastern track that the storm would take to give the western Carolinas snow is an outlier. Yup, right now. Just have to see if things change the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yup, right now. Just have to see if things change the next couple of days. The entire atmosphere would have to change to get a snowstorm outside of the mountains with this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's one cycle, and we still have a few days to go. East posted that video early this morning. If he says there is still a lot of uncertainty and the models are not handling it well and having wild swings, then I tend to believe him when he says all options are still on the table now. Well think of it this way... Matt said the models aren't handling the system right, while true that can't be interpreted to the EPS not handling the system right. Keep in mind the reason ensembles were developed, to adjust for small differences that the operational has wrong at initialization. So the mean track now has a huge cluster of lows over TN @ hr 132 with only a handful of lows that are not clustered off the coast. What that tells me is two things 1) The EPS favors Miller B at the very least 2) More than likely it now favors an inland track. You don't normally see big jumps in the EPS like this and I doubt it "jumps back" to the coast after such a dramatic change. Even then, we are simply lacking cold air. This one is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As long as there is a ridge over NF it will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Look, here is the high-scoring king Euro depiction at 5 days: The PV is WAAAAAAY up in central Canada. Sure, the PNA ridge is pretty nice, but look at the flow. The storm track is such that the low would almost certainly track over land. But let's assume it didn't. Even if it takes the perfect track, it will be rain for areas outside the mountains (and even there, it would be very iffy). That is, of course, unless the low bombs out like it was showing several days ago. And even then, it would be a close call for some. But no model is showing that. Considering that and the fact that we see a thousand bombs at D10 all winter long that actually materialize as marginal storms, the odds are very long indeed that we get a bomb. And look at where all of the really cold air is...WAAAAAAY up in Canada. Can things trend colder? Sure. 38 and rain instead of 45 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 why is it we get these great storms showing up 10 days out then 2 days later its just a rain event. I would think by now all the models could predict better 10 days out than what they do being all the improvements to the models. It's not an issue of the models being bad, it's an issue of data ingestion. The models work fantastically, but they don't receive enough data. Brad P had a nice post on this recently. Until we can sample the atmosphere at each and every cubic inch in each and every layer, we will not get extremely accurate predictions multiple days in advance. Meteorology is not fortune-telling. It will continue to be an inexact science for years to come, and it would behoove us all to come to grips with that, rather than complaining ad infinitum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The entire atmosphere would have to change to get a snowstorm outside of the mountains with this next system.It'll come SE, I feel it in my gut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Look, here is the high-scoring king Euro depiction at 5 days: The PV is WAAAAAAY up in central Canada. Sure, the PNA ridge is pretty nice, but look at the flow. The storm track is such that the low would almost certainly track over land. But let's assume it didn't. Even if it takes the perfect track, it will be rain for areas outside the mountains (and even there, it would be very iffy). That is, of course, unless the low bombs out like it was showing several days ago. And even then, it would be a close call for some. But no model is showing that. Considering that and the fact that we see a thousand bombs at D10 all winter long that actually materialize as marginal storms, the odds are very long indeed that we get a bomb. And look at where all of the really cold air is...WAAAAAAY up in Canada. Can things trend colder? Sure. 38 and rain instead of 45 and rain. f120.jpg That's great and all, but what does the new king and prince say! The NAM and RGEM!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It'll come SE, I feel it in my gut! It'll have to track SE through Cuba to get the cold air here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think it is become clear now that any wintry precipitation the remainder of the winter will be confined to west of 77 in NC and possibly Tenn. and even they may have to get lucky. Even though the indices after Mar 1st look decent (-NAO, -AO, +PNA and -EPO), it is unlikely we will score if the current 5H projections end up being accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 All the Debbie Downers in here! So the ensembles basically all shifted 300 miles west !? They can just as easily shift 500 miles SE again and bring down 20 degree colder air! We are still 5 days away, jeez ! And storms always dissapear 8 days out on the GFS or flip to rainstorms, the 4" of sleet runs will be back and the Euro should start picking up on it in the next day or two ! The pattern looks amazeballs Fro the 24th-5th timeframe ! I'm all in on our best look all winter! Game on, two legit threats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think it is become clear now that any wintry precipitation the remainder of the winter will be confined to west of 77 in NC and possibly Tenn. and even they may have to get lucky. Even though the indices after Mar 1st look decent (-NAO, -AO, +PNA and -EPO), it is unlikely we will score if the current 5H projections end up being accurate.huh? 500mb pattern looks good on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not an issue of the models being bad, it's an issue of data ingestion. The models work fantastically, but they don't receive enough data. Brad P had a nice post on this recently. Until we can sample the atmosphere at each and every cubic inch in each and every layer, we will not get extremely accurate predictions multiple days in advance. Meteorology is not fortune-telling. It will continue to be an inexact science for years to come, and it would behoove us all to come to grips with that, rather than complaining ad infinitum. That makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why they do all these upgrades to the models but then don't add more weather balloon launch sites or upgrade their system of data ingestion. So that brings up the question as to why do they bother running a single model past about 5 days if the chances of it verifying are so small? Five days is even pushing it for accurate forecasts these days with the models. We might as well throw darts at a weather map on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The 00z Parallel Euro took the low way west. Great track for South Bend, IN. Pretty sure the D5 storm is cooked. Maybe we can hope that fairy tale GFS storm shows up again in a few days. EDIT: There's a 00z EPS member that drops 12-24" of snow here on February 25th, so I'll hug that, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why they do all these upgrades to the models but then don't add more weather balloon launch sites or upgrade their system of data ingestion. So that brings up the question as to why do they bother running a single model past about 5 days if the chances of it verifying are so small? Five days is even pushing it for accurate forecasts these days with the models. We might as well throw darts at a weather map on the wall. Having models and ensembles run out to 15 days or so can be useful in showing the general trends of the atmosphere. Pinpointing exact storm chances/tracks/precip types, et. al. is going to be fruitless for many years to come in that range. I think part of the problem is, when we have nothing to discuss within 5 days, we turn to the fantasy 10 day+ time frame. Then, some of us (not saying you) get mad at the models for being inaccurate and get mad at mets for not mentioning the storm chances and get all disappointed because the models showed a great storm that really didn't make much sense in the first place due to the general pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not an issue of the models being bad, it's an issue of data ingestion. The models work fantastically, but they don't receive enough data. Brad P had a nice post on this recently. Until we can sample the atmosphere at each and every cubic inch in each and every layer, we will not get extremely accurate predictions multiple days in advance. Meteorology is not fortune-telling. It will continue to be an inexact science for years to come, and it would behoove us all to come to grips with that, rather than complaining ad infinitum. Good post. I really just don't get the expectations sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well, the gfs looks different. Back to two separate pieces of energy for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well, the gfs looks different. Back to two separate pieces of energy for next week. There's that pesky GLL hanging around too. Of course it shows cold and dry afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs back to the two wave idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 For the 2nd wave to work we need to see the northern piece dig more and dive into the base of the trough instead of site seeing in the lakes. Probably too much analysis of the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As expected the models have converged of some sort of inland track. The big ridge over the NE is about the worst thing you can have for wanting a winter storm. But after this things improve by day 8+ and the pv starts to shift east and we get some nice blocking over the top. Not a bad overrunning pattern, just need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As expected the models have converged of some sort of inland track. The big ridge over the NE is about the worst thing you can have for wanting a winter storm. But after this things improve by day 8+ and the pv starts to shift east and we get some nice blocking over the top. Not a bad overrunning pattern, just need some luck.what's this "overrunning pattern" you speak of? Only types of storms anymore are cutters or Miller b's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As expected the models have converged of some sort of inland track. The big ridge over the NE is about the worst thing you can have for wanting a winter storm. But after this things improve by day 8+ and the pv starts to shift east and we get some nice blocking over the top. Not a bad overrunning pattern, just need some luck.what's this "overrunning pattern" you speak of? Only types of storms anymore are cutters or Miller b's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 what's this "overrunning pattern" you speak of? Only types of storms anymore are cutters or Miller b's LOL. Your not losing hope are you? We can't suck forever....or can we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 LOL. Your not losing hope are you? We can't suck forever....or can we.no, it does suck that we have not had one true Miller a, or overrunning event. I figured by now we would have had at least one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs back to the two wave idea.Cool, 2 waves of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Cool, 2 waves of rain! Double the pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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