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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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You know, as ridiculous as the 12z GFS was, the 18z GFS was even worse. That's the type of storm exclusively reserved for the 300+ hr GFS, unfortunately. It would be nice if real storms happened like that. :yikes:

Honestly, it's just textbook 300-hr GFS stuff. Wacky thermals, ridiculous QPF, 36-hr storms...

The good thing is, if it starts on the 29th, it's only 240 or so hours out !
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You know, as ridiculous as the 12z GFS was, the 18z GFS was even worse. That's the type of storm exclusively reserved for the 300+ hr GFS, unfortunately. It would be nice if real storms happened like that. :yikes:

Honestly, it's just textbook 300-hr GFS stuff. Wacky thermals, ridiculous QPF, 36-hr storms...

Starts day ten for Arkansas and tenn it's way inside hr 300 lol

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I would like to see this happen even if I didn't get an inch. It would be insane for the south to get those totals. Once in a lifetime type stuff. Like the blizzard of 1888

Speaking of, I listened to a podcast today on that year and they spent most of the time on this system: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoolhouse_Blizzard

They briefly mention the blizzard of 1888 we all know about on the east coast, but the schoolhouse one was especially chilling since it has to do with children.

Podcast can be found here, good stuff:

http://www.missedinhistory.com/podcasts/the-schoolhouse-blizzard/

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A big chunk of that is ZR also for the area.  I'd have to figure out how to get Tony up this way.  No way he could miss out on over 4 inches of sleet.  And I think that color scale is at the limit so it could be much more.

If that storm comes back on the maps later, I'll have to think about going to where it's the deepest, lol.  I'd prefer it come to me, and I was going to do pretty good if it verifies.  I just hope you get all sleet and snow, and no zr unless it's to put a crust on all your snow/ip, lol.  I'll start to get excited if it comes back and is there the last day of Feb, lol.  I've had two dustings, but I was hoping for more with all the split flows.  Plenty of time to pull a big one out of the hat yet. T

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I am not sure why I bothered to look, but the 00z Euro is a cold rain outside the mountains for the D5 system as the low runs a little inland.  Decent hit for the mountains, though.  I am sure the higher elevations get clocked.  Looks like a Shenandoah Valley Special up in VA.  It's really not that far off from getting some others involved, but that's just late-winter hope as no model shows anything in the lower elevations at this point.  This always seemed like a pattern that favored the mountains, if anything, ever since the EPS started advertising a possible Miller A early this week.

 

The 00z UKMET is a nice hit for Cleveland.  983 mb surface LP over Pittsburgh at hr 144, which is obviously just a wonderful track for winter weather lovers in the SE.  :yikes:

 

The 00z GGEM shows some snow in the mountains and maybe N NC to start off briefly, but it's largely a rainer.  Meanwhile, the 00z NAVGEM basically doesn't have a storm at all.

 

It's probably time to punt, basically.

 

Too bad the 12z/18z D12 GFS phantom superstorm turned into a rainer on the 00z run. :lol:

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I am not sure why I bothered to look, but the 00z Euro is a cold rain outside the mountains for the D5 system as the low runs a little inland. Decent hit for the mountains, though. I am sure the higher elevations get clocked. Looks like a Shenandoah Valley Special up in VA. It's really not that far off from getting some others involved, but that's just late-winter hope as no model shows anything in the lower elevations at this point. This always seemed like a pattern that favored the mountains, if anything, ever since the EPS started advertising a possible Miller A early this week.

The 00z UKMET is a nice hit for Cleveland. 983 mb surface LP over Pittsburgh at hr 144, which is obviously just a wonderful track for winter weather lovers in the SE. :yikes:

The 00z GGEM shows some snow in the mountains and maybe N NC to start off briefly, but it's largely a rainer. Meanwhile, the 00z NAVGEM basically doesn't have a storm at all.

It's probably time to punt, basically.

Too bad the 12z/18z D12 GFS phantom superstorm turned into a rainer on the 00z run. :lol:

850 temps are a furnace in the mtns.
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The EPS Mean track goes from the coastline to an Apps runner in one cycle. Are you kidding me? Just another example of how this winter has been for a lot of this board. I'm not expecting another flake of snow to add to the half inch I've gotten this winter unless blocking develops. And even then I would be cautiously optimistic.

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The EPS Mean track goes from the coastline to an Apps runner in one run. Are you kidding me? Just another example of how this winter has been for a lot of this board. I'm not expecting another flake of snow to add to the half inch I've gotten this winter unless blocking develops. And even then I would be cautiously optimistic.

 

Yep, nothing can ever break in our favor it seems. All the ensemble means have been advertising a miller A coastal, then in one cycle last night they all start showing an apps cutter...  NEXT!

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The EPS Mean track goes from the coastline to an Apps runner in one cycle. Are you kidding me? Just another example of how this winter has been for a lot of this board. I'm not expecting another flake of snow to add to the half inch I've gotten this winter unless blocking develops. And even then I would be cautiously optimistic.

Yeah. Really wasn't expecting the EPS to change that drastically but given the horrible spread I should have figured. Either way we'll get rain so why bother. We live in the same town, btw.

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Yep, nothing can ever break in our favor it seems. All the ensemble means have been advertising a miller A coastal, then in one cycle last night they all start showing an apps cutter...  NEXT!

why is it we get these great storms showing up 10 days out then 2 days later its just a rain event.  I would think by now all the models could predict better 10 days out than what they do being all the improvements to the models.

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So you don't think the ensemble means can go back the other direction if they made that big of a jump in one cycle? Maybe we can only get things like that to trend in a worse direction instead of a better one. I know Matthew East said on his video this morning there is still a lot of uncertainty about next week and the models are not handling the system well at all.

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