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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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February 2014 had a HP sliding out, as did March 2014.  In-situ CAD is a powerful thing (not saying that applies here).

The current GFS run would push freezing dew point temps out of our areas right before the precip moves in. Your right, CAD and especially in-situ CAD is never modeled correctly. There could at least (even with the exact pattern setup) be some icing issues for the strongest CAD areas (foothills & western piedmont).

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168hr panel on the free maps of the euro look good to me.  Miller  B'ish with an Excellent CAD signature. 850's are hovering around freezing for most people. Not sure on precip... anybody with weatherbell care to help out?

 

Close but no cigar.  Nice coastal, but precip isn't great inland and temperatures warm up just as the coastal lifts northward.  Not far off, though.  It looks better than it did yesterday, for sure.

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168hr panel on the free maps of the euro look good to me. Miller B'ish with an Excellent CAD signature. 850's are hovering around freezing for most people. Not sure on precip... anybody with weatherbell care to help out?

it's cold enough back our way but most moisture is confined to the coast. It looks like the low is gonna slide off the NC coast. Its definitely something to watch and hope it trends in our favor.
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PNA looks a little better on the CPC site. Yesterday it had most members going negative in the LR; today it has most members staying positive. NAO looks to continue positive. The AO looks good with a majority going negative.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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Yea,

 

Hopefully the Euro bias of dropping energy to far back in the Southwest will come into play here. If that energy was just a little faster and didn't detach so deeply into the 4 corners region, we would most likely be looking at a significant snow storm on the euro.

 

Edit: the real problem on the euro is from 96 to 120 when it almost stalls our 5h low over New Mexico. It looks wonky to me and I doubt it plays out like that, but we'll see.

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168hr panel on the free maps of the euro look good to me.  Miller  B'ish with an Excellent CAD signature. 850's are hovering around freezing for most people. Not sure on precip... anybody with weatherbell care to help out?

 

Yet again another GL Low messes up the cold air feed for this storm so even with a decent track there's no cold air for the storm to work with.

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Yea,

Hopefully the Euro bias of dropping energy to far back in the Southwest will come into play here. If that energy was just a little faster and didn't detach so deeply into the 4 corners region, we would most likely be looking at a significant snow storm on the euro.

Edit: the real problem on the euro is from 96 to 120 when it almost stalls our 5h low over New Mexico. It looks wonky to me and I doubt it plays out like that, but we'll see.

the ukie kicks it out quick so hopefully the Euro solution is too slow.
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I think there is too much being placed into the first wave. I'm actually more interested in the trailing vort at the base of the trough on Tuesday . Last night it was an inland runner and today it was just a tick late behind the northern stream

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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JMA agree's with the NAVGEM/ukmet....

 

Wish we had better UKMET maps.. but that right there.. cold 850s in place before development.. and they look to hold just to the west of Columbia, SC proper during the event.  That would be quite a hit for this area... if there aren't temp issues closer to the surface.. precip not bad at all.

 

I haven't been following this 144 hour very close.. but now it is in a better time-frame... are the NAVGEM/UKMET/JMA kicking the energy faster to cause this?  

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Ugh!  That trough axis looks terrible.  Cold and dry.  Maybe we can score on a clipper with 30:1 ratios!!!

 

Maybe!  I think the probability of that verifying is low anyway.  I'm sure it'll be much less cold by D10, which will allow a nice storm to track south of us, throwing precip back into marginal temps.

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Wish we had better UKMET maps.. but that right there.. cold 850s in place before development.. and they look to hold just to the west of Columbia, SC proper during the event.  That would be quite a hit for this area... if there aren't temp issues closer to the surface.. precip not bad at all.

 

I haven't been following this 144 hour very close.. but now it is in a better time-frame... are the NAVGEM/UKMET/JMA kicking the energy faster to cause this?  

 

That seems like the case to me. Also the uk/jma/navgem seem to keep the 5h low more intact as it trucks east. I would assume this is b/c they are faster and thus give it a little more breathing room between it and the massive trough dropping down from Canada.

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That seems like the case to me. Also the uk/jma/navgem seem to keep the 5h low more intact as it trucks east. I would assume this is b/c they are faster and thus give it a little more breathing room between it and the massive trough dropping down from Canada.

 

Alright, nice.  Seems the 12z EPS doesn't show too big of a signal for the time-frame vs those models for our areas.  There are some members with a low coming off the SC coast, but temps might be the issue.

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IMO, at 132hrs the 18z GFS is about to show a phased monster climbing out of the gulf. The mega trough energy is capturing the leading shortwave....

 

Edit: nvmd, GFS pukes out some kind of weird garbage instead of phasing the two pieces together.

 

Edit again: Winds up millering B'ing the surface low with the lead wave from roughly chattanooga to charleston, similar to the last major winter storm we had.  Major ice storm for NC and probably SC if it verified. 

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Greg Fishel (@gbfishel)

2/1/16, 21:34

Unprecedented cold now required for final 28 days of February just to be able to call Dec-Feb "Normal" for the Raleigh area. Can't see it.

In other news the sky is blue. The December torch really hurts the seasonal average. We essentially need feb to ring in -3C below normal for RDU. Not sure if unprecedented is the word here, but sustained below average cold without warm ups outside of seasonal temps, yes. A few gnarly cold shots and seasonal temps could do it, in theory. Add a storm or two in the mix and it's possible.

9368b9f111c0224431880bd2171d6755.jpg

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