Snow haven Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Been too busy to look at models. So the storm next week is on or off the table? no one knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well, we have the storm. Just need to work on the temps now. Hopefully the ensembles will continue to look better, too. Still a lot of potential showing for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 In Georgia Maybe Waycross not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 the issue is the way the upper level low tracks, its too far inland and so therefore keeps central NC above freezing as it sucks in warm atlantic air... we need to see that move east or else it wont be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 the issue is the way the upper level low tracks, its too far inland and so therefore keeps central NC above freezing as it sucks in warm atlantic air... we need to see that move east or else it wont be cold enough Good thing the storm is next week and not tomorrow. Plenty of time for it to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sounds about right. The Triangle is left out again. We didn't get left out the last two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro has warmer temps over the poles(less zonal winds) and has the MJO moving the quickest.Thus lower heights in the SE. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 We didn't get left out the last two events. Sorry, I should clarify. South and East of the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There are LOTS of waves in the northern branch on the 12z Euro. The trough never went negative until it was almost off shore, even though there was at least one piece phasing in and MANY other pieces behind it. I'd be shocked if today's solution is anywhere close to how it eventually plays out. On a positive note, nice high in the lakes as opposed to a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sorry, I should clarify. South and East of the Triangle. JB's thoughts on the Euro February 18 01:51 PM So I will reserve judgement till later. Looks highly suspect and I dont agree with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EuroWx snow map has 6-9" for GSO, 2-3" for Wake, actually has the 1" down to the sandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Crappy temps and track for Columbia, I'll pass. for those in CAE wondering.. 3/51 00z EPS members had anything appreciable here. it's dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There are LOTS of waves in the northern branch on the 12z Euro. The trough never went negative until it was almost off shore, even though there was at least one piece phasing in and MANY other pieces behind it. I'd be shocked if today's solution is anywhere close to how it eventually plays out. On a positive note, nice high in the lakes as opposed to a low. JB's thoughts on the Euro February 18 01:51 PM So I will reserve judgement till later. Looks highly suspect and I dont agree with it Yeah, I am sure JB (central PA) along with the TN/KY/OH folks are going to toss any model that isn't tracking it up between the apps and 95. Setup favors a cutter, nothing keeping it from cutting except timing. Todays globals (GFC/CMC/Euro) have it tracking along/off the coast, tomorrow they could be tracking up central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 JB's thoughts on the Euro February 18 01:51 PM So I will reserve judgement till later. Looks highly suspect and I dont agree with it He's a NAM hugger since about 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EuroWx snow map has 6-9" for GSO, 2-3" for Wake, actually has the 1" down to the sandhills. That's a start. Plenty of time for the track to be further east and get us colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sorry, I should clarify. South and East of the Triangle. The first event in January gave areas SE of Raleigh a nice ice storm. NE saw a nice sleet storm. The last even gave the Triangle a nice ice event throughout the day Monday. Point is we've done well for the two events that affected the SE. We did miss out on the coastal event, but many did see flurries. So not a great year yet, but there's many others across this board that are in the same boat. For first event: http://www.weather.gov/rah/events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There are LOTS of waves in the northern branch on the 12z Euro. The trough never went negative until it was almost off shore, even though there was at least one piece phasing in and MANY other pieces behind it. I'd be shocked if today's solution is anywhere close to how it eventually plays out. On a positive note, nice high in the lakes as opposed to a low. I agree, too many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EuroWx snow map has 6-9" for GSO, 2-3" for Wake, actually has the 1" down to the sandhills. All-in. Good to see the Euro fantasy snow a few days ago is still showing up in some form or fashion (haven't looked at models since Monday night). The Canadian shows a beast, but it's a little too warm outside the mountains. I notice the NAVGEM has the storm way suppressed. Meanwhile, the UKMET has an Apps Runner... Lots of time left to go. It probably won't work out, but hopefully it does. Looks like a setup that more favors the Apps and into the interior NE at this time, though. I might be moving to a place where it never snows this summer, so I'd like to go out with a bang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There are LOTS of waves in the northern branch on the 12z Euro. The trough never went negative until it was almost off shore, even though there was at least one piece phasing in and MANY other pieces behind it. I'd be shocked if today's solution is anywhere close to how it eventually plays out. On a positive note, nice high in the lakes as opposed to a low. Yeah the lakes should be high pressure dominated in this setup. any model showing a dominant Great Lakes low is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yeah, I am sure JB (central PA) along with the TN/KY/OH folks are going to toss any model that isn't tracking it up between the apps and 95. Setup favors a cutter, nothing keeping it from cutting except timing. Todays globals (GFC/CMC/Euro) have it tracking along/off the coast, tomorrow they could be tracking up central TN. At this range I pretty much toss every solution, but keep an eye on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The blocking developing is interesting, that pig PV over Hudson Bay sure is a thorn though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At this range I pretty much toss every solution, but keep an eye on trends. Well the EPS/Para-EPS have been fairly good at day 5 so tomorrow 12z I would think we would have an idea if this favored apps runner or coastal. I know last week the CMC was the model that everyone was hugging while they spat on the euro/eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well the EPS/Para-EPS have been fairly good at day 5 so tomorrow 12z I would think we would have an idea if this favored apps runner or coastal. I know last week the CMC was the model that everyone was hugging while they spat on the euro/eps.Both the Euro OP and Parallel are over 0.95 right now, Op is actually at 0.966 which is highest it's been since November most likely or even longer. Look at those last 7 days scores, can't beat 0.952 seven day average for verification scores 5 days out. All hail the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That is a huge spread on the low locations on the 12z EPS. At 18z Wednesday, it could be literally from memphis to 100 miles offshore CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That is a huge spread on the low locations on the 12z EPS. At 18z Wednesday, it could be literally from memphis to 100 miles offshore CHS.Was it any colder or can you not tell that on eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm comparing the 12Z run to the 00z run, 500 mb anomalies @00Z the 25th The new run has the trough further south, but the 540 line is further north than the previous run. This one is trying to connect the PV near Hudson Bay with the trough down south, they were totally separate before. The ridge is still offshore in the east, maybe a hair stronger, the ridge out west is still there but slightly weaker. Less ridging over Greenland, it's a little further east now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 All in for next week for Miller A running along the Gulf Coast and the Cold High to the North, just have a good feeling about this guys. Let's bring it on, models are sure close to something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Jason talking rain on 13, wouldn't bet against the snow yet surprised mets aren't talking rain/snow mix instead of just saying rain, this could spell bust for the local mets. EURO showing an awful good track right now and we know its been king lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The 18z GFS must of looked like dog doo doo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The 18z GFS must of looked like dog doo doo. Low stays off the coast, but cold air is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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