DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The op runs don't match the ensembles right now... until they fall more in line... I'm hesitant, been burned too many times this winter. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 FWIW, the 06z GFS has a nice storm track, but no cold air: Seems like the HP is just too far north to bring the cold air in. I just hope that this storm doesn't take a good track, only to be a cold rain. That would be a harsh way to end the season. Also, the GFS has virtually no ULL/trough. Very weird run, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Even though the ensembles are showing a decent track they are still showing mainly rain outside of the mountains. Just not enough cold air for this one showing right now. Maybe that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 can't believe not a little more chatter, we do have a storm possibly a Miller A on the table and with it being February the cold might show up yet, we're still 5 days out so a lot can happen in our favor yet, more models are showing the southern track than the apps cutter. we need WOW to start the MOJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 can't believe not a little more chatter, we do have a storm possibly a Miller A on the table and with it being February the cold might show up yet, we're still 5 days out so a lot can happen in our favor yet, more models are showing the southern track than the apps cutter. we need WOW to start the MOJO.Track and QPF won't mean squat, with no cold air around! That's why there is no cold around, 3"+ of QPF is possible! The backside band will save us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I could be wrong, my memory isn't what it used to be, but didn't we have a miller a type storm a few years ago that showed rain all the way up until about 2 or 3 days before the event. I think Upstate SC ended up with a decent 4-5" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I hope its a dry hot summer after all this rain, the Dan River has been at or above flood stage 4-5 times since December alone. La nina may help, but after next week I fully expect their to be flooding issues, especially near the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Track and QPF won't mean squat, with no cold air around! That's why there is no cold around, 3"+ of QPF is possible! The backside band will save us all! I know it doesn't look good yet but I'm trying to stay positive, we have had these trend in our favor the day before, I hope anyway. Just one good snowstorm and I'm ready for spring. Plus I would like to see cold weather about 2 days after the storm not snow then the next day be 40, back in the 60's and 70's it would stay cold a week after a good snowstorm. What has happened to our winters?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 KGSP going with the 'Superblend' for Next Week: Morning AFD: MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MILLER A TYPE STORM...WITH A PRIMARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND TRACKING NE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EXACT TRACK. IF ANYTHING...THEY HAVE TRENDED MORE INLAND/WEST WITH THE TRACK. THIS PLACES THE CWFA IN WARMER AIR...BUT ALSO STILL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...AND SEVERE TSTMS. AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND FALLING THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NC MTNS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...I WENT WITH SUPERBLEND WHICH DOES TREND TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PLACES HIGHEST POP/QPF ON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 KGSP going with the 'Superblend' for Next Week: Morning AFD: MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MILLER A TYPE STORM...WITH A PRIMARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND TRACKING NE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EXACT TRACK. IF ANYTHING...THEY HAVE TRENDED MORE INLAND/WEST WITH THE TRACK. THIS PLACES THE CWFA IN WARMER AIR...BUT ALSO STILL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...AND SEVERE TSTMS. AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND FALLING THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NC MTNS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...I WENT WITH SUPERBLEND WHICH DOES TREND TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PLACES HIGHEST POP/QPF ON TUESDAY. Yep don't like that last sentence, temps trend slightly warmer, want it to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That lakes low is only there on the OP GFS and does not have ensemble support. That's not going to be why this storm doesn't happen, IMO. High pressure will dominate that area, we just may not have it far enough south to cash in.850 line is track dependent and the the favored track is OTS, not what the GFS shows. Still having big changes with high strength on the Euro through 5 days. This one isn't dead yet...it may be injured, but it's not dead. CAD regions still in game...if some highs can trend a bit stronger and the storm can speed up a tad, Central NC would be in game. I'm not claiming to be optimistic about this storm (if I were to go to Vegas, I'd go all rain), but it's going to change a lot between now and Wednesday. I really think we will have a chance after this one around the end of the month or first few days of March, so not all is lost, yet! Agreed. Hard to imagine with what ensembles are showing that we don't see something by March. Our luck hasn't been the greatest but the dam is going to break one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Almost got a SSW forecasted today,10 and 30mb zonal winds very close to 0 .The AO should respond and start going negative with a PV dropping down. MJO continues to rapidly progress with convection close to the dateline,that will spike the PNA off the west coast. Basically both signals mean lower heights over the SE with cold and storminess possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The ensembles are getting more aggressive with ridging over Greenland. Would think this would serve to move that low over Hudson Bay south but hasn't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 March will come in like a lion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 A battle of the ops versus the ensembles. Hopefully the ensembles will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Everyone's already giving up on next weeks storm? We're still nearly a week away, with the pattern setting up things can and most likely will trend in our way.Yeah, basically! We already have the track showing up on the models ( ensembles) that we need, just need 20 degree cooler temps to magically appear and we are golden! Or we score from the wraparound ! That'll work out well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Everyone's already giving up on next weeks storm? We're still nearly a week away, with the pattern setting up things can and most likely will trend in our way.unless a strong 2nd or 3rd wave develops, it's not really cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS showing Low in the Lakes at 132..not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS showing Low in the Lakes at 132..not good It's hard-coded into the GFS algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well, the rain is a couple of degrees colder on this GFS run in the CAD region. Upper 30's...brrr! There are more signs of colder highs in more favorable positions, but not good enough to do us any good. Good low track, but not strong enough for dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Nothing says strong storm like a big U-shaped trough, like the GFS is showing. It does have a little CAD in place, preceding the system, though, driven by an unremarkable 1028 retreating high in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Compare this GFS run to the last. When you have runs so dissimilar you just have to toss them. No continuity at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 No cold at all, biggest problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I thought the OP GFS was OK. You can see the southern piece out running the piece diving down, banana high trying to hold. Cold Rain's lakes low is in there to get our heart rate up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 And UK comes in with a Ohio Valley runner. Atleast it's amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Compare this GFS run to the last. When you have runs so dissimilar you just have to toss them. No continuity at all.**Preface this to say this post isn't directed to you by any means**Exactly. No need to analyze lows into lakes or temperature issues of OP runs. I realize not everyone who reads or posts understands or even cares about means (or has access to them) but the euro 00z yesterday versus 00z today at 06z 2/24 is drastically different in several areas. 1) cold/high pressure expansion in general is increasing ever so slightly 2) CAD signal (hint, it increased substantially this run, most likely a result of improvement in track over anything else) 3) track mean is now on the GA coast or slightly off. Indicating not an inland but pure Miller A/coastal track. 4) NO Great Lakes low (never was one on the Euro). If one wants to say a 1012mb low sandwiched between two highs will kill our chances with this storm, ok... Side note. Even if you wanted to say analyze a 850mb temperature mean on an ensemble, you have to take into account there are a good amount of Miller B or inland tracks which will skew that mean to the north. Realistically I expect 850's to be better than what's shown on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 And UK comes in with a Ohio Valley runner. Atleast it's amped.front wave is a Rainer. Need to see a 2nd one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 1) cold/high pressure expansion in general is increasing ever so slightly 2) CAD signal (hint, it increased substantially this run, most likely a result of improvement in track over anything else) I'm seeing the same on the new Canadian. Let's see if all of the 12z models show the same and increases on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 **Preface this to say this post isn't directed to you by any means** Exactly. No need to analyze lows into lakes or temperature issues of OP runs. I realize not everyone who reads or posts understands or even cares about means (or has access to them) but the euro 00z yesterday versus 00z today at 06z 2/24 is drastically different in several areas. 1) cold/high pressure expansion in general is increasing ever so slightly 2) CAD signal (hint, it increased substantially this run, most likely a result of improvement in track over anything else) 3) track mean is now on the GA coast or slightly off. Indicating not an inland but pure Miller A/coastal track. 4) NO Great Lakes low (never was one on the Euro) Side note. Even if you wanted to say analyze a 850mb temperature mean on an ensemble, you have to take into account there are a good amount of Miller B or inland tracks which will skew that mean to the north. Realistically I expect 850's to be better than what's shown on the mean. Exactly Jon. And I should have also said "the GFS op run", amazing the difference between the current run and the previous. The Euro ensembles have been more steady, but even their ops don't match the ensemble so it doesn't leave too much to believe in right now. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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