mrdaddyman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Fishel showed temperatures early next week. Coldest was wednesday at 45... didn't mention storm. He's a smart man. I agree with your previous forecast for the triangle btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 18z Navgem says what storm? Great sign !! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Great sign !! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk so happy there is a Birmingham poster (native Birminghamian here) - please keep posting - thanks for your insights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 18z GFS has a similar track as the 12z and is really warm; however, the 18z GEFS made a big shift south/east The new GEFS is aligned well with the EPS and canadian ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Check out Larry Cosgrove's take on storm. url=""]https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156642120575235&id=615925234&__tn__=C[/url] Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not quite there yet, but the trends today have been positive, especially with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 18z GFS has a similar track as the 12z and is really warm; however, the 18z GEFS made a big shift south/east The new GEFS is aligned well with the EPS and canadian ensembles. Thanks. Was wondering that. Much appreciated. This thing might have legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 18z GFS has a similar track as the 12z and is really warm; however, the 18z GEFS made a big shift south/east The new GEFS is aligned well with the EPS and canadian ensembles. Nice. Having all 3 of those ensembles showing a coastal solution is a great positive sign at this long lead I think. But the big 3 posting index of Wow, Burger, and Grit are nonexistent therefore this storm I'm afraid is doomed to fail....the WBG index is extremely negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 VALID 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A QUASI-ZONAL...LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN ON DAY 4/SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY5/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS DAY 5/SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH DAY 7/TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTENSIFIES...AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD COASTAL SC/NC. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONGST VARIOUS MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN SURFACE LOW STRENGTH AND LOCATION IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...TRENDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN COMING DAYS. ..LEITMAN.. 02/17/2016 Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 5h5 hours ago Take it to the bank! #snOMG 1 retweet5 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like 5 More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 5h5 hours ago Take it to the bank! #snOMG 1 retweet5 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like 5 More That's about right. Don't believe me? Read my signature from isohume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 5h5 hours ago Take it to the bank! #snOMG 1 retweet5 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like 5 More Sorry pbjr, just missed the cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 0z GFS is a steamy apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 0z GFS is a steamy apps runner As long as that lakes low is there we can forget about a snow storm. Maybe some mixed trash, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 0z GFS is a steamy apps runner still a lot of energy dropping down the backside of the trough. I'm still convinced this is a two wave event. The first is rain and 2nd one is the one that can deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 5h5 hours ago Take it to the bank! #snOMG 1 retweet5 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like 5 More Love the disclaimer at the bottom! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 still a lot of energy dropping down the backside of the trough. I'm still convinced this is a two wave event. The first is rain and 2nd one is the one that can deliver. Agreed , the euro sniffed out this possible two wave event Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Dang that's a lot of juice coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro keeps the snow in VA and parts of TN. Similar to GFS. Big takeaway is the 850 0C line is way north. I doubt that changes much between now and Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 man we just can't get a break with a good miller A system and the cold air firmly entrenched ahead of it. tons of rain and warm then we'll have clear and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 As long as that lakes low is there we can forget about a snow storm. Maybe some mixed trash, but that's it.That lakes low is only there on the OP GFS and does not have ensemble support. That's not going to be why this storm doesn't happen, IMO. High pressure will dominate that area, we just may not have it far enough south to cash in.Euro keeps the snow in VA and parts of TN. Similar to GFS. Big takeaway is the 850 0C line is way north. I doubt that changes much between now and Tuesday/Wednesday next week.850 line is track dependent and the the favored track is OTS, not what the GFS shows. Still having big changes with high strength on the Euro through 5 days. This one isn't dead yet...it may be injured, but it's not dead. CAD regions still in game...if some highs can trend a bit stronger and the storm can speed up a tad, Central NC would be in game. I'm not claiming to be optimistic about this storm (if I were to go to Vegas, I'd go all rain), but it's going to change a lot between now and Wednesday.I really think we will have a chance after this one around the end of the month or first few days of March, so not all is lost, yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Poor guy on TWC just showed the Euro, then mentioned the ensembles take a track NW of the op, 95% of the time!? So the gist , we are already out of the snow now, so the NW trend would fully put everyone out, except maybe the mountains! Good to be out 5 days from the event, no lost sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Poor guy on TWC just showed the Euro, then mentioned the ensembles take a track NW of the op, 95% of the time!? So the gist , we are already out of the snow now, so the NW trend would fully put everyone out, except maybe the mountains! Good to be out 5 days from the event, no lost sleep! Ensembles take a track NW of the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ensembles take a track NW of the op?That's what he said this morning. Think it was Greg Postel? Showed the track of the Euro op, showed some various shaded areas of the ensemble tracks and said the track would be NW of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That's what he said this morning. Think it was Greg Postel? Showed the track of the Euro op, showed some various shaded areas of the ensemble tracks and said the track would be NW of the opThat's not true at all. ECMWF Ensemble mean had the low in the gulf at 144, and off Cape Hatteras at 168. For that matter, the GFS Ensembles and GGEM ensembles all have a very similar track (the GFS is a tad west and the GGEM a tad east). IMO, this is very impressive to see such good consensus among ensemble members even when the operational models are so different, and makes me suspicious of the operationals being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I can't show WeatherBell maps but the EPS mean takes the surface low across the northern Gulf across the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Georgia then northeast over the Carolina Coast. However, spread is all over the place so I would take that mean with a huge grain of salt. Probably a lot of Apps and inland runners and Miller Bs in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean had the center of the surface low right over Savannah and more clustered at that location than than previous runs. Almost a perfect track. I'd show you the low pressure locations of the ensemble members but I can't here. Go here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean had the center of the surface low right over Savannah and more clustered at that location than than previous runs. Almost a perfect track. I'd show you the low pressure locations of the ensemble members but I can't here. Go hereDo temps look borderline, and we are just going by the perfect track ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Temps still borderline. 850's are -3 to -4 over Georgia the whole time, but the surface is still too warm right now. One reason I'm borderline on being excited, if more cold air was showing up, at least for me, it would be a whole different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 If the track continues to move east/se, then the cold air will be there... I think the strength and placement of the high is also going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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