burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There are some big dogs mixed in the EPS runs. One of them has a 972mb low pressure sitting over Charlotte. FYI, the last 3 runs of the EPS has increased the mean snowfall total for SC/NC. It's still pretty low, but the 2 inch line has made over to Greensboro Now. All of the NC mountains are now over 2 inches. Lots of members with deepening low pressure's moving parallel to but just off the Carolina coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There are some big dogs mixed in the EPS runs. One of them has a 972mb low pressure sitting over Charlotte. FYI, the last 3 runs of the EPS has increased the mean snowfall total for SC/NC. It's still pretty low, but the 2 inch line has made over to Greensboro Now. All of the NC mountains are now over 2 inches. the control has a 986 just northeast of Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Canadian ensemble mean is close to the EPS, but a little further off the coast. It takes the low pressure across florida and up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Better ukie map I don't think it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Weather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z eps mean is close the 12z euro op. This is such nonsense .. the mean shows a track going too southern SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'll go ahead and give you the tried and true NC forecast. Roxboro will get snow. The line will be right at Wake County. The end. And I'm basing this off the latest model runs and climate data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This is such nonsense .. the mean shows a track going too southern SC! Nonsense? The low at hr 174 on the mean is in almost the exact location as hr 168 on the op. Is it exact in the way it gets there? No...but it is close. In my post I said it was close to the op. I didn't say it was exactly like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks like more off and just off the coast, than apps runners, so I guess that's a positive ! Temps as normal, a little sketchy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Bummer, classic cold chasing moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Better ukie map I don't think it cuts. f144.gif Looks like it would miller B Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 My local news just showed a high of 67 on Wednesday !? Now that just screams winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 NWS and WPC already talking and showing this storm next week, talking how it has big potential for snowstorm next week around the southeast, have to see what some of our experts on here are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Bummer, classic cold chasing moisture! No, not at all. That's a mean. It's the average storm placement. The average storm strength. The average 850 temp.You would expect there to be some colder, snowier solutions as well as some warmer, rainier solutions with a mean like that. It's a decent ensemble run, and the main points to take away are that there is a good signal for a storm and at least marginal cold air is nearby. Not sure we can ask for a lot more from a 7+ day ensemble mean, even though I still feel that many of us will be too warm for snow, when D0 arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 wx south Robert is honking his horn for next week, boys this could be the one. Just watched Chris Simmons, his a Met. said the GFS today took a huge step toward the Euro Model which is showing a nice Miller A next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z euro para further SE than the euro OP and slower Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 My local news just showed a high of 67 on Wednesday !? Now that just screams winter storm!zFine by me. I want 70 and sunny. I am sick of this stupid Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gsp disco As the Ohio Valley surface low pushes east into New England...the front stretched between the two surface systems will elongate over our area as high pressure across the northern tier crosses the Appalachians and dams down the eastern Seaboard in a diabatically enhanced classical cad event. Classical damming with precipitation at onset tends to be associated with some of the more significant impacts and this one is no different...but luckily surface temperatures remain above freezing at onset...leading just to a cold rain on Tuesday. The southern surface low strengthens and pushes into the deep south early Tuesday...moving into Georgia late Tuesday and eroding the damming as it pushes east. The parent trough behind the surface low amplifies significantly at this time...lofting moisture and precipitation northeast up the eastern Seaboard. The operational GFS cuts off a middle-level low where as the European model (ecmwf) keeps it an open...albeit sharp...trough. Both the operational GFS and ecwmf develop a Miller "a" type low but the European model (ecmwf) is quite a bit faster /off the NC coast by 18z Wednesday...whereas the GFS has the surface low center in Greenwood County SC/. Tried to take a blend to reflect the ensemble means but as this system passes we have a few different sensible weather impacts to deal with. Ahead of the surface low...with the low-level warm air advection...digging upper trough and deep-layer shear...convective available potential energy should increase across the southeast. The GFS keeps convective available potential energy less than 500 j/kg but still enough to warrant thunder wording both Sunday and Monday afternoons as the initial front stretches across the Piedmont before the damming develops in earnest...and again Wednesday afternoon as the surface low crosses the area. Now this is based more heavily on the GFS timing so likely this will change but the idea should remain about the same unless the surface low track changes significantly and remains well to the south. Behind the surface low and initially just across the mountains but spreading across the area Wednesday night as the cold air filters in...we will have the chance for rain changing to snow. With a Miller "a" system freezing precipitation is less of a concern. Will gain more confidence on this as we work forward in time with subsequent forecasts. And of course as with any event lately...quantitative precipitation forecast is a concern...with current qpfs for days 6-7 with widespread 2-2.5 inches across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro para has a 994mb low sitting over mobile, AL at 162 hrs. Not often you a sub 1000 mb low in the gulf during the winter. Verbatim, it's on the warm side, but still manages to drop a few inches of snow over N. Ga and upstate SC. If surface temps were a couple degree's colder I think it would be showing foot plus totals over these area's. Based of the precip map, It appears the surface low is being captured and stacking with a 5h low over extreme southern Alabama at hr 168. That is when the surface low reaches max intensity and it stalls there for 6 hours before sliding east and then northeast just off the coast. During that time it dumps 2plus inches of liquid over central, Alabama. Verbatim it's showing it being too warm at the surface for snow there, but if surface temps crashed like you'd expect birmingham would be looking at a foot or more of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro para has a 994mb low sitting over mobile, AL at 162 hrs. Not often you a sub 1000 mb low in the gulf during the winter. Verbatim, it's on the warm side, but still manages to drop a few inches of snow over N. Ga and upstate SC. If surface temps were a couple degree's colder I think it would be showing foot plus totals over these area's. Do you have a map pic? Estimate upstate sc based on what your looking at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z euro para further SE than the euro OP and slower Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk it's on the 2 wave idea. Its ensembles have shown this and the Gfs para, that solution would work best for us. First wave rides the boundary then the 2nd phases and is the main show. Check out the 12z Gfs para by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Do you have a map pic? Estimate upstate sc based on what your looking at... Verbatim, the upstate starts off around 38 degree's Wednesday morning with the heavy back side precip shield to our west. Temps slowing but steadily drop to freezing by 1am Thursday morning. The heaviest precip moves in wednesday afternoon, and we get an 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid late wednesday night/early thursday morning from wrap-around. Also, there's a decent wedge signature on Wednesday, which is why our temperatures drop throughout the day. If that was a little stronger we would be getting absolutely plastered on the para euro. So theres your over-analyzitation of the 12 para Euro that's sure to change tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z euro para further SE than the euro OP and slower Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk True. But the 12Z run shows a lot less snow for the Eastern half of NC than the 00Z run. Not enough cold air. Same thing with the GFS Parallel. Decent track but the cold air is just not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Fishel showed temperatures early next week. Coldest was wednesday at 45... didn't mention storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Fishel showed temperatures early next week. Coldest was wednesday at 45... didn't mention storm. We do this everytime! It gets old! It's gonna be 70 on Sat and Sun, nobody in the general public, is looking beyond that, and the " storm" is 7 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 True. But the 12Z run shows a lot less snow for the Eastern half of NC than the 00Z run. Not enough cold air. Same thing with the GFS Parallel. Decent track but the cold air is just not there. Have to have a further SE track regardless of what temps show right now to even have a shot . If the track is like the euro op this discussion is pointless Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 it's on the 2 wave idea. Its ensembles have shown this and the Gfs para, that solution would work best for us. First wave rides the boundary then the 2nd phases and is the main show. Check out the 12z Gfs para by the way. That's interesting . Just saw the GFS para . Yeah that would work best for many for sure Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 18z Navgem says what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Fishel showed temperatures early next week. Coldest was wednesday at 45... didn't mention storm. . I used to be a Fish fan. But his mid/long range reliance on climo more than offsets his proficiency on the short range. I think his buy in on the GW stuff has made his mid/long term even worse. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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