February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[SN_Lover]

More WPC   maps:

 

[NCSNOW]

Yep, it's a big hit from GSO to RDU. About 4-6 but if the setup was as the PARA shows it would be a good bit more. Takes the perfect track for RDU and eastern NC. 

Thanks: Glad youll be in the neighborhood and have a higher level of interest to track this one.

 

The big thing to watch on the map I posted is the fact it is weighted more east off the coast as oppossed to inland tracks. Thats whats getting me excited. The euro op waffles and wiggles from run to run as is expected this far out, 50-100 miles eitheir way will make a huge difference for anyone in ENC back to East TN.

[burrel2]

The Canadian and Euro ensemble means are almost a carbon copy of each with with a decent high pressure to north and a nice Miller A coming out of the gulf and tracking just off the east coast.

 

I definitely like the odds for this one to take a Miller A track, the question will be cold air which looks marginal. It will need to take a perfect track and will have to be strengthening as it lifts north otherwise there won't be enough cold air on the back side it seems.

 

We also really need the clipper type system out ahead of it to strengthen as it moves into the atlantic and hopefully drag down the cold front so that it stalls to our south. It'll be hard for cold air to arrive in time on the backside of this storm if we start out in the 50/60's because the initial cold front never made it south of us.

[nchighcountrywx]

Overnight KGSP AFD

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW STARTS OUT QUASI-ZONAL AND 
CONSOLIDATED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT 
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP STALL OUT A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SO CONFIDENCE IS 
GROWING THAT WE ARE IN FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF 
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE QUESTIONS ARE STILL IN THE DETAILS...AS THE 
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE THE USUAL DIFFICULTY WITH SPLIT FLOW.

THE 00Z GFS NEVER COMPLETELY PHASES THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN 
STREAMS...AS THEY BOTH DIG DEEP TROUGHS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THEN 
LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. 
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECWMF HAS COME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 
PREVIOUS RUN...PHASING THE ENERGY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...THEN 
CLOSING OFF A HUGE VORTEX OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 
LOW THEN SLOWLY WOBBLES NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. I OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS 
MOSTLY AN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF 
WITH A PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THE 00Z GEFS IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN A GULF LOW DEVELOPING ON 
TUESDAY. THE GFS THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW IN THE NC MTNS. 
THE PIEDMONT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...UNLESS A STRONGER "MILLER TYPE 
A" STORM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE COAST...SIMILAR TO WHAT 
THE 12Z ECMWF HAD. 

SO FOR THIS FCST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STILL LOOK RELATIVELY DRY 
WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S EAST OF THE MTNS. FROM SUNDAY 
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...POPS RAMP UP TO HIGH-END CHANCE TO 
LOW-END LIKELY...AGAIN MOSTLY RAIN. AS COOL AIR STARTS TO WORK 
IN...HAVE SNOW LEVELS FALLING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE 
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ABOVE 3500 FT. I 
BLENDED IN SOME CONSRAW TEMPS FOR TUESDAY TO TREND LOWER ON MAX 
TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

[msuwx]

Yep, it's a big hit from GSO to RDU. About 4-6 but if the setup was as the PARA shows it would be a good bit more. Takes the perfect track for RDU and eastern NC. 

 

Yeah, puts down 7" for KCLT, around 15" for RDU. Obviously, it's all about when and how that UL energy phases. Interestingly, 0z Para Euro very similar to 0z EPS control. 

[lilj4425]

Depends on where you live A solid 6-10" from Nashville TN to mountains, 6-12" in mountains and locally higher 18 and 20" blips, 1-2" for Atlanta, Ga and up to 7" for NW GA with a nice 3" for Birmingham, AL and up to 8" for the northern areas of the state. A few inches in the immediate Piedmont region of NC. WV jackpots and Northern VA with 18-22" amounts.

I love how you left out the upstate area. Cute.

[SnowNiner]

We've got all the ingredients it seems but just doesn't seem cold enough.  Decent highs to the north/west, storm off the coast, but meh.  Probably rain.  Why couldn't we have this set up last week.... ?? Still time I guess, but this thing needs a bit of work to get clt involved. Again, I'd feel pretty good if in the mountains.   

 

[BullCityWx]

Seems like there was limited support on the euro ensembles for any snow sort of solution.

[DaculaWeather]

If we can get the track, I think the cold will be there. The Euro ensembles had well below normal 850's over the southeast that period, and if nothing else, the low as depicted right now, has major wrap around moisture. The ensembles have a great track, just need for the operational to drop a little further south like it did on this last run. I think that without question,this is the best look we've had all winter long, and whether we get it or not, it's the hand we're dealt. I'm a little stoked about this one at the moment though. We'll see where the trends take it.

[No snow for you]

I love how you left out the upstate area. Cute.

because we are left out of the party. 1-2 inches for KGSP from what I can tell. 

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah, puts down 7" for KCLT, around 15" for RDU. Obviously, it's all about when and how that UL energy phases. Interestingly, 0z Para Euro very similar to 0z EPS control.

do you have access to para vort maps? I only have 5h anomaly maps and it looks like the para misses the phase. Its also much slower bringing the southern wave up compared to the other ops. It looks like the northern stream wave comes through then the southern wave lifts out of the gulf after the cold air settles in.

[DaculaWeather]

Euro ensembles showing -10-15C 850's over much of the SE during the storm

[fountainguy97]

do you have access to para vort maps? I only have 5h anomaly maps and it looks like the para misses the phase. Its also much slower bringing the southern wave up compared to the other ops. It looks like the northern stream wave comes through then the southern wave lifts out of the gulf after the cold air settles in.

It's rly strung out. The control euro is similar and the storm is like 3 days long lol

[mackerel_sky]

because we are left out of the party. 1-2 inches for KGSP from what I can tell.

GSP says cold rain outside the mountains, but they are watching it!

[SnowNiner]

do you have access to para vort maps? I only have 5h anomaly maps and it looks like the para misses the phase. Its also much slower bringing the southern wave up compared to the other ops. It looks like the northern stream wave comes through then the southern wave lifts out of the gulf after the cold air settles in.

 

Well that would be great! Considering the last event really slowed down (to our detriment), it would actually be great if this southern wave slowed down and let the high move into a better position I think.

[Tacoma]

do you have access to para vort maps? I only have 5h anomaly maps and it looks like the para misses the phase. Its also much slower bringing the southern wave up compared to the other ops. It looks like the northern stream wave comes through then the southern wave lifts out of the gulf after the cold air settles in.

cold air settling in before the storm,  sounds like what we want for a change.  GSP already honking horn about winter storm criteria snows next tuesday night and wednesday for at least 3500 feet.  I bet it will drop down to the valley floors with no problem with this kind of setup.  just hope the cold air comes first and stays during the storm and a couple of days after the storm.

[mackerel_sky]

Euro ensembles showing -10-15C 850's over much of the SE during the storm

But how's surface temps? Mid-upper 30s?

[Tacoma]

It's rly strung out. The control euro is similar and the storm is like 3 days long lol

I wish it would last for 3 days of solid snow.

[DaculaWeather]

But how's surface temps? Mid-upper 30s?

I think the operational will trend colder as we get closer. I really want to see this track near the GOM coast before I get really excited. I believe if we get that track, the cold will be there. 

And actually for Georgia, the cold is there, both at the surface and at 850 @192 and beyond, and that's when the Euro is throwing a lot of moisture back on wrap around. Of course this is all way out at this point, but it's tough to not be happy about the best looking setup all winter. :-)

[Stormcatt]

do you have access to para vort maps? I only have 5h anomaly maps and it looks like the para misses the phase. Its also much slower bringing the southern wave up compared to the other ops. It looks like the northern stream wave comes through then the southern wave lifts out of the gulf after the cold air settles in.

The one trend on the eps is the number of members cutting off the base of the trough heck even the GFS is doing now.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Brick Tamland]

Euro ensemble mean has a nice Miller A track instead of an inland runner like the previous run. Euro control crushes RDU and central NC.

 

 

Good to see the threat is still alive on the Euro. It's staying consistent. I don't think the Euro does well with CAD and wedge situations, but handles big dogs like a Miller A better.

[Brick Tamland]

RAH

HOW STRONG OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL

REACH DOWN INTO NC/SC NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF THE STRONG POLAR HIGH PRESSURE

THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

THEN POSSIBLY NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK? IF THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD DOWN

THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IN THE LATE JANUARY AND RECENT FEBRUARY STORMS... THEN

OUR CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER WILL INCREASE (IF THE PATTERN TURNS

WET COURTESY OF ONE OR TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE - POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER COASTAL

STORM) AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

 

RAH already talking about it. Elizabeth Gardner even mentioned the possibility of a winter storm this morning. Unusual for them to mention it so far out.

[Jon]

A few observations....

 

1) The high placement was wrong with the last storm for several days and was making drastic changes 2 days out within 24 hours of GFS runs. So if you're taking a model run verbatim and saying "it's not cold enough", you should just sit back and relax. We had winter wx with in-situ CAD with a high retreating over the ATLANTIC for god sakes. This is a great setup so far for the SE. We don't need opressive 850's to get a good snowstorm, most of the time that's not the case.

 

2) Cycle through 12z 2/24 between the 12z euro yesterday and 00z today. Or better yet cycle through the last 3 runs of the EPS mean at that time. What you'll see is a very uncertain track and high placement that isn't nailed down at all. Low locations are scattered so much you can hardly trust mean MSLP locatons. Very few things are certain at this point, anyone saying more than "Wintry precip will fall on the eastern half of the US" during this time period is guessing.

 

3) 06z GFS was very close but was track dependent. have that low bombng out off the coast instead of 984mb low over CAE, and we'll be in business.

 

4) GEFS and EPS are advertising a cold and possble blocking look n the 10-15 day time frame. Those who want to lay down pre-emergent as they say will have to wait. Game on for late Feb and early March.

[Tacoma]

RAH already talking about it. Elizabeth Gardner even mentioned the possibility of a winter storm this morning. Unusual for them to mention it so far out.

GSP honking about next week, hope all the honking doesn't jinx us.  

 

the way they put it was winter storm warning criteria snow for next week

[lilj4425]

GSP says cold rain outside the mountains, but they are watching it!

So Charlotte gets seven inches and we get nothing but rain? I don't believe that.

[burrel2]

So Charlotte gets seven inches and we get nothing but rain? I don't believe that.

How long have you lived here? That scenario has happened quite often over the last 30 years. Hopefully we'll have better luck this time though...

[SnowNiner]

So Charlotte gets seven inches and we get nothing but rain? I don't believe that.

 

Lol, no I seriously doubt that too.  GSP is not honking anything of the sort.  I see lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s in my forecast for the time period in question.  I'm pretty pessimistic about this one right now. 

 

I OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS

MOSTLY AN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF

WITH A PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE 00Z GEFS IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN A GULF LOW DEVELOPING ON

TUESDAY. THE GFS THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW IN THE NC MTNS.

THE PIEDMONT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...UNLESS A STRONGER "MILLER TYPE

A" STORM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE COAST...SIMILAR TO WHAT

THE 12Z ECMWF HAD.

[No snow for you]

So Charlotte gets seven inches and we get nothing but rain? I don't believe that.

You are not allowed to start the thread. Only Wow has those honors now. 

[Cold Rain]

A few observations....

 

1) The high placement was wrong with the last storm for several days and was making drastic changes 2 days out within 24 hours of GFS runs. So if you're taking a model run verbatim and saying "it's not cold enough", you should just sit back and relax. We had winter wx with in-situ CAD with a high retreating over the ATLANTIC for god sakes. This is a great setup so far for the SE. We don't need opressive 850's to get a good snowstorm, most of the time that's not the case.

 

2) Cycle through 12z 2/24 between the 12z euro yesterday and 00z today. Or better yet cycle through the last 3 runs of the EPS mean at that time. What you'll see is a very uncertain track and high placement that isn't nailed down at all. Low locations are scattered so much you can hardly trust mean MSLP locatons. Very few things are certain at this point, anyone saying more than "Wintry precip will fall on the eastern half of the US" during this time period is guessing.

 

3) 06z GFS was very close but was track dependent. have that low bombng out off the coast instead of 984mb low over CAE, and we'll be in business.

 

4) GEFS and EPS are advertising a cold and possble blocking look n the 10-15 day time frame. Those who want to lay down pre-emergent as they say will have to wait. Game on for late Feb and early March.

 

Good post, Jon, especially the bolded.  The only issue with it is that NCrain has already bought up all of the pre-emergent, so the stores are going to have to restock anyway!  JK, Pack.

 

I am skeptical of a SE track right now.  How many times through the years to we have to watch the Euro show us nice, beautiful, perfect tracks 7 days out only to correct them northwest?  Without blocking, it's going to be hard for me to give this a lot of weight...YET.  That said, it is most definitely worth watching and may very well work out for some (or a lot) of the SE.  As you said, nothing is even close to being set in stone yet.

[WeatherNC]

Temps are a function of track, a track like the 0z Euro from the FL panhandle through Coastal NC is not good for anyone outside of western NC, eastern TN. Shift it offshore or along the immediate coast and more areas like western SC, NE GA, and central NC come in to play as upper level heights look sufficiently low enough on the western flank for a cold core conveyor.