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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Can you snipe hunt and unicorn hunt at the same time? Anywho, the frigid outbreak tha the GFS is showing , has about a 10% chance of happening, and should be showing up less and less intense as we get closer, IMO! When that blockbuster storm materializes on the 10th or 11th time frame, and gives TN and KY a foot of snow, and runs up the apps, I will be happy for them! I was hoping the bitter air was coming, to atleast kill the bugs, but we can't even get cold right! :(

 

I'm a little skeptical on that degree of cold too.  I like that all of the models are showing it, but I am not sold that it will be pipe bursting cold....yet.

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Not making a call here, but the one thing I would say about the MJO is that there have been several times in years past that the MJO would head into favorable territory, but a favorable pattern would not develop. Let me clarify that by a favorable patter, I do not mean a historic storm. To me, a favorable pattern means cold air present and opportunities for winter weather. With that said, I do think the MJO can be trumped by other factors. I believe that has happened to us in the past. Hopefully, that happens in Feb. to give us a good pattern despite an unfavorable MJO. It could be that we get this huge storm thru the MW and GL the next couple days and we get more clarity about weather beyond this week. 

 

Yeah, that's true.  I hope it's not a major influencer this time, but I would feel much better if the remaining best part of winter saw it in a better phase.  At the very least, it will be competing against more favorable variables.

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With this look and cold press, how do we get a runner? Is the trough too far west, on the west coast?

 

Mack, that's a monthly average.  That's like saying, "My average salary for the month is $200.  I get paid a different amount every week.  How could I be at $0 at any point during the month?"

 

We could have a cold month and still have 10 cutters.

 

Well, probably not 10, but it's still possible to be cold and have a storm or two track west.

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Can you snipe hunt and unicorn hunt at the same time? Anywho, the frigid outbreak tha the GFS is showing , has about a 10% chance of happening, and should be showing up less and less intense as we get closer, IMO! When that blockbuster storm materializes on the 10th or 11th time frame, and gives TN and KY a foot of snow, and runs up the apps, I will be happy for them! I was hoping the bitter air was coming, to atleast kill the bugs, but we can't even get cold right! :(

 

Well if it does materialize it will probably shove every bit of precip that even has a chance of falling to Cuba so it might be a good thing if it doesn't get that cold.

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12z GFS is close to showing an ice storm at hour 162. There's a decent high pressure wedged between two lows to our north.  If that high was a little stronger/further south I think you'd be looking at an ice storm. 

 

There seems to be some potential here anyways. I think we need the southern piece of energy to be faster/stronger and the trailing northern energy to be weaker and slower.

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12z GFS is close to showing an ice storm at hour 162. There's a decent high pressure wedged between two lows to our north.  If that high was a little stronger/further south I think you'd be looking at an ice storm. 

 

There seems to be some potential here anyways. I think we need the southern piece of energy to be faster/stronger and the trailing northern energy to be weaker and slower.

That's close to a nice snowstorm if you move some pieces around. Decent hit for SW VA, etc. as is.

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Been awhile since I have seen a PNA spike like the GFS is showing, extremely impressive. A few days ago we were talking about the ridge axis being too far east, now it looks too far west. The one thing that is hurting with this setup is the lack of neg NAO, prevents the motherload which is north of the Hudson Bay from dropping in to the long wave, and also makes any 50/50 transient in nature. Still a lot of time, I do think we see a storm in the 2/10-2/11 period but it may get going too late for us in the SE.

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Looks like a track similar to the DGEX.

 

Yep,

 

The difference is the Navgem is 6 to 12 hours faster and thus colder both at the surface and at 850mb. 

 

The key is for this wave to get kicked east relatively quickly. Last nights Euro and today's Canadian lag it back in Texas for a while and by the time it comes east we have warmed too much for snow.

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12z GFS looks close for something at day 7. We need to see more of a wedge to hold in the cold/dry air (..as other have stated). This is possible. We saw the CAD show up better as we got closer with the last storm.

Problem is there's a northern stream system fast on its heels kicking the high out of position.

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The D7 storm on the 12z GGEM ran inland, but not to be denied a lot of us score a nice hit on D9-10! :lmao:

Set the table, appetizer, SSW, no 50/50 low, no -NAO, too cold, apps runner, supressed , pick your poison, it's all on the table, after the Superbowl ! Let's see if we can score a win, just like the Panthers!
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Problem is there's a northern stream system fast on its heels kicking the high out of position.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the last storm had a similar look in the early tracking days. Definitely not expecting this to occur, but I think it's in the realm of possibilities. 

 

But we would need to see this change soon; or at least a trend towards a stronger placed high.   

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the last storm had a similar look in the early tracking days. Definitely not expecting this to occur, but I think it's in the realm of possibilities. 

 

But we would need to see this change soon; or at least a trend towards a stronger placed high.   

 

February 2014 had a HP sliding out, as did March 2014.  In-situ CAD is a powerful thing (not saying that applies here).

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