mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro drops 4" for the GSO area and 8-12" in the mountains and Piedmont region for the February 23-24th system. Raleigh and east are a cold rain, maybe a trace dusting at RDU but that's it.[/quote Only 7-8 days to go! King Euro leading the way! We get our best snows , when there was a heatwave before the event! ☔☔☔☔] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro drops 4" for the GSO area and 8-12" in the mountains and Piedmont region for the February 23-24th system. Raleigh and east are a cold rain, maybe a trace dusting at RDU but that's it. Just looking at it. About as good as we can ask for at this point. Miller A with nice track and 1039 high north of Great Lakes. A lot of high pressure up north vs moving out in the Atlantic, which seems to be our problem the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just looking at it. About as good as we can ask for at this point. Miller A with nice track and 1039 high north of Great Lakes. A lot of high pressure up north vs moving out in the Atlantic, which seems to be our problem the last few years. I fully expect within a few days that HP will be modeled out in the Atlantic and replaced with a Great Lakes Low, it's been the trend all year to lose the Hp or move it out quickly and replace it with a GLL. I could easily see that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro drops 4" for the GSO area and 8-12" in the mountains and Piedmont region for the February 23-24th system. Raleigh and east are a cold rain, maybe a trace dusting at RDU but that's it. Big change from the 0z run for central NC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Big change from the 0z run for central NC, right? It'll change a lot the next 7 to 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Use the euro ensembles, the mean and let it guide you at this range, Op is being fairly consistent but its value increases as you get to and under 120. The ensembles next couple of days are what you need to study run to run and the bigest thing your looking for is consistency out of them. Check the individual members and make sure one or twot dont screw with the mean. Also on the ops you should be looking at 5h maps more than surface. The clowns and surface reflections will bounce around from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Use the euro ensembles, the mean and let it guide you at this range, Op is being fairly consistent but its value increases as you get to and under 120. The ensembles next couple of days are what you need to study run to run and the bigest thing your looking for is consistency out of them. Check the individual members and make sure one or twot dont screw with the mean. Also on the ops you should be looking at 5h maps more than surface. The clowns and surface reflections will bounce around from run to run. This time frame has been showing up on the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles at 5h for several days. Looks like a legitimate threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I know that this is not mid or long range..... but since there is not a thread for tonight's system, I will just say that it could get interesting if that low digs a little more tonight. I could see a quick 2-4 for some mountain locals and I would not be surprised to see some flakes in the air out over the piedmont before it comes to an end. Advisories and warnings already going up in mountains. Latest RAP has some light accumulations streaking out on NC/VA border. Probably too warm, but wouldn't take much to get a few flakes east of mountains in northern foothills and piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z CMC backed off next week. Says congrats northern PA/ New York. All rain everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z Euro ensembles and control have the Miller A threat day 7 and 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Japan model also warmer compared to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z Euro ensembles and control have the Miller A threat day 7 and 8. The eps is much fast with the high moving in vs the OP . Nice increase in number of members showing snow for pasta of the southeast Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Esp mean is amped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Japan model also warmer compared to last run. JMA come around to JB way of thinking, LOL guess it is warmer with LP up in Ohio. Very encouraged to see Eps in euro op corner. See in the morning if the eps keeps it up at 0z tonight while we are catching z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z CMC backed off next week. Says congrats northern PA/ New York. All rain everywhere. Pick the rainy models , seen your kind befor !Why not show EPS and Para!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EPS looks Miller A rainy....Need everything south...the high up north and the low down below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Latest from RAH UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PERHAPSBEYOND AS PACIFIC ENERGY DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. A LAGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPSINTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS INTERACTWITH A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTAND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS. NOT SURPRISINGLY AT THISFORECAST LENGTH GUIDANCE IS VARIED BUT ENSEMBLES GENERALLYSUGGEST AN EASTWARD OR COASTAL STORM PATH. WILL INCLUDE A LONGERPERIOD OF CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF LIQUID FORM FORNOW. THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR IS QUESTIONABLE FOR THIS STORMBUT THE STORM TRACK AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS APATTERN THAT BEARS WATCHING. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Kinda have a good feeling about next week. EPS and several GEFS members show a low to our south and even more exciting a strong high to our north XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This next threat will save our winter! We get all our big snows after a minor to moderate ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Pick the rainy models , seen your kind befor ! Why not show EPS and Para!?? Please tell me you just didn't call the CMC a rainy model lol. I gave it a brief mention because I was surprised it wasn't trying to kill us this run and finally dropped the EURO idea. It is usually last to switch when it ends up wrong. I just don't think the storm and cold will sync for this one particular storm. I'm adamant for winter weather and leaned heavy on the non-rainy models for the last two major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Latest from RAH UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND AS PACIFIC ENERGY DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. A LAGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS. NOT SURPRISINGLY AT THIS FORECAST LENGTH GUIDANCE IS VARIED BUT ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST AN EASTWARD OR COASTAL STORM PATH. WILL INCLUDE A LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF LIQUID FORM FOR NOW. THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR IS QUESTIONABLE FOR THIS STORM BUT THE STORM TRACK AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS A PATTERN THAT BEARS WATCHING. -BLAES They read my mind! I will say the trend on the last storm seemed to be to move the high from the NE east out to sea quicker...and the gulf low in the STJ slower; as we got closer in (doh!!). If that trend keeps as modeled right now we'd be right where we want to be. High slides east in time for the low to be right underneath. Still seems like the high is too far north though for a good wedge storm in the piedmont. I'd like to see it in NY or OH for cad and not canada...especially being modeled at only 1025 or so. I'd feel pretty good in the mountains though at this point. Also, I'd like to see grit and wow honking on a storm. If not it probably doesn't have much merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well, this could very well be the last shot at winter weather for some in the southeast. There's no way to know what will happen, but warning shots are being fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What does the French Model say. It is the only one I trust at this point. Also, where can you find the French model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well, this could very well be the last shot at winter weather for some in the southeast. There's no way to know what will happen, but warning shots are being fired. For spring or winter storm? The warning shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We need it timed just right or we are going to see heavy rain. That's why I went with 90% against the synchronization of moisture and cold a few days ago..the last two events were more so easy because you had long duration dry cold air it was just a matter of when. This time......the two are tying to come together at the same time....so I give it 10% chance of the EURO being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We need it timed just right or we are going to see heavy rain. That's why I went with 90% against the synchronization of moisture and cold a few days ago..the last two events were more so easy because you had long duration dry cold air it was just a matter of when. This time......the two are tying to come together at the same time....so I give it 10% chance of the EURO being right. Think the threat is a day or two beyond this. So this would be the frontal passage rain and a wave is supposed to form on the stalled front! Rain is the safe bet, everytime! But not a guarantee ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EPS does say forget a really good early shot of spring tho. Yea, we warm a bit now-the weekend, but its not really blow torch city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 18z GFS took a step and raked north-west Virginia next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z euro para has a nice rain event for everyone cold lags way behind the system Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EPS looks Miller A rainy....Need everything south...the high up north and the low down below. Yeah the 12z eps run really favors Tennessee at the moment Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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