superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The 00z Euro just went BOOM for a central NC/NW SC pastebomb on February 23rd-24th. All aboard the hype train!!!! 6-12" for CLT, GSO, RDU, and up into SE VA. The clown has 9" for GSO/CLT and 13" for RDU with a pocket of 16" N of RDU, haha. Anyways, I'm going to try to take a break from model watching for a few days, but I hope the Euro is on to something (probably just dumb luck, but we can hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The 00z Euro just went BOOM for a central NC/NW SC pastebomb on February 23rd-24th. All aboard the hype train!!!! 6-12" for CLT, GSO, RDU, and up into SE VA. The clown has 9" for GSO/CLT and 13" for RDU with a pocket of 16" N of RDU, haha. Anyways, I'm going to try to take a break from model watching for a few days, but I hope the Euro is on to something (probably just dumb luck, but we can hope). NW trend FTW! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Really strong signal on the ensembles for a storm coming out of the southern branch early next week. Much easier to keep a storm south of us when the wave is coming out of southern Texas/Mexico instead of British Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Really strong signal on the ensembles for a storm coming out of the southern branch early next week. Much easier to keep a storm south of us when the wave is coming out of southern Texas/Mexico instead of British Columbia. Seems like the few times that we have had a strong southern system there was no cold to work with....or at least not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The 00z Euro just went BOOM for a central NC/NW SC pastebomb on February 23rd-24th. All aboard the hype train!!!! 6-12" for CLT, GSO, RDU, and up into SE VA. The clown has 9" for GSO/CLT and 13" for RDU with a pocket of 16" N of RDU, haha. Anyways, I'm going to try to take a break from model watching for a few days, but I hope the Euro is on to something (probably just dumb luck, but we can hope). Ugh. Once again, Midlands left out. I'm leaving this stupid state. Dead end here, with not just weather, but life as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The 00z Euro just went BOOM for a central NC/NW SC pastebomb on February 23rd-24th. All aboard the hype train!!!! 6-12" for CLT, GSO, RDU, and up into SE VA. The clown has 9" for GSO/CLT and 13" for RDU with a pocket of 16" N of RDU, haha. Anyways, I'm going to try to take a break from model watching for a few days, but I hope the Euro is on to something (probably just dumb luck, but we can hope). Would be nice to see the Euro right for a change. One positive is it is usually the best at sniffing out the big dogs first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Can we say CMC for a Win with this event!!! It never backed down with the CAD for days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Can we say CMC for a Win with this event!!! It never backed down with the CAD for days!!! I think it's safe to say that the King has been dethroned, at least for wintry events in the southeast. Let's keep that in mind when looking at the Euro for the 24/25th threat, especially as we get closer to it (assuming the threat remains a threat). 7-8 days ago, it showed me getting a foot of snow yesterday. Having said that, I do believe it was the only model showing a threat at that time, so I guess it did kind of okay for a week + out? Anyway, unless I'm mistaken, this looks a bit like cold chasing moisture to me - but maybe we can get a high in place sooner? CR: I'd like to play an order for a negative NAO and a 1045 high please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Larry Cosgrove added 3 new photos. 1 hr · After the recent snow and ice debacle affecting Appalachia, the Piedmont and the Eastern Seaboard, it is probable that most of you do not want to reminded of the possibility of winter weather. Well, sorry, but.... After a mostly mild stretch across the entire country February 18 - 23, a blocking pattern will emerge over western and northern Canada. At the same time, the sub-Aleutian vortex building up the ridges will capture energy from the western Pacific Ocean (storm) and tropical forcing associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (concentration in Phases 6 and 7, but probably shifting a bit east over the next week or so). A shortwave will dig into the Deep South and then deepen as it tracks along or just offshore of the Eastern Seaboard. I suspect that the digging low will intersect with the subtropical jet stream, possibly in a manner exceeding the low now moving through the Northeast.This system could produce a major wallop of cold, wind and snow (might be rain involved along the coast...too far out to know). Timing on this winter weather event: February 24 - 27. Bottom line: don't let the temperature rebound late this week fool you. I suspect that the block will hold (with percolations and regressions here and there) unto the third week of March before we see a shift to increasingly milder and rainy conditions over all but the Pacific Northwest and north central U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It looks like the EURO is trying to develop a decent block/ridging in Greenland pinching the vortex a bit south. Perhaps that's why this run was cold enough for a snow hit? Overall looks like a real threat to have a storm of some kind, and it's so far south in the southern stream, it actually may run south of us. The problem to me looks like the cold air....it's not quite cold enough for snows at 850. There are highs to our north but they're too far north in Canada. The EURO had a decent size one in NY that did the job. I'd think we need to see the PV move south and the high to the north moving south as well for us to have a chance. What a cruddy way to end the season that would be with a perfect Miller A track that's just too warm in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 ready to move on to the next one, this one was a dud for me, 24-27 looks like a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I love winter weather but I'm not buying it all. I buy the storm 100% but I think lack of cold air. I guess you can say I'm with the GFS solution 90%. But anyway...here is another model that supports the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Can we say CMC for a Win with this event!!! It never backed down with the CAD for days!!! Even a broken clock is right twice a day. You can already see it going all in for the next event. It does this for nearly 90% of the storms it is bound to be right during a cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I know that this is not mid or long range..... but since there is not a thread for tonight's system, I will just say that it could get interesting if that low digs a little more tonight. I could see a quick 2-4 for some mountain locals and I would not be surprised to see some flakes in the air out over the piedmont before it comes to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Can't believe I'm doing this but the 12z GFS looks colder with that day 6/7 event out to hour 153. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Can't believe I'm doing this but the 12z GFS looks colder with that day 6/7 event out to hour 153. The high north of the lakes is pathetic . No chance with a weak high like that Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Gfs misses the phase but maybe a strong clipper behind it. Too far out to believe any op solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I know that this is not mid or long range..... but since there is not a thread for tonight's system, I will just say that it could get interesting if that low digs a little more tonight. I could see a quick 2-4 for some mountain locals and I would not be surprised to see some flakes in the air out over the piedmont before it comes to an end. Looks too warm to me. 1-3" mountains...3-6" a few spots along the TN border...mix in the foothills...rain in the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yep, it would most likely be cold chasing moisture. But it was a good shift. So at this point we know this is a period with some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 None of y'all even gave John corso a chance. Anybody read his thoughts? snow and ice debacle affecting Appalachia, the Piedmont and the Eastern Seaboard, it is probable that most of you do not want to reminded of the possibility of winter weather. Well, sorry, but.... After a mostly mild stretch across the entire country February 18 - 23, a blocking pattern will emerge over western and northern Canada. At the same time, the sub-Aleutian vortex building up the ridges will capture energy from the western Pacific Ocean (storm) and tropical forcing associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (concentration in Phases 6 and 7, but probably shifting a bit east over the next week or so). A shortwave will dig into the Deep South and then deepen as it tracks along or just offshore of the Eastern Seaboard. I suspect that the digging low will intersect with the subtropical jet stream, possibly in a manner exceeding the low now moving through the Northeast.This system could produce a major wallop of cold, wind and snow (might be rain involved along the coast...too far out to know). Timing on this winter weather event: February 24 - 27. Bottom line: don't let the temperature rebound late this week fool you. I suspect that the block will hold (with percolations and regressions here and there) unto the third week of March before we see a shift to increasingly milder and rainy conditions over all but the Pacific Northwest and north central U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Despite the miss on the 12Z GFS--it's close and it's what we want to see at this range from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 As always, it will come down to timing, timing, timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think it's better to NOT have things looking good for us at this range. Having said that, I think the lack of cold will be the killer on this one (as usual) - but there are some highs floating around, so maybe we'll get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Gonna snow next week. Guranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This is going to be a sore one to watch with the EURO/CMC latching on too early. The rug will be ripped out from under us 1 day after someone makes the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This is going to be a sore one to watch with the EURO/CMC latching on too early. The rug will be ripped out from under us 1 day after someone makes the thread. Or we could just wait and see what happens since all we really know is there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The last week of February into March looks to be a time of interest per the PNA and AO. The PNA looks to be strongly positive and the AO strongly negative. Of course the NAO refuses to play. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Historically this is a time period that has produced memorable winter storms. After the first week of March it rapidly becomes harder and harder to produce winter storms. So maybe our last chance for a widespread SE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Pcroton from WU says we will know soon as tomorrow where the WPC leans towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro drops 4" for the GSO area and 8-12" in the mountains and Piedmont region for the February 23-24th system. Raleigh and east are a cold rain, maybe a trace dusting at RDU but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Classic Miller A on the 12z Euro. High pressure in the upper midwest probably needs to be a little quicker getting in but this thing really crawls across the south and dynamics do the job. Not likely to play out this way, but does show the potential. A little quicker with the high and a little slower with the low developing in the southern branch and this would be a widespread snowstorm. As it stands, it's probably a nice snow either way for the MidAtlantic.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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