Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Will be in TN next week near cades cove. Sure would love storm while there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro for next week nice and suppressed. How long before it's in Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro for next week nice and suppressed. How long before it's in Ohio?f192.gif Color me not excited about next week. Cold is extremely marginal at best . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Color me not excited about next week. Cold is extremely marginal at best . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk we know how much that can change this far out. With this current system the Euro and the para from 6 days out at a massive snowstorm for us here in the mtns with -10 850 temps. We know how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Color me not excited about next week. Cold is extremely marginal at best . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Bingo. Look at our last two events...it took at least a week of really dry cold air...to produce two mix events. Unless we see a long duration cold period color me not excited for the rest of February. Once we get into March...its a bit different...it doesn't take long duration cold but the transition lines become much more narrower as well...and favor climo areas of WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 we know how much that can change this far out. With this current system the Euro and the para from 6 days out at a massive snowstorm for us here in the mtns with -10 850 temps. We know how that worked out. Very true but nothing at the moment screams we are gonna see a big shift to colder. The ensembles look colder after this period . Obviously this far out anything is possible like you said but a big cold eastern trough does not look like it's gonna be established until later on . Plenty of time to watch it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 0z para ensembles are onboard the phased solution for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 0z para ensembles are onboard the phased solution for next week. Damn if only if it showed that 6 days later from today it would have my full attention. Why must the MTNS be in the bulls-eye too early again?! It's so hard to have something pop up without little notice or positive trends leading up to an event. It's been the complete opposite this winter in terms of mixing etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 3 or 4 days ago P'tree City had me in zrain, and now it's been sunny all day and I'm currently at 60. Looks like 3 days is too far out to get any kind of handle on what will really happen. Two days ago I was supposed to get 33 and rain. I'm a long way from that, with the sun out and 60, lol. Oh, well, just lets me know the big sleet storm I want will surely sneak up, and no one will expect it. Expecting the models to be right out past a couple of days is a fools errand, at least down here. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm going to be in a cabin near cades cove in TN next week, and I've got a good feeling I'm gonna see a good snow up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 12z EPS control run looks like a big snowstorm for WNC, upon first glance. The EPS mean, in general, supports a Miller A of some sort. It also crushes DC, which gives it instant legitimacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm going to be in a cabin near cades cove in TN next week, and I've got a good feeling I'm gonna see a good snow up there! Probably so I would favor west of the Appalachian mountains seeing some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We can't score on the coldest air mass of the season, I'm sure late Feb and Early March , will save us! Brutal, brutal cold and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 March comes in like a lion! March madness will save us(and not the ncaa kind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The eps looks nice and all but the positive NAO will crush this dream like it has all winter . No chance we get a true Miller a next week with zero blocking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The eps looks nice and all but the positive NAO will crush this dream like it has all winter . No chance we get a true Miller a next week with zero blocking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We've scored snows the last 2 winters without a -NAO, so we do still have a chance, however slim it is! -NAO isn't imperative to score a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We can't score on the coldest air mass of the season, I'm sure late Feb and Early March , will save us! Brutal, brutal cold and snowy For me it wasn't even close to the coldest of the season. The January front got me down to 12 one morning with dps that day as low as -13. Granted we have now been below freezing almost 48 hours but the overcast skies helped a lot with that. Still def had enough cold around for a good storm but the track of the low and lack of anything to hold our high in place killed us. I agree with others though, that this was almost certainly the last dance for the upstate this year. Not just because it is being pessimistic, just a testament to climo and a look at the indeces. We may have one more shot somewhere over the next 2-3 weeks but the reality for NEGA and the upstate is that our best days and potentials are behind us for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 For me it wasn't even close to the coldest of the season. The January front got me down to 12 one morning with dps that day as low as -13. Granted we have now been below freezing almost 48 hours but the overcast skies helped a lot with that. Still def had enough cold around for a good storm but the track of the low and lack of anything to hold our high in place killed us. I agree with others though, that this was almost certainly the last dance for the upstate this year. Not just because it is being pessimistic, just a testament to climo and a look at the indeces. We may have one more shot somewhere over the next 2-3 weeks but the reality for NEGA and the upstate is that our best days and potentials are behind us for this year.I think the high of 31 yesterday, made this the most impressive blast of the season, that's almost 30 degrees below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The eps looks nice and all but the positive NAO will crush this dream like it has all winter . No chance we get a true Miller a next week with zero blocking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We've scored snows the last 2 winters without a -NAO, so we do still have a chance, however slim it is! -NAO isn't imperative to score a winter storm Yeah, it's not impossible. Last two winters we've had a couple of nice storms without...but it seems like we've been fortunate. I think in 2014, a type of "baffin island block" or something formed that ridged in and kept the storm suppressed. But with this current event not suppressed enough, even though it was initially shown to have blocking, it doesn't make one very confident in a coastal solution for next week when there's NONE shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, it's not impossible. Last two winters we've had a couple of nice storms without...but it seems like we've been fortunate. I think in 2014, a type of "baffin island block" or something formed that ridged in and kept the storm suppressed. But with this current event not suppressed enough, even though it was initially shown to have blocking, it doesn't make one very confident in a coastal solution for next week when there's NONE shown. Can't a tall enough ridge, +PNA, in the right position, send a storm south of us and we score a winter storm, with a perfectly timed cold shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The NAO is important but every storm must be evaluated on its own terms. Per the GFS, the first system in the day 8-10 range originates very far south in TX and the then over the Gulf. If true, then that gives a better chance for many of us on this board to score a good winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Can't a tall enough ridge, +PNA, in the right position, send a storm south of us and we score a winter storm, with a perfectly timed cold shot? Sure, not an expert but it does happen. If you've got a nicely positioned trough and the PNA ridge is tall, it can stay south with no blocking IMO. Just depends. The NAO is important but every storm must be evaluated on its own terms. Per the GFS, the first system in the day 8-10 range originates very far south in TX and the then over the Gulf. If true, then that gives a better chance for many of us on this board to score a good winter event. The better and more south it starts the better. But I think it still depends on the trough axis and where everything sets up. Plus will there be any cold around, High pressure in a nice spot. All timing and threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well let's see where this takes us: PNA goes way +, NAO goes way +, EPO goes into -. and WPO is mildly +, MJO is in 6 to 7 with maybe, maybe going to 8 long term ... all in all a crap shoot BUT I'm rooting for the PNA to pull one out, sorta like a 3 pointer at the buzzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This possible storm next week will probably be another disappointment as the lack of sufficient cold war will be a bigger problem and the omnipresent dry slot will screw us over for the third time. Let's just accept that winter is essentially over and begin focusing on the upcoming severe season. Ever since Reagan and Gorbachev left, we can never have enough conflict between major super powers to get a good winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This possible storm next week will probably be another disappointment as the lack of sufficient cold war will be a bigger problem and the omnipresent dry slot will screw us over for the third time. Let's just accept that winter is essentially over and begin focusing on the upcoming severe season. winter is nicer than severe or hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 18z GEFS mean, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What models tend to perform the best this far out? The 8-10 day range that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What models tend to perform the best this far out? The 8-10 day range that is... The Euro can sometimes catch on to something at long and medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 0z GFS warm and wet. Great lakes low now shown in addition this run. Now that I can believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 0z GFS warm and wet. Great lakes low now shown in addition this run. Now that I can believe. The GGEM has an inland runner up I-95. Franklin's Storm! Hits the mountains and even the N foothills and NW Piedmont a bit on the backside and then destroys SW VA up the I-95 cities all the way to Boston. 12"+ for Roanoke, Charlottesville, DC, Baltimore, Philly, NYC, Providence, Boston, etc. JB's dream storm. Didn't we just do this in mid-January? Just another casual DC HECS, on the regular. Looks like 15-20" for the city and 20-30" NW and up into the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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