NC_hailstorm Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Better pattern for the few days of February and early March. -Another moderate warming over the poles so the 10mb and 30mb will decrease, -The MJO is forecasted to rapidly move along to phase 8 in 10-14 days -PNA forecasted to spike Getting a -NAO still might be trouble but we got enough to have a shot,it wouldn't surprise me if someone gets hit in the first 10 days in March, Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Classic. I hope you enjoy your rain Monday! Must be exciting down there! I'll enjoy my day off tomorrow watching the flakes fly all morning. Good luck, I've seen enough snow falling this winter to be content till next year. I'm ready for 80s and 90s. Enjoy the five flakes before rain takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 We can't score on the coldest air of the year, so I'm sure March will be golden! ALL air masses have verified warmer than models predicted so far, so is imagine that bodes worse for end of Feb, 1st of March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 06z GEFS panels 2/27-2/28 is pretty impressive this far out. Indications have been for a last rodeo for the last week of Feb for a while now. This will likely not change for the worse as we get closer, only can change for the best IMO. Trough looks too Far East Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Trough looks too Far East Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well...it is greater than 10 days out. Look for a trough first then worry about placement later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm surprised there's not more discussion in here. Although there is not a winter storm modleled in the day 8-10 range, it won't take much tweaking for that to occur, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm surprised there's not more discussion in here. Although there is not a winter storm modleled in the day 8-10 range, it won't take much tweaking for that to occur, in my opinion. What's the point? Lithium said winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What's the point? Lithium said winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm surprised there's not more discussion in here. Although there is not a winter storm modleled in the day 8-10 range, it won't take much tweaking for that to occur, in my opinion. One disappointment at a time please. There's only so much a fellow can take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Temps in or near the 60's for the rest of February come Tuesday. Fab Feb my ***. Well there's always March. Some of our best snows have happened in March. I'm sure March will be our big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm surprised there's not more discussion in here. Although there is not a winter storm modleled in the day 8-10 range, it won't take much tweaking for that to occur, in my opinion.Heard this about 5 times this winter so far, right now I'm 0-4, and Bricks at the plate, so I'm about to be 0-5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Temps in or near the 60's for the rest of February come Tuesday. Fab Feb my ***. Well there's always March. Some of our best snows have happened in March. I'm sure March will be our big one. it won't be in the 60's after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 One can only wish .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm surprised there's not more discussion in here. Although there is not a winter storm modleled in the day 8-10 range, it won't take much tweaking for that to occur, in my opinion. Agree from Feb 24th on there is quite a bit of SE snowstorm look to the models...it aint over yet. There will be a few more potential heartbreaks to track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ensembles hinting at a phased east coast storm day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well I guess I'll join the party in here, missed this one by 10 to 15 miles as the crow flies. When precip gets back tommorow it'll be ice at best, Most likely cold rain. Glad some.posters did cash in though. Best finger snow storm in NC history. Never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 One can only wish .... 1.gif That 1899 outbreak must have been truly something else, dwarfing even the Jan 85 outbreak in many respects. Seems to have been longer lasting and brought snow to many places in the south. Would love to see something like that in my lifetime as I was really too young to appreciate the 85 outbreak. As for the last week of feb, it would be nice to see a final chance for non mtn locations, but putting hope in that time of year is inviting heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If you want to see some funky stuff, take a look at the storm the 00z GFS has for D9-10 over NC. Seemingly impossible movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Over all that's a great look on the GFS in that time frame. Unfortunately, the GFS and EC are completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Over all that's a great look on the GFS in that time frame. Unfortunately, the GFS and EC are completely different. Go Figure that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Over all that's a great look on the GFS in that time frame. Unfortunately, the GFS and EC are completely different. ensembles actually look similar between GEFS and EPS, without nitpicking on placement, the pacific looks to cooperate on both models late next week with a decent trough in the east for a last rodeo of Feb. We'll see how the ensembles trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I don't think that will work out for us here. With no -NAO, if it does crank up it will cut west of the Apps IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ensembles hinting at a phased east coast storm day 9-10. Euro parallel run from 0z shows a Miller A day 9-10. Out of the eastern gulf to off the SC/NC coast. Currently shown as warm, but it's track is beautiful for you guys over that way. Long way out, but I don't think you guys are done (even though it feels that way to many) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS keeps advertising a good wedge setup in the 8 to 10 day time frame. Lots of things can change obviously but it looks like we'll have a pacific ridge and confluence in the northeast at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro parallel run from 0z shows a Miller A day 9-10. Out of the eastern gulf to off the SC/NC coast. Currently shown as warm, but it's track is beautiful for you guys over that way. Long way out, but I don't think you guys are done (even though it feels that way to many)12z Gfs has it too, looks too warm but good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I strongly believe it will end up wet/warm for that particular setup...even for the foothills. I don't think the winter weather is over, but not buying that at all on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Story of the winter . We get help from the pna and EPO but the pattern is way too progressive. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Glad Im at work up here in greensboro and can look out the window at snow on the ground: I hope I'm wrong but I beleive today will be the last snow I see down here till next winter. Got a small window as Feb closes out next week, but temps are going to be a huge issue as well as track. Came really close to a HSECS last 2 weekends and timing was off just enough to come up empty handed. Mtns should have a couple more shots at a nwf event on backside of lows but not sure if theyll get a synoptic shot again. JB thinks next week system cuts to the lakes as oppossed to a coastal. After that your into the month of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I agree that cutters gonna cut. Probably end up being just like this "storm" now. Except this time we had the cold air and we still couldn't get the low south of us. I think I got about a week worth of model watching left and it's about time to jump. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hopefully the 12z GFS is right at least with the rain it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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