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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Better pattern for the few days of February and early March.

-Another moderate warming over the poles so the 10mb and 30mb will decrease,

-The MJO is forecasted to rapidly move along to phase 8 in 10-14 days

-PNA forecasted to spike

 

Getting a -NAO still might be trouble but we got enough to have a shot,it wouldn't surprise me if someone gets hit in the first 10 days in March,

 

Just my opinion

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06z GEFS panels

2/27-2/28 is pretty impressive this far out. Indications have been for a last rodeo for the last week of Feb for a while now. This will likely not change for the worse as we get closer, only can change for the best IMO.

C5kCGP6.jpg

WnM9dMa.jpg

Trough looks too Far East

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I'm surprised there's not more discussion in here. Although there is not a winter storm modleled in the day 8-10 range, it won't take much tweaking for that to occur, in my opinion.

 

Agree from Feb 24th on there is quite a bit of SE snowstorm look to the models...it aint over yet. There will be a few more potential heartbreaks to track lol. 

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One can only wish ....

 

attachicon.gif1.gif

That 1899 outbreak must have been truly something else, dwarfing even the Jan 85 outbreak in many respects. Seems to have been longer lasting and brought snow to many places in the south. Would love to see something like that in my lifetime as I was really too young to appreciate the 85 outbreak. As for the last week of feb, it would be nice to see a final chance for non mtn locations, but putting hope in that time of year is inviting heartbreak. 

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Over all that's a great look on the GFS in that time frame. Unfortunately, the GFS and EC are completely different.

ensembles actually look similar between GEFS and EPS, without nitpicking on placement, the pacific looks to cooperate on both models late next week with a decent trough in the east for a last rodeo of Feb. We'll see how the ensembles trend. 

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Ensembles hinting at a phased east coast storm day 9-10.

Euro parallel run from 0z shows a Miller A day 9-10.  Out of the eastern gulf to off the SC/NC coast.  Currently shown as warm, but it's track is beautiful for you guys over that way. Long way out, but I don't think you guys are done (even though it feels that way to many)

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Euro parallel run from 0z shows a Miller A day 9-10. Out of the eastern gulf to off the SC/NC coast. Currently shown as warm, but it's track is beautiful for you guys over that way. Long way out, but I don't think you guys are done (even though it feels that way to many)

12z Gfs has it too, looks too warm but good setup.
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Glad Im at work up here in greensboro and can look out the window at snow on the ground: I hope I'm wrong but I beleive today will be the last snow I see down here till next winter. Got a small window as Feb closes out next week, but temps are going to be a huge issue as well as track. Came really close to a HSECS last 2 weekends and timing was off just enough to come up empty handed. Mtns should have a couple more shots at a nwf event on backside of lows but not sure if theyll get a synoptic shot again. JB thinks next week system cuts to the lakes as oppossed to a coastal. After that your into the month of March.

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