franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 18z gfs is gonna be amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z Gfs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well at least we have our miller A back for the 18z. Too bad it's a rainstorm! Just need a compromise between the 18z and the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z CMC has some serious CAD.. The cold air doesn't even leave until midday Tuesday or so. Seems like fantasy but hopefully some mets can say I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 If the para shows a cutter I'm gonna get seriously worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yeah, the 18z GFS is ugly, but also so vastly different than its previous solutions that I'd say wait until the 00z to see if it is a one-time thing or a trend. It's a workable solution towards getting something better IMO, but that high is WAY outta there by the time the storm arrives. Again, not sure if I buy that, but if the models keep up with it, it seems inevitable it will be anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Fishel said, "Imagine this. The coldest air mass of the season, and 36 hours after it peaks, we could have above freezing and raining." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 18z GFS has no shortage of QPF. Tracks the low from central GA to CAE, resulting in a rainstorm for most of the board except the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Fishel said, "Imagine this. The coldest air mass of the season, and 36 hours after it peaks, we could have above freezing and raining." Unless we have a stiff southerly breeze, I simply do not see the air mass warming that quickly. We've seen the retreat take significantly longer than expected multiple times in recent years. Add in extremely low dew points to start. Of course, warmer and wetter is typically a good bet in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 18z GFS has no shortage of QPF. Tracks the low from central GA to CAE, resulting in a rainstorm for most of the board except the highest elevations. If it keeps slowing down, maybe the next high will have time to work in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Fishel said, "Imagine this. The coldest air mass of the season, and 36 hours after it peaks, we could have above freezing and raining." We shouldn't expect anything else around here. Snow is the exception in The Triangle and not the rule. Looks like this one could end up being partially rain for just about everybody on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 If it keeps slowing down, maybe the next high will have time to work in!I saw that! I'm all in! It's a beaut in MN! Banana high, FTW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DDT!!! Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos. 1 hr · UPDATE ON FEB 16 EAST COAST WINTER STORM " THREAT" Our initial assessment from yesterday with regard to the February 16 East coast winter storm appears to be holding. The data is pretty strong that this is not going to be a "pure" or all snow storm event for the big cities of the East Coast-- from Raleigh and Richmond to New York City New Haven Province and Boston. Inland however especially close to interstate 81 - see IMAGE #1 - the precipitation is likely to stay mos... See More don't believe that map, no way mtns. of nc will change to rain, kinda what wx.south is saying, models are not seeing all the cold air in place, think mtns. of nc stays snow the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 i don't see the precip getting that far west anyway as box A is, I don't think they see anything, I bet its a I 95 special before its over. this will trend south and east with time with that kind of H pressure up north. dewpoints will be very low so when precip starts temp will fall more. models don't see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 don't believe that map, no way mtns. of nc will change to rain, kinda what wx.south is saying, models are not seeing all the cold air in place, think mtns. of nc stays snow the whole event. Yea and no way the Upstate stays all rain with that CAD either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yea and no way the Upstate stays all rain with that CAD either!So we toss the Ukie and GFS , don't like the way the Euro looks, too amped! What happens when we run out of models to toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 don't believe that map, no way mtns. of nc will change to rain, kinda what wx.south is saying, models are not seeing all the cold air in place, think mtns. of nc stays snow the whole event. I don't, I just posted it for entertainment!!! This is not his forecast, He said just what the 12z models depict.... And I've been following him for many years now, and I can't remember a single time he has been right with his forecast for here..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 So we toss the Ukie and GFS , don't like the way the Euro looks, too amped! What happens when we run out of models to toss? Not saying toss anything but we all know this will end up colder than what the models showing rain will be. Those models GFS for sure almost always underestimates the Cold. Plus with that H I would bet the whole system ends up much further south than what is being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just wanted to put out, the Canadian 12z ensemble members.. aren't absolutely horrible with support for Winter weather in the Southeast. From just south of CAE latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Anybody know what the story is with the para euro on wxbell? Seems like its stuck. Does it normally take this long to load? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DT thinks this is gonna be the wettest snowstorm ever for anyone south of VA. Given the way our winter has gone thus far, I cant say I disagree agree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not saying toss anything but we all know this will end up colder than what the models showing rain will be. Those models GFS for sure almost always underestimates the Cold. Plus with that H I would bet the whole system ends up much further south than what is being modeled.Agree, the last storm did just that, trend SE and colder! I think a blend of the extreme Ukie/GFS runs and the very flat wave solution, would be realistic at this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Geez... lots of mega hits on the 18z GEFS ensembles.. I think over half of them are giving me at least 2 or 3 inches. Its safe to say that all solutions are still on the table at this point. Right now, the best forecast is probably going with a blend of the gfs and euro ensemble means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Hm, those 18z GEFS maps show just enough uncertainty to make me keep paying attention. E5 is a big hitter around the Midlands before going over to ZR. In fact, reminds me a bit of the Canadian 12z ensembles.. more members.. but the idea of deeper cold/wintry precip isn't too off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Anybody know what the story is with the para euro on wxbell? Seems like its stuck. Does it normally take this long to load? It's experimental, so it doesn't follow the same rules as other models. It's "whenever they feel like running the model and pushing the data to the servers" is when we'll get it on wxbell. Sometimes it doesn't even run or skips runs, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Hm, those 18z GEFS maps show just enough uncertainty to make me keep paying attention. E5 is a big hitter around the Midlands before going over to ZR. In fact, reminds me a bit of the Canadian 12z ensembles.. more members.. but the idea of deeper cold/wintry precip isn't too off. 18z GEFS was south of the op. Low tracking from Waycross to off the coast at MYR. Looks like it would put a lot more people in play if it trended that way, including y'all in the midlands hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Geez... lots of mega hits on the 18z GEFS ensembles.. I think over half of them are giving me at least 2 or 3 inches. Its safe to say that all solutions are still on the table at this point. Right now, the best forecast is probably going with a blend of the gfs and euro ensemble means. only found 1 ensemble member that cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Geez... lots of mega hits on the 18z GEFS ensembles.. I think over half of them are giving me at least 2 or 3 inches. Its safe to say that all solutions are still on the table at this point. Right now, the best forecast is probably going with a blend of the gfs and euro ensemble means. Wow, I counted about 12 with at least 3 inches for CLT. Didn't expect that with the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wow, I counted about 12 with at least 3 inches for CLT. Didn't expect that with the 18Z.Is it weird to have 2 or 3 models with op runs that are North, and their ensembles a good deal further south? I know there are usually one model that usually does this, but to have 2 or more different ones, just seems unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's experimental, so it doesn't follow the same rules as other models. It's "whenever they feel like running the model and pushing the data to the servers" is when we'll get it on wxbell. Sometimes it doesn't even run or skips runs, as well. Well that stinks, I was thinking since it's showing the 12z run that it would start loading images at some point. What is the latest time it usually comes out, (if it does load). I'm starting to think we've missed our window for 12z run to load... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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