packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Interesting that the Euro Control is an apps runner, but it keeps CAD regions of GA/SC below freezing for all of the precip, which is widespread 1 to 2 inches of liquid. The Freezing line runs from just south of Charlotte to the northeastern burbs of Atlanta as of 1am Tuesday when most of the precip has already moved through. Why don't you fire up a storm thread for this one before the 0z runs tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 APPREGE, "The weenies #1 choice for weather porn" Seriously though, I don't think it's done that bad in the few storms I've followed. If anything, i feel like it's been slightly too amped up in longer ranges. The image above looks really good. At 114, the high is in a great spot with precip not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 APPREGE, "The weenies #1 choice for weather porn" Seriously though, I don't think it's done that bad in the few storms I've followed. If anything, i feel like it's been slightly too amped up in longer ranges. hopefully the Euro para comes in with a middle of the rd solution between the Euro op and Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's cold with precipitation breaking out by 114. That model let me down, it took until the day of the last event to finally let go of the precip getting into my area. In theory extrapolated, it would be a Winter storm even South of CAE. I think it did very well at 3 and 4 day leads with the coastal bomb compared to other models. The precip placement was off, but the 5h and surface reflections matched up pretty well with what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The image above looks really good. At 114, the high is in a great spot with precip not too far away. 1035 high + and precip coming in. It's about the perfect look to those still wanting snow North of me. Maybe not so good down here for sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Why don't you fire up a storm thread for this one before the 0z runs tonight?presidents day storm...will we shovel or float? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 From RAH... MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHERROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THEERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THECANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMERAPPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWINGTHROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHTBEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTINGMON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NEWED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERNTHROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTYREGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUTCONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGHENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF ISCORRECT... WE'D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OFMOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPSINCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONESHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD STARTTO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THEWARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 1035 high + and precip coming in. It's about the perfect look to those still wanting snow North of me. Maybe not so good down here for sleet/ice. Will you please post the link for that again? I know you did before, but I lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 JB's afternoon thoughts on the system! 3 storms are going to be used to analog the snow amounts next week March 2-4 1994, Feb 13-15 1984, Dec 26-27 2012. One of the them was a huge rainstorm all the way back here and yes I see the euro but it looks like its developing the upper low too far south and by doing so, has too much ridge in front. I like the storm to the Ohio valley, the reforming over Ga and coming up the coast just inland. Obviously in the big cities that is snow to rain. But the euro makes little sense for instance as the upper low track in winter is a classic areas just west of the track but it has rain all the way back to Cleveland at one time with this. In addition the model warms for instance, State College from 24 to 40 degrees while preciping in 6-12 hours on a southeast wind. So while possible, I dont think its plausible. I will play with test numbers a bit later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Will you please post the link for that again? I know you did before, but I lost it. Here ya go. It updates even faster than other sources.. - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=0&carte=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 From HPC Model Analysis...they are not buying the UKMet....will they go down with the ship?? 19Z UPDATE: NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE UKMETREMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND WILL REMAINOUTSIDE OUR PREFERRED PREFERENCE FOR NOW. THE 12Z GEM IS ALSOPRETTY SIMILAR TO ITS OLD RUN. THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SLOWERAND IS CLOSER TO ITS 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY. STILL GOING WITH APREFERENCE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWFSOLUTIONS...WITH ONLY THE UKMET CONTINUING TO APPEAR OUTSIDE THEBEST CLUSTERING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well, if you look strictly at hour 96.. the ukmet is way out on an island. No other global model shows the shortwave in the pacific diving down into Colorado like it does. The Euro looks similar to the GFS/CMC at 96hrs, it's differences show up after this point when additional pacific energy is diving into the backside of broad-based trough. For this reason, I think we can basically toss the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Even if it starts as snow on Monday...the snow will immediately stick to anything, including roads. Minor precip could still be a big impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 ^ UKMet is probably wrong with the more SW tracking wave, but it gives some credence to a more stout system in the end IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Interesting that the Euro Control is an apps runner, but it keeps CAD regions of GA/SC below freezing for all of the precip, which is widespread 1 to 2 inches of liquid. The Freezing line runs from just south of Charlotte to the northeastern burbs of Atlanta as of 1am Tuesday when most of the precip has already moved through. I'm afraid this may end up being a major ICE Storm for us. We need to hope for a southern track to pull those 850s down some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z Gfs para is what I would cash out with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The image above looks really good. At 114, the high is in a great spot with precip not too far away. At 114, the French Model is the flattest with the wave of all the models....sfc high is in the best position (farthest west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 At 114, the French Model is the flattest with the wave of all the models....sfc high is in the best position (farthest west)hug it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Even if it starts as snow on Monday...the snow will immediately stick to anything, including roads. Minor precip could still be a big impact.Yeah, the temps before being so cold, I won't have to start precip at 50 degrees and wait on the wedge to build in, like the Jan event! Even a small amount of QPF and these temps, will turn roads to instant parking lots, especially , if it starts around midnight or early AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Let's review what is likely to happen per climo: 1. There will be some ice/frozen precip for most North of Atl 2. Precip amounts will be over done 3. CAD will NOT leave as quickly as modeled 4. Areas in the Western Piedmont and mtns will stay frozen longest 5. System will come further West than modeled 6. There WILL be a warm nose everywhere and for a substantial period of time 7. Track will not be clear until Sat night of Sunday morning 8. Some of us WILL lose power due to ice bringing down trees and power lines 9. It will rain over Brick's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 hug it! "I don't know Lloyd. The French are a**holes". -Dumb and Dumber The Ukie is the most likely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Let's review what is likely to happen per climo: 1. There will be some ice/frozen precip for most North of Atl 2. Precip amounts will be over done 3. CAD will NOT leave as quickly as modeled 4. Areas in the Western Piedmont and mtns will stay frozen longest 5. System will come further West than modeled 6. There WILL be a warm nose everywhere and for a substantial period of time 7. Track will not be clear until Sat night of Sunday morning 8. Some of us WILL lose power due to ice bringing down trees and power lines 9. It will rain over Brick's house Agree on all counts, especially #4. - and #9 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DDT!!! Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos. 1 hr · UPDATE ON FEB 16 EAST COAST WINTER STORM " THREAT" Our initial assessment from yesterday with regard to the February 16 East coast winter storm appears to be holding. The data is pretty strong that this is not going to be a "pure" or all snow storm event for the big cities of the East Coast-- from Raleigh and Richmond to New York City New Haven Province and Boston. Inland however especially close to interstate 81 - see IMAGE #1 - the precipitation is likely to stay mos... See More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Me, but then again, I am weird then i must be weird too - i love a good ice storm...anything other than a cold rain in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 then i must be weird too - i love a good ice storm...anything other than a cold rain in the winter I second that!!! Haven't seen a good ICE storm in a long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 then i must be weird too - i love a good ice storm...anything other than a cold rain in the winter Agree, nothing worse than cold rain...not the poster on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 then i must be weird too - i love a good ice storm...anything other than a cold rain in the winter Me 3! I'm rigged for power outages so no worries and I don't try to drive in it. I like the idea of traditional cad areas gettin a nice mixed bag right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 D to tha T must be in bed with the Ukie! He has all rain for me, but I'm not in his prime demographic ! And nobody exists S of VA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 D to tha T must be in bed with the Ukie! He has all rain for me, but I'm not in his prime demographic ! And nobody exists S of VA! Agree, He has start snow here then quickly over to all rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Agree, nothing worse than cold rain...not the poster on here I'm in as long as it's frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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