NEGa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro and Ukmet arent exactly in the same camp. The ukmet goes negative tilt with a long wave trough over the mississippi river. The euro isn't nearly that aggressive, and would still imply a front end snow/ice threat for some area's. Also, the euro is sending the surface low right into where the heart of an insitu wedge would be. I'm not buying that at this point. It should either cut west of the apps, or jump more towards the coast. IMO Also, The euro has my temp at 29/11 Monday morning when precip starts, at 1pm i'm at 30/25, at 7pm: 31/30 and at 1am 35/34. So it essentially shows zero cooling from wetbulbing... I'm definitely not buying that. any time there are temps progged to be in the 30s with dewpoints in the teens and moisture around it gets my attention, so with temps in the upper 20s and dewpoints that low if there is any precip around you'd think the wedge would lock in for a while, at least, even if it does eventually warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This low track is in no way favorable for central NC. Sure squeeze some ice out maybe. Even western areas this isn't the storm for us. Its a TN and VA north storm. wnc I think will do well with this storm, no way it cuts due to the large H pressure, I 95 Special I think N.GA and extreme Upstate in business also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I would say this is the likely case that will occur. Have not looked at sounding for this area. if I had to guess, 2" of snow followed by sleet followed by freezing rain followed by rain. I'd say about an inch or so of the total QPF could possibly be frozen/freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Here's 12/02 for comparison...storm and high pressure to the north marching in unison (sfc high not working off the NE coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12Z GFS still gives RDU a scary amount of FZRA.... I'd rather have cold rain. I lost power for 40 hours with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 5h low at 144 is sitting on the Tennessee border with Alabama and Georgia. 0z run had it in eastern ky/Virginia border at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is Sunday at 03z. 850mb temp of -32 deg C in NY State (sfc high is in W Wisconsin at this time). That's rare company in terms of the initial cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is it just me or is this system trending towards a 1/22 scenario? Hybrid miller A/B, CAD, copious QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is it just me or is this system trending towards a 1/22 scenario? Hybrid miller A/B, CAD, copious QPF I honestly expect to see the s/e trend on the euro to continue and the CAD show stronger in future model runs. Mostly because of the extreme cold that is in place before the storm. Again, models have a hard time with CAD at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is it just me or is this system trending towards a 1/22 scenario? Hybrid miller A/B, CAD, copious QPF I actually had the same thought when I looked at the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is Sunday at 03z. 850mb temp of -32 deg C in NY State (sfc high is in W Wisconsin at this time). That's rare company in terms of the initial cold air source. That's why I expect this thing to go a little further south and east as time goes on. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is it just me or is this system trending towards a 1/22 scenario? Hybrid miller A/B, CAD, copious QPF That is what I was thinking could happen, too. A mix bag event, but might be colder this time since we have colder air in place longer beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That is what I was thinking could happen, too. A mix bag event, but might be colder this time since we have colder air in place longer beforehand. The cold air at the surface isn't the issue so much as it is the warm air, for this to be a big snowstorm we need the SLP to track way south and keep the warm noses away....otherwise crippling ice storm and who wants that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The cold air at the surface isn't the issue so much as it is the warm air, for this to be a big snowstorm we need the SLP to track way south and keep the warm noses away....otherwise crippling ice storm and who wants that? Me, but then again, I am weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro actually hangs on with the parent high longer and actually is more impressive with the wedge during the day Monday..as it keeps temps sub freezing even without precip into the afternoon. The euro appears to wrongly drive the surface low straight into the wedge which models often do..which ca uses instant doubts in its surface temps. Once again it really looks like the warming being shown is unrealistic. The Canadian and euro actually aren't that far off pressure wise with the low and parent high. The Canadian though is much colder and much more likely to be right. It shows the wedge extending up to at least 925mb...easily deep enough to resist temps warming....especially against modest 850m temps. The euro is warmer at 850 but even 6 or 7c probably wouldn't be enough to overcome the depth and degree of the boundary layer. However since the euro wants to drive the low straight into the wedge it's probably a bit too warm at that level. So the way I see it I see nothing on the euro or any of the other guidance that makes me believe temps will warm up in cad regions from north ga into the western carolinas to prevent significant icing. The bigger question to me is just how much total precip there will be. Great analysis, and I firmly agree. The Euro and UKMet actually are further apart than the GFS/GGEM. Right now you have your likely bookend solutions, with the GFS progressive bias on display while the Euro tends to over amp primary lows. A few other points: 1) The euro is quite a bit slower than the GGEM/GFS, which allows the wedge to erode slightly more and push the primary further north. If the old moniker about the ECMWF "holding back the shortwave" holds true here, that could make a huge difference. 2) This is a no joke cold air mass. If I go from 12 to 48 Fahrenheit in less than 24 hours as the Euro is suggesting, that would be close to a record rise in this part of the world without full sunshine. That alone keeps me very skeptical. The GGEM shows a much more "natural" progression of temps. 3) This is still really really far out to worry about anything other than the fact there is energy and cold air around. Sure, we don't have a 50/50 low modeled, but the piedmont and foothills have done more with less. Agree with other posters that an ice storm is certainly on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Nice post NFL and thanks for the input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 EPS is colder by a bit and the mean is flatter than the op with the next wave, but several members are similar to the sharper slower Op. Good thing is that no members are as slow as the Ukie, despite that model's consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 KGSP Afternoon AFD .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED RELATIVE TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WHICH STARTS OUT HIGH AS THE FCST IS DRY FOR SUNDAY...BUT RAPIDLY GOES DOWNHILL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OUT BEYOND 00Z MONDAY HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO HOW DEEP/STRONG THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT COMES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER TROF THE MOST AND CLOSES OFF A LOW AT 500 MB. WITH ITS STRONGER SYSTEM...THERE IS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UP CONSIDERABLY MORE WARM AIR...AND MOISTURE...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MIGHT EVEN SUGGEST A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IF IT WORKS OUT. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...AS IS THE CANADIAN. THE GFS HAS ONLY A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICALLY...IT COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM...AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LESS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND WOULD KEEP A COLDER TEMP PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY A FAVORABLE ONE FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS COLD ENOUGH AIR WOULD STAY IN PLACE WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDE THE FORCING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN PRECIP ONSET AND PROBABILITY. THINK THAT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN E OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY MORNING. THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD RAISE THE PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN KEEP IT LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT WE WILL HAVE A PRECIP-TYPE PROBLEM AT ONSET MONDAY EVEN IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED IN LATER ISSUANCES. AT LEAST THE IMPACT MIGHT BE LESSENED BY THE PRESIDENTS DAY HOLIDAY. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. WE ARE LEAST CONFIDENT IN THE PRECIP TYPE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A WINTER STORM OR JUST A NUISANCE EVENT. THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS ARE MOST INDICATIVE OF THE PROBLEM...WITH QPF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES LIQUID IN MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH MERE HUNDREDTHS. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT NRN STREAM CLIPPER STAYS WELL TO THE N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any one looked at the French model. It has done pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro ensembles are less amped than the op and look a little flatter compared to the 0z ensembles. The control run now has an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any one looked at the French model. It has done pretty well. It's cold with precipitation breaking out by 114. That model let me down, it took until the day of the last event to finally let go of the precip getting into my area. In theory extrapolated, it would be a Winter storm even South of CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's cold with precipitation breaking out by 114. That model let me down, it took until the day of the last event to finally let go of the precip getting into my area. Yeah, but it was pretty close with the SLP track/placement from several days out, to the best my recollection. I mean, I don't remember ever seeing it waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay offshore like some of the other models tried to do, not getting any precip inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yeah, but it was pretty close with the SLP track/placement from several days out, to the best my recollection. I mean, I don't remember ever seeing it waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay offshore like some of the other models tried to do, not getting any precip inland. If anything, it had the low too close to the coast for a big chunk of forecast time. But with that said, I'll throw some maps up in a few from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Anyone from the upstate to Detroit is in the game for a big hit on the euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 ARPEGE hour 114: PMSL - 850- 2m - Precip - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro ensembles are less amped than the op and look a little flatter compared to the 0z ensembles. The control run now has an apps runner. My thoughts on the Euro Ens mean....the 12z is a little slower with the wave (compared to 00z Euro Ens)....so, in accounting for this in the comparison, overall it looked like the amplitude of the wave was similar, but not quite as deep (slightly weaker) in the end, which is notable considering that the mean should naturally get stronger as we get closer in time. It was a little stronger with the damming, and a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Interesting that the Euro Control is an apps runner, but it keeps CAD regions of GA/SC below freezing for all of the precip, which is widespread 1 to 2 inches of liquid. The Freezing line runs from just south of Charlotte to the northeastern burbs of Atlanta as of 1am Tuesday when most of the precip has already moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Matthew East said the Euro shifted south. Sounds like he doesn't buy the UKMET. Matthew East 4 mins · (1/2) 12z model thoughts... UKMET remains in its own world. 12z Euro shifted south. Many ensemble members further south than operational. Matthew East 1 min · (2/3) Canad. essentially held serve, GFS/ CAN sig. hits of winter weather in CAD areas. NO CHANGES from me. Favor low track from AL to E NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 APPREGE, "The weenies #1 choice for weather porn" Seriously though, I don't think it's done that bad in the few storms I've followed. If anything, i feel like it's been slightly too amped up in longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 My thoughts on the Euro Ens mean....the 12z is a little slower with the wave (compared to 00z Euro Ens)....so, in accounting for this in the comparison, overall it looked like the amplitude of the wave was similar, but not quite as deep (slightly weaker) in the end, which is notable considering that the mean should naturally get stronger as we get closer in time. It was a little stronger with the damming, and a little colderit actually looks like less of a storm signal compared to 0z. Very odd run ad odd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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