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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Would you care to expound upon your opinion, maybe some synoptic reasoning? 2/4, 2/7 and 2/10 all show at-least some level of potential for areas of the SE. So lets me a realist for the moment, 2/4 - cold air chasing the precip, extreme NE NC and SE VA could flip at the tail end, but on a warm wet ground, no sig impacts would be expected. 2/7 - coastal development occurs too far north for anyone outside of the northern MA and southern NE. 2/10 - superstorm, the Southeast gets dry slotted while FL gets wrecked with severe storms and MS/AL up through western TN see a foot. Am I missing anything? Can we punt until the 2nd part of Feb?

West TN, is basically the plains, and yes , we punt till the 2nd half of Feb, and we will be pinned back in the end zone ! I mean lows in the teens is awesome wintry weather, I've already had 3 days with lows in the teens , even way down here. I think we have one AL poster.
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Would you care to expound upon your opinion, maybe some synoptic reasoning?  2/4, 2/7 and 2/10 all show at-least some level of potential for areas of the SE.  So lets me a realist for the moment, 2/4 - cold air chasing the precip, extreme NE NC and SE VA could flip at the tail end, but on a warm wet ground, no sig impacts would be expected.  2/7 - coastal development occurs too far north for anyone outside of the northern MA and southern NE.  2/10 - superstorm, the Southeast gets dry slotted while FL gets wrecked with severe storms and MS/AL up through western TN see a foot.  Am I missing anything?  Can we punt until the 2nd part of Feb?

 

I've already punted so much this winter my foot hurts.

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Every one tick in Kelvin you are changing almost 2 F, 9/5 to be exact. Take climo and then subtract, 5-10 degree departures for the week which is impressive. With the greatest H5 anoms shown over the Lakes, it is going to be hard to get a storm far enough south for us to be in game. We want to see the max negative anoms over the lower MS River Valley. Still, that output is showing the avg for a week, so there's a chance.

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Jon,

Any way, or how, to convert those to approx. real surface temps?

Phil

Exactly what WeatherNC said, and I'm going to echo him here - just take the K which you can think of as Celsius and convert. 1 K = 1 C = 9/5 F or 1.8 F. The easiest way mentally to do this is to just multiply the numbers in K charts by two.

So take ATL for example:

3.5-4 K departure from normal

3.5(1.8) to 4(1.8) or 6.3 to 7.2F below normal.

The EXCAM is saying for that week total is -7 below climo normal for ATL. That doesn't sound too cold right off the bat but for a weekly anomaly it is.

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Exactly what WeatherNC said, and I'm going to echo him here - just take the K which you can think of as Celsius and convert. 1 K = 1 C = 9/5 F or 1.8 F. The easiest way mentally to do this is to just multiply the numbers in K charts by two.

So take ATL for example:

3.5-4 K departure from normal

3.5(1.8) to 4(1.8) or 6.3 to 7.2F below normal.

The EXCAM is saying for that week total is -7 below climo normal for ATL. That doesn't sound too cold right off the bat but for a weekly anomaly it is.

 

How well does the EXCAM do on weekly temperatures at this range?

 

Negative. The WB Euro maps are not allowed to be posted here.

The 18z GFS looked fairly similar, though, so there's that if you want some fantasy stuff to look over (better look now before it disappears next run, haha).  :)

 

 

Looked at it, not much fantasy for ATL...  :mellow:

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How well does the EXCAM do on weekly temperatures at this range?

Looked at it, not much fantasy for ATL... :mellow:

Pretty good you would think, it did ok for Jan overall and that's 3 weeks worth of extrapolated analog blending whereas the week 2 forecast is just one week of extrapolating.

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Well, nearly all of the operational models are a disaster inside of 10 days, if you want snow.  Right around D9/D10 (again) there is the signal for some type of wintry event, which looks to travel over/west of us.  What a shock.  The Ensembles look good for a period around D10 for really cold weather.  Thereafter, the pattern gets muted in the means, which probably means a lot of spread.  The AO looks to head negative and so does the PNA, while the NAO remains positive.  This is according to the CPC charts.  The CFS is a disaster for Feb.

 

The thing that looks like it is going to bite us is the MJO (which apparently this year is doesn't work like the real MJO for some reason *except that it does*), which looks to spend the majority of the rest of winter in the unfavorable side of the chart.

 

But, the analogues and the atari model still look good, as well as apparently some of the other seasonals, so there's that.

 

The snipe hunt continues.....

 

Good morning.

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Well, nearly all of the operational models are a disaster inside of 10 days, if you want snow. Right around D9/D10 (again) there is the signal for some type of wintry event, which looks to travel over/west of us. What a shock. The Ensembles look good for a period around D10 for really cold weather. Thereafter, the pattern gets muted in the means, which probably means a lot of spread. The AO looks to head negative and so does the PNA, while the NAO remains positive. This is according to the CPC charts. The CFS is a disaster for Feb.

The thing that looks like it is going to bite us is the MJO (which apparently this year is doesn't work like the real MJO for some reason *except that it does*), which looks to spend the majority of the rest of winter in the unfavorable side of the chart.

But, the analogues and the atari model still look good, as well as apparently some of the other seasonals, so there's that.

The snipe hunt continues.....

Good morning.

Can you snipe hunt and unicorn hunt at the same time? Anywho, the frigid outbreak tha the GFS is showing , has about a 10% chance of happening, and should be showing up less and less intense as we get closer, IMO! When that blockbuster storm materializes on the 10th or 11th time frame, and gives TN and KY a foot of snow, and runs up the apps, I will be happy for them! I was hoping the bitter air was coming, to atleast kill the bugs, but we can't even get cold right! :(
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Not making a call here, but the one thing I would say about the MJO is that there have been several times in years past that the MJO would head into favorable territory, but a favorable pattern would not develop. Let me clarify that by a favorable patter, I do not mean a historic storm. To me, a favorable pattern means cold air present and opportunities for winter weather. With that said, I do think the MJO can be trumped by other factors. I believe that has happened to us in the past. Hopefully, that happens in Feb. to give us a good pattern despite an unfavorable MJO. It could be that we get this huge storm thru the MW and GL the next couple days and we get more clarity about weather beyond this week. 

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