franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Gfs goes Miller a now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS slow with the precip here so by the time it begins Monday it is maybe a bit of ZR then rain. The later it starts the less chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z gfs tried to give us the goods,but with nothing to keep the cold in place temperatures get a little ugly... but it'll change, not a terrible look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Having the GFS with a perfect look this far out, is probably bad. There weren't massive changes by any means, just slower than the 18z run. In fact, that backside piece was more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z GFS looks like a snow to nasty Ice storm for the upstate region. Hopefully we can trend towards a more snowy look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Storm wise, the GFS has improved in a big way. A lot of precip on that run. Complex setup with the cold air damming. GFS takes a substantial shortwave across the Great Lakes and quickly kicks the sfc high off the NE coast. However, with the initial cold airmass, it could be breaking things down too quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The potential ice on the gfs is a bit scary for usual cad region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Good to see some consistency in the qpf. Now just have to start working on getting the high to stick in there a bit longer and/or pseudo high to form. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The potential ice on the gfs is a bit scary for usual cad region Exactly that's what I was looking at. That cold an air mass at sfc with that much moisture would be lights out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 UKMet is slower than GFS and way amped...looks like a big cutter...it keeps trending more this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The potential ice on the gfs is a bit scary for usual cad region 850s are torching... even verbatim, the NC Piedmont goes to maybe 33 degrees by 150hrs. But with the wedge always underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Credit must be given to the UKMET at this range. It has a 1000mb low way out around MS way slower. 1040 high has pushed away by 144 on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 UKMet is slower than GFS and way amped...looks like a big cutter...it keeps trending more this way Yea, it's definitely concerning. Let's hope no other models jump into that camp tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Canadian holds with a big ice storm...snow in the mtns. It's been very consistent last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z GGEM is going to have a weaker system and more Wintry for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 what happened to NO WAY that high slides out, with the blocked up Atlantic? I remember reading that on here somewhere yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Nice storm on the 0z cmc. Strong wedge w/ cold staying and good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z GGEM is going to have a weaker system and more Wintry for the SE. Maybe a bit more cold, snowier in the upstate to start.. ice pellets & snow through the central Midlands. Wow, it is a nice storm I think for the most part.. crappy maps but may not be icy. Edit: 850s bad for some. nvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This just sounds worse and worse for mby as we go through time compared to even yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This just sounds worse and worse for mby as we go through time compared to even yesterday. What does worse mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Maybe a bit more cold, snowier in the upstate to start.. ice pellets & snow through the central Midlands. Wow, it is a nice storm I think for the most part.. crappy maps but may not be icy. I'm hoping for trends for more snow. Cause that Ice storm look up this way is nasty looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 what happened to NO WAY that high slides out, with the blocked up Atlantic? I remember reading that on here somewhere yesterday! Never been much of a signal to stop the high from sliding out....but it slides out at varying speeds depending on the model and run. A few runs showing some N Atl ridging, but not many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I'm hoping for trends for more snow. Cause that Ice storm look up this way is nasty looking! Well I just noticed the 850s raise.. tons of people (even CAE) 32F or lower based on these maps for duration. Probably a Wintry mess for GSP, CLT, CAE.. waiting for higher-resolution maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 What does worse mean? For mby to get decent snow. Why, what else could it have implied here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 850s are torching... even verbatim, the NC Piedmont goes to maybe 33 degrees by 150hrs. But with the wedge always underdone For cad regions 850 temps are right where bad ice accumulations occur. ...scorching they are not..unless you are referring to snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 For mby to get decent snow. Why, what else could it have implied here? Just hasn't been much of a snow signal for CLT to RDU....maybe a rogue Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well I just noticed the 850s raise.. tons of people (even CAE) 32F or lower based on these maps for duration. Probably a Wintry mess for GSP, CLT, CAE.. waiting for higher-resolution maps. I agree I could see the upstate getting in on a pretty long duration of every winter precip type. Temps just look borderline between All snow and a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's interesting that the ukmet and Euro are so different. The euro almost completely flattens out the pacific wave once it comes ashore. The ukmet really keeps it rolling and drops it south into texas. I think we need to be rooting for a flatter wave as the ukmet solution leads to a phased bomb over the mississippi river valley. The ukmet is on it's own with this idea. (though several GFS ensemble members have been showing this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just hasn't been much of a snow signal for CLT to RDU....maybe a rogue Euro run I agree Grit....From what I've seen so far it's possible to get some snow on the front end but looks more like some sort of ice event. Even some rain w/ the euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's interesting that the ukmet and Euro are so different. The euro almost completely flattens out the pacific wave once it comes ashore. The ukmet really keeps it rolling and drops it south into texas. I think we need to be rooting for a flatter wave as the ukmet solution leads to a phased bomb over the mississippi river valley. The ukmet is on it's own with this idea. (though several GFS ensemble members have been showing this) Well you know these type setups around here are about as perfect for a very nasty Ice storm as we can get. I've seen it too many times. With that cold a wedge with warm 850s and that much moisture spells trouble!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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