LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 FFC is growing confidence in a winter storm next week. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTRY EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BASIS IS THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WHICH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PROGGING. BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR MEMBERS ARE PROGGING A STRONG CAD EVENT SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND TAPPING A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND LOWEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DETERMINING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT WHICH COULD RANGE EVERYTHING FROM AN ALL VERY COLD RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH ALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE WARM NOSE. NONETHELESS. FOR NOW...LEFT EVERYTHING IN THE FORECAST AS A RAIN OR SNOW. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT LIKELY WILL CHANGE AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. Full Discussion below http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 This is the Forecast for Valentines Day night/President's Day for Atlanta right now... Sunday NightA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Washington's BirthdayA chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%. This one may be ours man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Para Euro drops a couple inches of snow over northeast Georgia/Upstate then an inch+ of freezing rain on top. Para Euro snow maps match up closely with the OP Euro. More snow for the mountains. The difference lies in the surface temps. The para is keeping NE GA and Upstate SC sub-freezing when the heaviest axis of precip pivots through on Monday evening. Edit: From Gwinnett through Athens/Anderson/Greenville is still subfreezing at 7pm Monday evening where 1.25 to 1.75 inches of liquid has fallen up and down this line. Also, precip doesnt really make it to Raleigh until midnight, when the wedge has been busted and surface temps have risen to the mid 50's there! (It does this b/c it's plowing the strengthening surface low up through Central, NC) This has got to be one of the wetter solutions! I mean 1.25-1.75 QPF ! Would be awesome, but all the other models look like a very weak system.Have also seen a storm as you described here, with temps in the upper 20s and sleet and freezing rain and RAH in the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like a typical FROPA on the 18z GFS. Is it a warm fropa?? Because by next weekend, (20th) we will all be in the 60s , atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 18z gefs continues to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Why is it so hard for the cold to stay here when precip arrives? It's not like we are in the deep south here in the Triangle or at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Why is it so hard for the cold to stay here when precip arrives? It's not like we are in the deep south here in the Triangle or at the beach. The track of the low brings warm air with it, along with a high trying to slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The track of the low brings warm air with it, along with a high trying to slip away. I know, just always seems to be a fly in the ointment here. Just seems we should be far enough north and west for it not to be so hard to get snow here more often instead of a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It is frustrating. Other parts of the country have low pressure snows...but it doesn't bring the warm with it like they do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I know, just always seems to be a fly in the ointment here. Just seems we should be far enough north and west for it not to be so hard to get snow here more often instead of a cold rain. Welcome to the central Midlands club. Tracks are always just close enough to ruin everything for us down this way. The best run for this area was the 12z Para Euro from yesterday. But, on the flip-side it screwed a lot of people outside the deeper South because it ended up too far South. The track was perfect climo for CAE, Macon, Savannah (possibly) though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Some of you guys need to go to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I know, just always seems to be a fly in the ointment here. Just seems we should be far enough north and west for it not to be so hard to get snow here more often instead of a cold rain. You better hope the track is not correct on the euro op or para because that is a the kiss of death for our area. Strong storm but the inland track does not work for us. Good for the NC mountains though. My daughter is at App State so it might be time for a dad visit. I know she'd love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The 18z GEFS doubled down on qpf! Looks like everything from an apps runner to Miller A to damped out/dried out system is still on the table. Overall, the mean track was further south closer to the Gulf, but unfortunately further inland once it reaches the East coast. Here's the precip totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I know, just always seems to be a fly in the ointment here. Just seems we should be far enough north and west for it not to be so hard to get snow here more often instead of a cold rain. A lot of models want to take the low more inland and push the high out before precipitation sets in. Perhaps it's the weenie inside speaking, but I don't buy this solution. Take this last storm in late January as an example. The GFS wanted to take the low pressure track for that storm further north into the high pressure that was providing our CAD event- just like some aforementioned models are doing with this storm. The Euro began to pick up on this being too far north about 100-120 hours out, and began shifting the track further south. That storm had a much stronger low pressure system and a much weaker high pressure system (around the mid-1020's, if I remember right, versus the mid-to-upper-1030's) than this system. That just begs the question: "If it happened then, why can't it happen now?" It should be noted that one thing that we had with that storm that we don't have with this one was a (retreating) -NAO. That probably helped the high pressure stay in place some with that storm, but again this high pressure is more robust than the 1/22-1/23 storm, so I would think it would have more staying power than what models are showing. Watch tomorrow's 12z and 00z model runs (especially the Euro) for any hints of the storm taking a track further south. If we don't see any models at least hinting at this sort of thing by 12z Thursday, I'd start being skeptical of any significant snow/wintery precipitation falling in the triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DGEX looks very similar to the Euro suite of modeling. The 850's are colder though, this would be all snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Uncertainty is what we have here, ladies and gentlemen. Big track envelope. What makes the least sense? Seems like a runner to me, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Uncertainty is what we have here, ladies and gentlemen. Big track envelope. What makes the least sense? Seems like a runner to me, at this point.All of us getting 4-8" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Non meteorological viewpoint..this entire winter season being offered a significant winter event from this time frame out has only compromised sleep and sanity. Far more optimistic this go round as were not over posting clown maps from 3+ days out. Let's reel this one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It is frustrating. Other parts of the country have low pressure snows...but it doesn't bring the warm with it like they do here. Sure it does. But I know what you mean, its more noticeable for us because of the relatively warm mass of air to our southeast associated with the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Sunday Night Monday looking pretty good, almost time for someone to start a thread for late Sunday / Monday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WxSouth, Had a nice write up this evening for a lot of the SE! Just hope he's got the right Idea.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yep a good size winter storm is 5 days out. Just hope it doesn't leave me in the dark for several days next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It is frustrating. Other parts of the country have low pressure snows...but it doesn't bring the warm with it like they do here. Well, I mean, low pressure systems down here tend to draw their moisture from the gulf so of course, it's bringing the warmer, moist air with it...how else do low pressure systems form and strengthen without both cold and warm air meeting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WxSouth, Had a nice write this evening for a lot of the SE! Just hope he's got the right Idea.......... have a technical, in depth review of the factors leading up to and through the upcoming Winter Storm in the MidSouth and East Coast on Sunday night and Monday at my site (wxsouth.com). The storm shown on European and Canadian models is one that is jet-streak driven (think Jan 1988) where the upper level jet enhances precip amounts in the face of such entrenched cold air firmly in place. The only questions are how much moisture, the angle of the moisture field, and where the 850 freezing line is to start the event in Alabama and Georgia, South Carolina. Already I see an error on the European model low level temps...the storm begins with dewpoints sub zero in Virginia, teens to Atlanta--that is major wetbubl cooling (evaporative cooling) and the model brings temps up to 33 at the end of the event for most of upstate SC and western NC, western VA region but that would be an error thanks to the Pseudo high parked inland for the bulk of the storm. We know how hard it is to dislodge low level cold air, and in this storm, there's plenty of low level cold in place Sunday night and Monday. Check out the discussion and preliminary maps I have. Lots to talk about. Animation is from tropicaltidbits.com and portrays the Canadian model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well, I mean, low pressure systems down here tend to draw their moisture from the gulf so of course, it's bringing the warmer, moist air with it...how else do low pressure systems form and strengthen without both cold and warm air meeting? Also, this issue isn't unique to the southeast. There are plenty of midwest blizzards where Chicago gets rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Uncertainty is what we have here, ladies and gentlemen. Big track envelope. What makes the least sense? Seems like a runner to me, at this point. Agree CR. I tell you what, this cold vortex over the northeast and the associated high pressure that drops down from Canada have been modeled very consistently. I haven't seen the northern stream / PV low movement over Canada be modeled well at all this winter...but for this one, it has. The more inconsistent modeling in this setup is with how the Pacific waves and central U.S. trough evolve. The GFS and UKMet, for example, are quite drastically different at the moment. We aren't going to have a clear picture until we have a better handle on how the Pac troughing evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WxSouth, Had a nice write up this evening for a lot of the SE! Just hope he's got the right Idea.......... Love to hear JBs thoughts , but he's probly still pissed about this Friday storm staying off the coast and not slamming the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WxSouth says this is a midsouth and east coast event on sun and Mon. Hopefully the deep south will be our turn next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WxSouth says this is a midsouth and east coast event on sun and Mon. Hopefully the deep south will be our turn next month. He did not say that at all haha. He even mentioned that the main question is how far the 850 line falls in NGA and Alabama lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking back at some select temperatures on the 12z Euro... Temp / Dewpoint 12z Sunday... Atlanta: 24 / 3 Charlotte: 18 / -11 Raleigh: 15 / -13 12z Monday as precip begins to move in... Atlanta: 30 / 19 Charlotte: 26 / 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 ^ Below zero dewpoints in CLT/RDU is characteristic of a very cold arctic airmass if the modeling is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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