Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET. I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc. That encompasses more than half of this board be careful when you say north GA. I don't think this threat looks good for most of metro Atlanta. It looks good for far north GA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc. That encompasses more than half of this board Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Jma is a hit for western posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is CLT counted as part of western NC? If I was in Charlotte I would be cautiously optimistic. Heck, this storm could wind up dumping on Macon, ga or charleston, sc for all we know. It's way to early to give up or to claim victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is CLT counted as part of western NC? I consider it Central NC. Anyone in the 828 is what I consider WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET. I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc. Cold rain is the theme of the day I did just see a very small flizzard on the way home though. Jma is a hit for western posters. Congrats to Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 FWIW, the eps snowfall mean has moved the 2 inch mean snowfall line south and east on it's last 4 consecutive runs. It now has the 2 inch line running from just north of Athens, GA to Anderson, SC to Charlotte to Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 FWIW, the eps snowfall mean has moved the 2 inch mean snowfall line south and east on it's last 4 consecutive runs. It now has the 2 inch line running from just north of Athens, GA to Anderson, SC to Charlotte to Greensboro. This storm has a lot of evolution still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z PARA GFS is a solid 2 to 4 inch snow hit for North GA and Upstate SC on Monday afternoon with subfreezing surface temps. Edit: Actually this is the 12z operational.... my mistake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I truly wish all of you a bit north of me some goodness out of this!!!!! Watching with envy. I get a bit concerned after next week unless we get some blocking to establish; indicies are not prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up. Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z PARA GFS is a solid 2 to 4 inch snow hit for North GA and Upstate SC on Monday afternoon with subfreezing surface temps. burrel - I believe that's the reg GFS, but check that....I only see 06z GFS Para out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it. Honestly IMHO it's a sure sign that the subforum covers too much territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 burrel - I believe that's the reg GFS, but check that....I only see 06z GFS Para out Ahh, You're right.. Well the 12z regular GFS is a solid hit then! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ahh, You're right.. Well the 12z regular GFS is a solid hit then! LOL I predict happy hour 18z will be better, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up. Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving. With respect to the Triangle Is it the path of the SLP (sound rider through NC?) that is the problem or just lack of CAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gfs looks to be digging a Little more early on in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Honestly IMHO it's a sure sign that the subforum covers too much territory. You may have a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 With respect to the Triangle Is it the path of the SLP (sound rider through NC?) that is the problem or just lack of CAA? I think it's way too early to tell either way right now. It could literally go in either direction. By all accounts, it looks like the high is moving out as the precip is moving in. Taken literally, this would be a snow or ice to rain situation for the Triangle. But taking a situation like this literally at 5+ days out is an act of folly, really. The two critical things to remember are: 1) Strong wedging (which looks very likely) will be slower to break down than the models show. In this case, we will have very cold and dry air in place. If the precip arrives (IF IF IF) before the high moves completely out, then game on for a frozen deal, with maybe (MAYBE) some rain at the end. 2 ) Precipitation usually arrives faster than the models show, assuming a system exists, and can move in before the wedge moves out. I know that may sound obvious, but often, when there is a system running into a strong wedge, precip breaks out earlier than the models show, even at 2 day leads. There still might not be a system. The high could end up farther north and weaker as we get closer (this is a frequent problem). So there are many things to mess it up. But if we get a decent system that gets in here while there is still wedging, you won't have to worry about a storm running up through the Triangle. It will likely Miller B with redevelopment offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thanks CR. Even a B storm with new slp could ride the Sound like last time is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thanks CR. Even a B storm with new slp could ride the Sound like last time is my guess Definitely. I want to see the high as strong and as far south as modeled and hang around longer than modeled. Then, I want to see the low more south than modeled and faster than modeled. That would be a classic COLD winter storm. That's not too much to ask, right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nah, just 4 criteria that aren't there now. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If the 12z CMC is right alot of folks would be looking at one big Major winter storm. Its showing starting in upstate around 8am on Mon and not ending until Tues morning. Sfc temps in 20s across upstate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Para Euro drops a couple inches of snow over northeast Georgia/Upstate then an inch+ of freezing rain on top. Para Euro snow maps match up closely with the OP Euro. More snow for the mountains. The difference lies in the surface temps. The para is keeping NE GA and Upstate SC sub-freezing when the heaviest axis of precip pivots through on Monday evening. Edit: From Gwinnett through Athens/Anderson/Greenville is still subfreezing at 7pm Monday evening where 1.25 to 1.75 inches of liquid has fallen up and down this line. Also, precip doesnt really make it to Raleigh until midnight, when the wedge has been busted and surface temps have risen to the mid 50's there! (It does this b/c it's plowing the strengthening surface low up through Central, NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Para Euro drops a couple inches of snow over northeast Georgia/Upstate then an inch+ of freezing rain on top. Oh goodie. Just what I want: a power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wave looks weaker / further south on the GFS. Maybe colder but I can't tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wave looks weaker / further south on the GFS. Maybe colder but I can't tell 18Z GFS looks like a convoluted hot mess. Well, cold mess. It's somehow pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like a typical FROPA on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Even Fishel just said that it could be any type of precip but still 144 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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