rduwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It's not a terrible run on 12z gfs. Snow for N. Ga., Upstate SC and Western half of NC at hr 156. EDIT: Nice wedge set in on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 That too, but the mountains tend to shear out energy diving in from that orientation... the trough axis is all messed up and that may hurt is next week as well. I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the mountains play a role at all. I've heard of this before, but I've never seen anything published or actual evidence related to this thought. How do mountains shear out energy located ~18k feet above us? The energy will clear the Appalachians with ease, it's probably another mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It's not a terrible run on 12z gfs. Snow for N. Ga., Upstate SC and Western half of NC at hr 156. EDIT: Nice wedge set in on the gfs. a nice cold rain for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 There's not much hope with next week's system either, per the 12Z GFS. Our HP is already centered over MN as the disturbance comes ashore near Seattle. Ouch. Euro, UK, and Canadian are a lot different, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It's not a terrible run on 12z gfs. Snow for N. Ga., Upstate SC and Western half of NC at hr 156. EDIT: Nice wedge set in on the gfs. slowly heading towards the other models.Still too progressive, not as deep,as the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 a nice cold rain for rdu. I haven't looked at any soundings but I'd say we switch to some sort of frozen precip around hr 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 As long as the GFS keeps looking better and going towards the other models, it's a positive. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nothing like a wave tracking from Washington state to Minnesota in an El Nino GFS has the look of a system that will produce 0.1 total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nothing like a wave tracking from Washington state to Minnesota in an El Nino GFS has the look of a system that will produce 0.1 total precip +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nothing like a wave tracking from Washington state to Minnesota in an El Nino GFS has the look of a system that will produce 0.1 total preciplol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I haven't looked at any soundings but I'd say we switch to some sort of frozen precip around hr 156. yea 850s look good and 2m temps are marginal. idk i just dont love the setup and getting too invested in this one will likely lead to disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 UKMet is so much different than the GFS. Wave tracks from Oregon to the southern Rockies, to Texas and is fairly amped. At hr144, the sfc low is in E Texas. High has retreated off the mid-Atlantic coast, but is still wedged in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nothing like a wave tracking from Washington state to Minnesota in an El Nino GFS has the look of a system that will produce 0.1 total precip Yeah, still looks like it becomes a frontal passage to me. I have no idea what to think about this system for next week anymore. It seems like things are a bit everywhere. So much for expecting storms to start in southern Cal and moving east. Even in a super Nino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 UKMet is so much different than the GFS. Wave tracks from Oregon to the southern Rockies, to Texas and is fairly amped. At hr144, the sfc low is in E Texas. High has retreated off the mid-Atlantic coast, but is still wedged in I think every other model is so much different from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 UKMet is so much different than the GFS. Wave tracks from Oregon to the southern Rockies, to Texas and is fairly amped. At hr144, the sfc low is in E Texas. High has retreated off the mid-Atlantic coast, but is still wedged inSounds slower than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12Z GFS is worlds better. Toggle from the past 4 runs of the GFS and you can see how it improves each and every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12Z GFS is worlds better. Toggle from the past 4 runs of the GFS and you can see how it improves each and every time. And that's the important thing. As long as the other models look good, and the GFS keeps catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12Z GFS is worlds better. Toggle from the past 4 runs of the GFS and you can see how it improves each and every time. With respect to what? I thought the High pressure wasn't as strong and the 500mb energy was further north. A small piece swung around the base of the trough on this run and it definitely helped the surface though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 With respect to what? I thought the High pressure wasn't as strong and the 500mb energy was further north. A small piece swung around the base of the trough on this run and it definitely helped the surface though. In regards to wintry precip for the upper south. Low keeps coming further south on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Sounds slower than 0z. Yes, storm not running into the cold air as well....but that cold airmass is probably going to want to hang in there like it did on the GFS. This reminds me of the light freezing rain event we had a few years ago (Jan '13) where the high was off the coast, but we still got ice b/c the airmass was cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z cmc digs way south w/ the wave and a lot sharper. HP sliding off the coast but wedge is in place. EDIT: Nice batch of precip over Atl and north in Ga at hr 162. Looks to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Brad P posted this on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like a pretty good hit on the Canadian....moreso than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the mountains play a role at all. I've heard of this before, but I've never seen anything published or actual evidence related to this thought. How do mountains shear out energy located ~18k feet above us? The energy will clear the Appalachians with ease, it's probably another mechanism. Perhaps energy isn't the right wording, the overall orientation of the trough as it appears probably has a bigger effect than geographical features, it is too far East and retreating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z cmc digs way south w/ the wave and a lot sharper. HP sliding off the coast but wedge is in place. EDIT: Nice batch of precip over Atl and north in Ga at hr 162. Looks to be snow. Canadian held the high in even better than the UKMet this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Canadian held the high in even better than the UKMet this run Yes it did...It was a big hit for several in the SE. Ga. and SC do really well. They should be pulling for the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yes it did...It was a big hit for several in the SE. Ga. and SC do really well. They should be pulling for the canadian. Asheville is all snow on CMC. NE GA to roughly Columbia to maybe just west of Raleigh stay 32 or lower at the sfc thru the full event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think every other model is so much different from the GFS. 12Z GFS is worlds better. Toggle from the past 4 runs of the GFS and you can see how it improves each and every time. I mentioned the problems w/ the GFS this morning here, if anyone is interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47772-february-midlong-range-winter-discussion/page-23#entry3968505 If you compare the 06z mean here to my post I linked, you see the GFS is struggling overall with HP location off the east coast. Because of that simple fact, we're not going to be able to get a storm to consistently be modeled until it nails that HP location...and that is yet to be seen in the models. Following ensembles, rather than operational runs, will yield to a better idea of overall trends in the HP. 06z GEFS looks worlds better on the means than any of the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I mentioned the problems w/ the GFS this morning here, if anyone is interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47772-february-midlong-range-winter-discussion/page-23#entry3968505 If you compare the 06z mean here to my post I linked, you see the GFS is struggling overall with HP location off the east coast. Because of that simple fact, we're not going to be able to get a storm to consistently be modeled until it nails that HP location...and that is yet to be seen in the models. Following ensembles, rather than operational runs, will yield to a better idea of overall trends in the HP. 06z GEFS looks worlds better on the means than any of the previous runs. GFS though is really struggling with the storm too I think. Hardly has one at all. But yeah, if that high can stay as shown there right on the coast, most of the SE CAD areas would be fine for a winter storm IMO from what the other global models are showing in regard to the storm. Off the coast is no good. At this point though I may as well say that I want it in upstate NY. Can I get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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