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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Paid EURO maps are not allowed...you can view it for free on Wunderground since it's under 180hrs for GA to western NC. Heavy accumulations. Eastern areas will see their accumulations on WU as time nears with newer EURO runs. 

 

I swear I've seen maps from WxBell posted on this board before...

 

Anyways, I do like the chances for Sunday night into Monday... As far as I can tell most major models (except for the GFS) have the basic ingredients for a southern storm.

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The new para I see is much more suppressed. 2 inches plus to south MS, AL, and GA, with a 6 inch lollipop For parts of east GA and western SC

Yep that a great thing at this point . It means the high is strong. At least we are not losing it to the north because of a weaker high . Plus 00z para had nothing . Great look 6-7 days out

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Grit will love the euro para. Colder than the euro op run and almost suppressed . Right where he wants it

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Me likey. Any model showing snow from Jackson to Columbia at Day 7 is good with me. Hopefully everyone can get involved with this one. Euro Para has been a little farther south with the NE vortex than any other model, so nice to a run with a system working underneath it.

Hopefully this is one of those times, there have been many thru the years, where the GFS is just lost

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What's more important to me is the fact that all the big models now have a storm for the east with varying degrees of cold air. The GFS was the last piece of the puzzle that needed to fall in place. Let's worry about the thermal structure as we get closer.However, at this range, you got to side with the highest scoring models. Not wish-casting, but the very cold air will be tough to dislodge and the wedge will be strong.

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Are sc/nc coastal areas included in this ATM? Not even sure if I want it to be. We were all in the last threat just to be taken out of it in the last 24 hours

 

I don't recall seeing a Myrtle Beach hit proper on modeling.  I would guess Para Euro was the closest with it's I-20 deep South hit.

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Oh boy,

 

Ukmet looks like a major hit at 144hrs. Surface low is stengthening back in LA/MS with a 1040ish sprawling high pressure situated over new york state. No signs of a great lakes low to be found.

 

Verbatim, it would probably extropolate out to a strong Miller B with snow to ice for lots of people in CAD area's.

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This is a winter storm on the 00z UKMet.  More amped with the wave, but precip is running into serious cold air damming...looks like a Miller B mixed bag

 

I'm willing to bet on an ice storm with that look down this way in, especially.  Wish we had precipitation maps.  12z OP Euro had something similar.

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I'm loving the high placement and orientation on both the CMC and the Ukmet. They look like carbon copies of each other. Only difference lie in the strength/orientation of the shortwave dropping down.

Looking at precip on CMC...it looks a lot like it's previous run overall.  It's slightly warmer, but still a Miller B winter storm

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