franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 To be fair, this has been on the Euro ensembles for about 5-6 days now. It has also been on the Euro op since last Friday at 12z. Yes it's been off on a couple runs but it has been there. The cmc and it's ensembles have shown this wave too. Lets not act like it just showed up on the 12z Euro today. I feel pretty strong there will be an event, nailing down the details will take some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I hope everyone just tempers their expectations with this storm. Like others have said, it could/probably will change many times. Just with the January storm, I was predicted to have a major winter storm here in Greensboro, NC, just hours before it actually came to pass. We only ended with a few inches of sleet. I won't be excited with this one until snow actually is flying here. Many aspects of this storm will undoubtedly will change as we get closer. Hopefully we all can end up with a nice snowstorm to cap winter off Yeah, although January was still a major winter storm for us. 3" of sleet is a big deal and made the roads a mess for awhile. It takes about as long to melt as 9" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 To be fair, this has been on the Euro ensembles for about 5-6 days now. It has also been on the Euro op since last Friday at 12z. Yes it's been off on a couple runs but it has been there. The cmc and it's ensembles have shown this wave too. Lets not act like it just showed up on the 12z Euro today. I feel pretty strong there will be an event, nailing down the details will take some time. Agreed. I'm going to try to tune out for the next couple days and come back once we get closer to the event and start to get some degree of an idea on specifics (I doubt I'll be able to help myself, though, LOL). So since everyone is giving up on the 15th for central NC, what's the next chance? March? Is this a real post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Agreed. I'm going to try to tune out for the next couple days and come back once we get closer to the event and start to get some degree of an idea on specifics (I doubt I'll be able to help myself, though, LOL). Is this a real post? lol... You're looking at the 18z gfs now and waiting on the para Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So since everyone is giving up on the 15th for central NC, what's the next chance? March? It sometimes makes sense to punt on 1st and 10, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Think he's been wrong on about everything he's predicted, atleast 90% of the time this winter! You have any statistics to back up your inane supposition which comprises most if not all of your posts? Really amazing they let you keep posting these borderline slanderous comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DGEX says we get an upstate special Friday morning... Edit: It goes on to clobber most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Slowly seeing the gfs fold to a more Euro like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z gfs trying to join the party but a lot slower w/ the wave and faster pushing our hp out and replacing it w/ low in the northern stream. Baby steps on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18Z GFS a huge party pooper, much much slower and warmer with the western short wave next week, faster with the eastern trough and the HP moving off the coast. Just a boring rain event. Looks like a lot of twists and turns with this one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You have any statistics to back up your inane supposition which comprises most if not all of your posts? Really amazing they let you keep posting these borderline slanderous comments.Do you have any statistics to prove me wrong?How's his winter forecast shaping up!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18Z GFS a huge party pooper, much much slower and warmer with the western short wave next week, faster with the eastern trough and the HP moving off the coast. Just a boring rain event. Looks like a lot of twists and turns with this one.....it's slowly getting there... Gfs will be late to the party on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Your favorite storm of all time (Jan88) had a weak 1016-1018mb low in the gulf to SE coast...more important is locked in cold and a good fetch of moist SW flow This is hyperbole banter Yeah a weak wave taping gulf moisture I could see from 88....I just didn't see the 12Z euro having a gulf low at all, so I didn't see what was taping the moisture for the storm. Not on the free maps anyway, one shows up though in the Atlantic at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Grit will love the euro para. Colder than the euro op run and almost suppressed . Right where he wants it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 it's slowly getting there... Gfs will be late to the party on this. Yeah, at least it has a southern storm this time....rather than a northern stream dominated one. Just no high pressure to the north!! Baby steps. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So from today's runs so far ; it's Euro, euro para, CMC, UKMET, VS GFS?? For a possible winter storm? I like the way that sounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah a weak wave taping gulf moisture I could see from 88....I just didn't see the 12Z euro having a gulf low at all, so I didn't see what was taping the moisture for the storm. Not on the free maps anyway, one shows up though in the Atlantic at 192.there is a big high so a weaker low with a stronger high creates a big pressure difference. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Big Rob, WxSouth 27 mins · kwork, the models are showing that very setup happening, starting late Sunday in the Tennessee Valley to Delta regions, spreading over much of the Southeast Monday and up the East Coast Tuesday.European model has been very insistent on this setup. The cold air coming in next weekend is True hardcore ARCTIC INVASION well to Georgia.Immediately, a weak wave dropping through the Rockies begins to tap Gulf moisture and it grows with time, covering a huge chunk of the Southeast and it's throwing out some impressive snowfall numbers into Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and up the into the MidAtlantic. Blockbuster numbers..but it's early yet. There's still plenty of time to watch this unfold. This particular storm looks to have extremely cold air in place, very far south, for the event, unlike many that are a "close call". As always, at this far out there's more questions than answers, like the exact track, how much moisture, the angle of the amplifying wave, and if thunderstorms could develop to really foul up the snow and ice totals for some locations. For now, I've broad brushed the basic region that appears to be most at risk for a Winter Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Big Rob, WxSouth 27 mins · kwork, the models are showing that very setup happening, starting late Sunday in the Tennessee Valley to Delta regions, spreading over much of the Southeast Monday and up the East Coast Tuesday. European model has been very insistent on this setup. The cold air coming in next weekend is True hardcore ARCTIC INVASION well to Georgia. Immediately, a weak wave dropping through the Rockies begins to tap Gulf moisture and it grows with time, covering a huge chunk of the Southeast and it's throwing out some impressive snowfall numbers into Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and up the into the MidAtlantic. Blockbuster numbers..but it's early yet. There's still plenty of time to watch this unfold. This particular storm looks to have extremely cold air in place, very far south, for the event, unlike many that are a "close call". As always, at this far out there's more questions than answers, like the exact track, how much moisture, the angle of the amplifying wave, and if thunderstorms could develop to really foul up the snow and ice totals for some locations. For now, I've broad brushed the basic region that appears to be most at risk for a Winter Storm. Boom! Can't wait to hear JBs thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gee whiz...everything from a cutter to an apps runner to a southern slider included on that graphic Frosty!! Lol. I think we could use that for nearly every scenario 7 days out. Lets start with the cold and worry about a storm track after Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gee whiz...everything from a cutter to an apps runner to a southern slider included on that graphic Frosty!! Lol. I think we could use that for nearly every scenario 7 days out. Lets start with the cold and worry about a storm track after Friday. I think that's the track of the low as he sees it, not 3 scenarios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Ha ha. My local weather met shushed Chris Justus down about mentioning the winter storm next week said its still to far off. WYFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think that's the track of the low as he sees it, not 3 scenarios? Ah, crap. Mobile screen strikes again. Couldnt see the little blue dots showing the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gee whiz...everything from a cutter to an apps runner to a southern slider included on that graphic Frosty!! Lol. I think we could use that for nearly every scenario 7 days out. Lets start with the cold and worry about a storm track after Friday. storm track dictates temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro para ensembles look more amped than the op... Closer in low with the old Euro op and eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z gefs coming around now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro para ensembles look more amped than the op... Closer in low with the old Euro op and eps. I only see the 00z run on wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I only see the 00z run on wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You're right, I'm looking at the old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The new para I see is much more suppressed. 2 inches plus to south MS, AL, and GA, with a 6 inch lollipop For parts of east GA and western SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The new para I see is much more suppressed. 2 inches plus to south MS, AL, and GA, with a 6 inch lollipop For parts of east GA and western SC is that 2" inches south GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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