February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[griteater]

It doesn't matter... it will change many times.  There may be no storm at all in the end.

To that end, the 00z run had no more than stray flurries for Atlanta, Greenville, Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, so

[griteater]

I feel pretty certain there's no way the low will track over the Triangle with CAD in place, though.  The track should be over the Pamlico Sound at least, IMO.

 

Anyways, the control run means pretty much nothing, anyways, so meh.

This paper says that the Op run is better than the control up to 96 hours.  However, from hr144 to 264, the control is better than the Op (this is the GFS).  It also says that the Op and Control run are both better than the individual members.  Anyway, just wanted to throw those tidbits out.  I haven't delved deeply into the paper.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/AAS200512_Zhu.pdf

[burrel2]

Not trying to be too big of a weenie... but the two best scoring models at 144hrs lead time are the Euro and Ukmet, both of which look like a big hit for the southeast shortly afterwards.

[nam0806]

I hope everyone just tempers their expectations with this storm.

 

Like others have said, it could/probably will change many times. Just with the January storm, I was predicted to have a major winter storm here in Greensboro, NC, just hours before it actually came to pass. We only ended with a few inches of sleet. I won't be excited with this one until snow actually is flying here.

 

Many aspects of this storm will undoubtedly will change as we get closer. Hopefully we all can end up with a nice snowstorm to cap winter off

[tnweathernut]

I hope everyone just tempers their expectations with this storm.

 

Like others have said, it could/probably will change many times. Just with the January storm, I was predicted to have a major winter storm here in Greensboro, NC, just hours before it actually came to pass. We only ended with a few inches of sleet. I won't be excited with this one until snow actually is flying here.

 

Many aspects of this storm will undoubtedly will change as we get closer. Hopefully we all can end up with a nice snowstorm to cap winter off

If the long range modeling is correct (big IF), the best of winter (late season style) may be yet to come, regardless of what happens the next 8 days.

[burrel2]

GSP's thoughts,

 

"There is some agreement among the ecm/GFS/ensembles on another
rapidly moving wave diving through the plains Sunday night and
reaching the southern Appalachians on Monday. This could set US up
for yet another round of rain/snow showers...with mixed ptypes
definitely possible given the recent Arctic air. Given the
appearance of the incoming 12z European model (ecmwf)...stay tuned on this one."

[SnowNiner]

I hope everyone just tempers their expectations with this storm.

 

Like others have said, it could/probably will change many times. Just with the January storm, I was predicted to have a major winter storm here in Greensboro, NC, just hours before it actually came to pass. We only ended with a few inches of sleet. I won't be excited with this one until snow actually is flying here.

 

Many aspects of this storm will undoubtedly will change as we get closer. Hopefully we all can end up with a nice snowstorm to cap winter off

 

Honestly, I don't even understand how the EURO is meteorologically showing a storm, with no low in the gulf.   My expectations are tempered....hopeful though. 

 

Do agree mid/late February could hold some promise.  Just seems to do that the last few years.  I'd hate to waste the quasi 50/50 low we have that helps keep us cold for next week though.

[franklin NCwx]

GSP's thoughts,

"There is some agreement among the ecm/GFS/ensembles on another

rapidly moving wave diving through the plains Sunday night and

reaching the southern Appalachians on Monday. This could set US up

for yet another round of rain/snow showers...with mixed ptypes

definitely possible given the recent Arctic air. Given the

appearance of the incoming 12z European model (ecmwf)...stay tuned on this one."

check out the h5 ensemble mean on the Euro.

[Cold Rain]

The 12z Euro very much as the look of another Miller B/insitu CAD with retreating high pressure.  I doubt very much we'd get a secondary forming over the Triangle with the magnitude of the wedge that would likely be in place, especially if the precip starts before the high is able to move out.

[SnowGoose69]

Honestly, I don't even understand how the EURO is meteorologically showing a storm, with no low in the gulf.   My expectations are tempered....hopeful though. 

 

Do agree mid/late February could hold some promise.  Just seems to do that the last few years.  I'd hate to waste the quasi 50/50 low we have that helps keep us cold for next week though.

 

The concern I'd have with this possible event is the GFS wants to make it NRN stream dominant which would make more sense in general with the setup shown  The Euro you can even see the hint of NRN energy near Wisc/Mich as well but it washes it out.  With the GGFS generally handling NRN stream energy better than the Euro in the medium range that needs to be considered.

[MillerA]

Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/696805933918212096?s=09

Just posted.

[Cold Rain]

The concern I'd have with this possible event is the GFS wants to make it NRN stream dominant which would make more sense in general with the setup shown  The Euro you can even see the hint of NRN energy near Wisc/Mich as well but it washes it out.  With the GGFS generally handling NRN stream energy better than the Euro in the medium range that needs to be considered.

 

The Euro washes out the northern stream, which is why we don't see the famous Lakes low depicted.  Plus, the western ridge isn't all that impressive.  I'd like to see it steepen up.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro washes out the northern stream, which is why we don't see the famous Lakes low depicted.  Plus, the western ridge isn't all that impressive.  I'd like to see it steepen up.

 

 

The one thing the Euro is likely right on is that high staying strong...an arctic high like that which could take NYC and Philly below 0 ain't washing out like the GFS sort of shows.

[Cold Rain]

The one thing the Euro is likely right on is that high staying strong...an arctic high like that which could take NYC and Philly below 0 ain't washing out like the GFS sort of shows.

 

Exactly.  That is why (if we do get some sort of a storm) I would favor a more eastward development of the secondary...maybe even southeast...over jamming it right through the Piedmont.  Still wouldn't be snow for here, but a correction to the east or southeast would make sense to me.

[griteater]

The concern I'd have with this possible event is the GFS wants to make it NRN stream dominant which would make more sense in general with the setup shown  The Euro you can even see the hint of NRN energy near Wisc/Mich as well but it washes it out.  With the GGFS generally handling NRN stream energy better than the Euro in the medium range that needs to be considered.

Possibly, but the UKMet looks good at hr144 and is no slouch at 5h

[PackGrad05]

So since everyone is giving up on the 15th for central NC, what's the next chance?  March?

[mackerel_sky]

Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/696805933918212096?s=09

Just posted.

Think he's been wrong on about everything he's predicted, atleast 90% of the time this winter!

[NGA WINTER]

So since everyone is giving up on the 15th for central NC, what's the next chance? March?

Wait, who is giving up? Lol

[griteater]

Honestly, I don't even understand how the EURO is meteorologically showing a storm, with no low in the gulf.   My expectations are tempered....hopeful though. 

 

Do agree mid/late February could hold some promise.  Just seems to do that the last few years.  I'd hate to waste the quasi 50/50 low we have that helps keep us cold for next week though.

Your favorite storm of all time (Jan88) had a weak 1016-1018mb low in the gulf to SE coast...more important is locked in cold and a good fetch of moist SW flow

 

So since everyone is giving up on the 15th for central NC, what's the next chance?  March?

This is hyperbole banter

[mackerel_sky]

Exactly. That is why (if we do get some sort of a storm) I would favor a more eastward development of the secondary...maybe even southeast...over jamming it right through the Piedmont. Still wouldn't be snow for here, but a correction to the east or southeast would make sense to me.

Wasn't this type of argument made for the Jan event? People saying it had to be further off the coast, but it went over the sounds?

[Cold Rain]

Wasn't this type of argument made for the Jan event? People saying it had to be further off the coast, but it went over the sounds?

Different argument. We were hoping that wouldn't track through the sounds, but I think you can make a much stronger case that a model is underdoing a wedge 7 days out than hoping a storm tracks offshore instead of through the sounds at a one day lead.

[rduwx]

So since everyone is giving up on the 15th for central NC, what's the next chance?  March?

 

Giving up?  Still a long ways to go w/ this one.  All we want right now is for a storm to continue to show up on the models.

[PackGrad05]

It was not banter.  I just read the last page and based on a few runs, it seemed like the consensus was folks were throwing out a chance for central NC.  

 

Someone give me the rundown on what type of system this is supposed to be anyway?

[burrel2]

Honestly, I don't even understand how the EURO is meteorologically showing a storm, with no low in the gulf.   My expectations are tempered....hopeful though. 

 

Do agree mid/late February could hold some promise.  Just seems to do that the last few years.  I'd hate to waste the quasi 50/50 low we have that helps keep us cold for next week though.

It's pretty simple really, see Jan 1988 for an example. Hint, look at the north to south temperature gradient at 850mb and the South to North 850mb wind flow. Strong Isentropic lift...

[rduwx]

It was not banter.  I just read the last page and based on a few runs, it seemed like the consensus was folks were throwing out a chance for central NC.  

 

Someone give me the rundown on what type of system this is supposed to be anyway?

 

It's a possible winter weather system that is showing up on some models for someone in the SE that is still 168 hours out.

[frazdaddy]

It was not banter.  I just read the last page and based on a few runs, it seemed like the consensus was folks were throwing out a chance for central NC.  

 

Someone give me the rundown on what type of system this is supposed to be anyway?

Perhaps one might read the last two pages and come to a conclusion.

[mackerel_sky]

Different argument. We were hoping that wouldn't track through the sounds, but I think you can make a much stronger case that a model is underdoing a wedge 7 days out than hoping a storm tracks offshore instead of through the sounds at a one day lead.

The wedge argument for colder, is a given 90% of the time. But at this range, just seeing a wedge signal, storm, and cold nearby, I'm good with our Fab Feb Finish! As for miller B, I could care less, if it gives some type of wintry precip! With the kind of cold models are wanting to have around, I hope to not have to lose any QPF to rain!

[superjames1992]

This paper says that the Op run is better than the control up to 96 hours. However, from hr144 to 264, the control is better than the Op (this is the GFS). It also says that the Op and Control run are both better than the individual members. Anyway, just wanted to throw those tidbits out. I haven't delved deeply into the paper.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/AAS200512_Zhu.pdf

Wow, that is interesting. I wouldn't have thought that. I suppose the higher resolution hurts after a certain timeframe and leads to compounding errors? I will have to read the paper.

[FallsLake]

^^I agree that the storm would most likely transverse near or off the coast. Even on the GFS dew points show near zero before the possible event. There would be some sort of CAD that would force the path to the east. Of course no guarantees, there may not even be a storm, it could get suppressed, or another 93 situation could force the path right over the Triangle.

 

If there's a storm, best bet would be right off the coast with a wide range of mixed precip solutions (typical SE winter storm). ***Definitely possibilities here... 

[DueUCMe]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

 

For next Monday...

 

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE

AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.