Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Of course. Coldest week of the winter, and when the storm comes it gets too warm. Typical. Meanwhile, further south gets more snow.

 

Fantasy snow, Brick.  Long ways to go.  Nobody really got anything much yesterday either.  Wait and see if we can get a clearer picture before claiming it a defeat/loss for anyone's area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fantasy snow, Brick.  Long ways to go.  Nobody really got anything much yesterday either.  Wait and see if we can get a clearer picture before claiming it a defeat/loss for anyone's area.

Actually, the overrunning part begins in west TN around 156 and the cold high is modeled well before then.  I think what helps everyone here is weak blocking that occurs between 144 and 168.  That seems to slow the entire eastern pattern down just enough to help really hold the cold air in place as this system gets going in the southeast.  Either way, BIG time winter storm for the bulk of the southeast, mid-south, and even parts of the deep south on the 12z Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's an odd track with the wave...from Wash/Oregon to Iowa/N Missouri...with moist SW flow eventually developing across the SE.  The cold high is the whole key for the wintry precip given the wave tracking more north than optimal....UKMet was farther SW (better)

 

I'll take it.  One way or another, the EURO wants to give us snow next week.  The overrunning situation is probably better for us anyway...

 

Let's just get everybody else on board.  Still seems like chaos theory on the various models, with some showing a good hit and others not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, 9" in my area on the new Euro. This wetter scenario actually fits well with the 00Z EPS, which was wetter than the 00Z Op. Of course 9" seems to be most likely a pipe dream, but the Euro has been consistent in showing some sort of snow event so I am very cautiously optimistic we will see something, maybe significant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol of course it does.

griteater, on 08 Feb 2016 - 1:46 PM, said:snapback.png

It's essentially a system with overrunning wintry precip into an airmass that is cold and dry....then, the deep south low cranks up and tracks inside of the Carolina coast....warming central and eastern areas.

I know you guys hate to hear that and I don't blame you but to be honest that seems to be when those of us in the Upstate get our best snowstorms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's always a good sign when cheez is onboard!

 

 

Exactly. I've been on these boards for 7 years now(when it was Easternwx) and usually when Cheez was pessimistic about an event, it never occurred or failed and when he is optimistic about an event, something usually does happen. It's always good news when he's on board or at least somewhat on board.

 

That clown map would be the storm of the decade for Atlanta.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

griteater, on 08 Feb 2016 - 1:46 PM, said:snapback.png

I know you guys hate to hear that and I don't blame you but to be honest that seems to be when those of us in the Upstate get our best snowstorms.

Meh, by the time it's off the coast, I'm simply of the opinion we are too far West for any further accumulation other than a few snow showers...Unless you get under the deformation band. I'd rather it stay weak, turn the corner and get everybody involved.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't be trying to jilt me out of my fantasy snow! That clown map gave CLT a good 8-12 based on where you stood, north to south Charlotte.  I'm in NW CLT so I'm close to a foot. 

 

January 88 or bust baby!!

I had just moved to clt from ohio when the queen city got 12". I went to work that morning but everything was closed  :lol:    As for the Euro earlier....mby needs that low further south and east, but it did give mby a flizzard   :ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had just moved to clt from ohio when the queen city got 12". I went to work that morning but everything was closed :lol: As for the Euro earlier....mby needs that low further south and east, but it did give mby a flizzard :ph34r:

Yes! I was in 6th grade and out of school for a week. It stayed cold that week and the roads continuously refroze. Great memories! Welcome to the south!! Lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the RDU crowd, it all has to do w/ the track.  The 12z euro was just inland bringing the warmer air to our area.  A track a little further east and we're in higher totals.  Still a long ways to go w/ this one so at this point we just want a storm to continue to show up on the models.  We'll start worrying about track over the weekend if it's still there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, 12z Euro ensemble mean is dropping a 1044 high into the USA.  Looks like precipitation showing up on the mean by day 5+. Nothing big yet, but with a strong high moving across, looks good if something can get going.

Modeling is trying to indicate a moist wsw overrunning flow attacking the backside of a retreating high. The high coming down is a almost a lock (maybe not the southern boundry extent).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Modeling is trying to indicate a moist wsw overrunning flow attacking the backside of a retreating high. The high coming down is a almost a lock (maybe not the southern boundry extent).

it's been there for awhile and so has this wave. I just hope it works out like the Euro shows.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...