rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not a strong signal on the 12z gefs mean for the day 7 storm. I'm sure there are individual members showing a storm but I expected a stronger showing on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not a strong signal on the 12z gefs mean for the day 7 storm. I'm sure there are individual members showing a storm but I expected a stronger showing on the mean. More storm signal on CMC Ens, though not as cold as we'd like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 More storm signal on CMC Ens, though not as cold as we'd like That seems to always be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The GEFS is a hot mess. Many slower solutions I.E rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man, what's going on in this forum? It's quieter than a Cam Newton press conference. Indices don't look bad in the LR. Euro advertising possible record breaking cold for this weekend and a couple of threats in the 7 day. The fact none of our red tags or regular winter posters are weighing in makes me think I being too optimistic about the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man, what's going on in this forum? It's quieter than a Cam Newton press conference. Indices don't look bad in the LR. Euro advertising possible record breaking cold for this weekend and a couple of threats in the 7 day. The fact none of our red tags or regular winter posters are weighing in makes me think I being too optimistic about the next few weeks. I think people are just worn out from tracking the big rain storm this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man, what's going on in this forum? It's quieter than a Cam Newton press conference. Indices don't look bad in the LR. Euro advertising possible record breaking cold for this weekend and a couple of threats in the 7 day. The fact none of our red tags or regular winter posters are weighing in makes me think I being too optimistic about the next few weeks. I think the 7 day threat is legit and looks like our best threat of the year. The high pressure is cold enough that we have a wide goal to shoot through. As long as we can get a storm in the 7 day time frame and it doesn't go through the Great Lakes it should be wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think the 7 day threat is legit and looks like our best threat of the year. The high pressure is cold enough that we have a wide goal to shoot through. As long as we can get a storm in the 7 day time frame and it doesn't go through the Great Lakes it should be wintry. Yeah, I just hate that the ensembles really don't show any strong support for a gulf storm and the GFS has absolutely nothing on it at all. I'm hoping that starts to appear today or tomorrow. It's going to get nice and cold but I wouldn't say there's strong signal for a storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I haven't seen anything yet that has impressed me with a D7 threat. The CMC is not a horrible look, but it seems wrong to me. The ridge out west is too flat. Waves just move along and don't get a chance to amplify. Similar look on the GFS, EURO, and Navgem. The CMC takes a strung out wave and makes a storm out of it. I don't discount the possibility of a storm, but the H5 look isn't screaming winter storm to me at all. In fact, it looks drier than normal. What happened to our subtropical jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I haven't seen anything yet that has impressed me with a D7 threat. The CMC is not a horrible look, but it seems wrong to me. The ridge out west is too flat. Waves just move along and don't get a chance to amplify. Similar look on the GFS, EURO, and Navgem. The CMC takes a strung out wave and makes a storm out of it. I don't discount the possibility of a storm, but the H5 look isn't screaming winter storm to me at all. In fact, it looks drier than normal. What happened to our subtropical jet? The UK model looked good at 144. Granted it's just one model, but it's a pretty good one. The CMC seems to dig just enough to turn the flow from the wsw generating a pretty good overrunning setup with a nice wedge over your way. It's probably wrong, but the setup isn't terrible IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Possibly the models are having a hard time dealing with the chaos of the recent complexity in the pattern and just haven't settled on a batch of energy to "promote." I just checked, the stj is still there, its hanging out down around south Baja, the Bay of Campeche and Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro is cold again. It has our weakish wave, overrunning system. Initial snows into deep south....Macon, over to Charleston overnight Sunday, and north and west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Then it's full on snowstorm on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I haven't seen anything yet that has impressed me with a D7 threat. The CMC is not a horrible look, but it seems wrong to me. The ridge out west is too flat. Waves just move along and don't get a chance to amplify. Similar look on the GFS, EURO, and Navgem. The CMC takes a strung out wave and makes a storm out of it. I don't discount the possibility of a storm, but the H5 look isn't screaming winter storm to me at all. In fact, it looks drier than normal. What happened to our subtropical jet? All the best storms my backyard has gotten in the last 20 years have resulted from weak waves that dampen out as they move east. Negative tilt, deepening, big dogs basically never work out here. Here are my positive takeaways from the D7 threat... Most of the models agree there there will be a strong high pressure in the northeast with 850 air in the -30C range. Most of the models also agree that there will be southerly low level flow from the gulf as the pacific "wave" approaches, thus leaving the gulf open for business even with a very weak, positively tilted sheared waves. These two factors lead to precip overrunning across the cold high pressure to produce wintery precip, even in if the pacific wave takes a fairly far north track. (Example, the euro run just now) Edit: I just want to add that the combination of high pressure and cold air being depicted on the models in the northeast is very rare. If we were to indeed get a storm system while the high is in a good position. We'll be looking at freezing surface temperatures piercing very south into GA and SC, even with a less than ideal storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The UK model looked good at 144. Granted it's just one model, but it's a pretty good one. The CMC seems to dig just enough to turn the flow from the wsw generating a pretty good overrunning setup with a nice wedge over your way. It's probably wrong, but the setup isn't terrible IMO. Yeah, forgot about the UK. Still would like to see that ridge out west looking much better. Maybe we'll get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 All the best storms my backyard has gotten in the last 20 years have resulted from weak waves that dampen out as they move east. Negative tilt, deepening, big dogs basically never work out here. That's pretty much the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Major SE snowtorm on the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro is super cold for Monday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro showing some post Valentine's love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Good 12z runs for UKMet / Euro combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z Euro drops 10"+ of snow in WNC, Central NC, and Upstate SC.. Hammers some spots in N GA will 12"+. Most on the board with a good chance to see accumulation with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 For GA and AL it looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z Euro drops 10"+ of snow in WNC, Central NC, and Upstate SC.. Hammers some spots in N GA will 12"+. Most on the board with a good chance to see accumulation with this run.-10 850 temps sitting over wnc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's essentially a system with overrunning wintry precip into an airmass that is cold and dry....then, the deep south low cranks up and tracks inside of the Carolina coast....warming central and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's essentially a system with overrunning wintry precip into an airmass that is cold and dry....then, the deep south low cranks up and tracks inside of the Carolina coast....warming central and eastern areas. Lol of course it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 euro big hit for gso west. rdu with 1-2". widespread 10"+ in western carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 -10 850 temps sitting over wnc! Yeah very impressive, I cant wait to see the EPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 euro big hit for gso west. rdu with 1-2". widespread 10"+ in western carolinas. That's it? We can't win for losing. Either to the east or to the west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That's it? We can't win for losing. Either to the east or to the west of us. temps dont cooperate, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's essentially a system with overrunning wintry precip into an airmass that is cold and dry....then, the deep south low cranks up and tracks inside of the Carolina coast....warming central and eastern areas.toss it. Those don't happen anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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