CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah, the amazing 1" of slop I got in Gastonia, was mesmerizing ! I lived about 20 miles north of Gastonia, at that time, and we picked up 6 inches of snow on top of an inch of sleet. Had 2 hours of thunder-snow to go along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Anybody have Euro surface map? At 192 at 5H has a low in a good position off Carolina coast, albeit weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Of course looks nothing like GFS at that range, this time frame will be up in the air for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Whoa! Then at 216 it bombs to 980 as it slides east. Goes to show the potential ticking time bomb here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Anybody have Euro surface map? At 192 at 5H has a low in a good position off Carolina coast, albeit weak Late-bloomer that gives E NC/SC some snowy love. EDIT: Surface temperatures are awful, but it's 8 days away, so whatever. It probably won't even show up next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Thanks superjames, guess we will pull for something in between GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Thanks superjames, guess we will pull for something in between GFS and Euro It really blows up as it crosses Cape Hatteras (it goes from 1012 mb to 992 mb in 12 hours... it is 150 miles east of Norfolk at hr 198). Precip field is fairly meek. Not a lot of precip or anything, but interesting. Probably won't be there next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Wait, how is there no cold air with a 1899 redux outbreak happening?? The hammer doesn't drop til after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Flipping no flipping high flipping pressure. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I lived about 20 miles north of Gastonia, at that time, and we picked up 6 inches of snow on top of an inch of sleet. Had 2 hours of thunder-snow to go along with it. I lived on the west end of Gastonia and ended up with about 4.5-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Anybody have Euro surface map? At 192 at 5H has a low in a good position off Carolina coast, albeit weak Without access to the in between or precip, it does look like a winter storm for eastern sections. I do not like the 1013 low sitting over the lakes at 192. With all this being said, Isohume says the Euro can be mostly ignored, so that's what I am rolling with until a North American models says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I lived on the west end of Gastonia and ended up with about 4.5-5".I'm sorry you had to live there! I was in the Cramerton area, closer to CLT, it was not memorable at all! So the theme has turned from promising, to cutter, cool down, warm up apps runner, extreme cold and dry!? Sounds fun, and Feb will be half over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Models look interesting. GFS jump's are crazy. I'm half interested in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Big 3 - 12z ens means at day 10. One thing that is evident is cross polar flow, a key ingredient for getting snow in to the deep south. I would like to see the ridge axis shifted a little east towards the west coast like the GFS shows. GFS and EC ens both picking up on a 50/50 and potential for a southern stream shortwave phasing in to the long wave. And just because... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 12z EPS control run has a 939 mb LP over Quebec D12. Okie, dokie. It's the control run, so it means nothing, but quite wild in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 12z EPS control run has a 939 mb LP over Quebec D12. Okie, dokie. It's the control run, so it means nothing, but quite wild in any case. Being a lover 9f snow not sure what to root for. Spent today washing 3 cars and a truck. Salt= ugh. Carwash es have been lined up here for 3 or 4 straight days raking on the cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Big 3 - 12z ens means at day 10. One thing that is evident is cross polar flow, a key ingredient for getting snow in to the deep south. I would like to see the ridge axis shifted a little east towards the west coast like the GFS shows. GFS and EC ens both picking up on a 50/50 and potential for a southern stream shortwave phasing in to the long wave. gfs.png euro.png ggem.png And just because... Where's Fla on the lower map - out to sea? Ga too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 FWIW- Robert, not to pumped on the cold!!! Western Ridge Continues to Get Beaten Down–Models Over Do Cold Down South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 FWIW- Robert, not to pumped on the cold!!! Western Ridge Continues to Get Beaten Down–Models Over Do Cold Down South Lol that figues since just yesterday he was hyping the cold Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Lol that figues since just yesterday he was hyping the cold Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Oh well, take your pic! I guess? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Oh well, take your pic! I guess? lol I'm not trashing him, Robert is great I'm just saying it seems like he is back and forth Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I'm not trashing him, Robert is great I'm just saying it seems like he is back and forth Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, I agree He is a great forecaster!!! One of the best in the SE.... IDK what's going on here? To much model flopping I guess?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah, I agree He is a great forecaster!!! One of the best in the SE.... IDK what's going on here? To much model flopping I guess?? I don't know when did he make that statement ? On his site? Cause I can't find it anywhere Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yes on his site.......... Has a big write up on it, I just posted his heading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This really ain't all that hard anyway. Storm threats are going to be non-specific 10 days out, 90% of the time. 10 day out Super duper Deep South cold outbreaks are going to moderate as we get closer, 90% of the time. The main take-away is that there is pretty good model agreement across the major suites for a trough east/ridge west combo. We will have cold air nearby, thanks to high latitude blocking and cross-polar flow. Winter is coming back. With it, you can bet there will be chances for snow and ice. Will we get a winter storm? Nobody knows. But it looks likely that we will have below normal temps, plenty of cold that could be tapped, and chances for storms. It's not the perfect pattern, but we rarely get the perfect pattern. Fortunately, we still get snow. Maybe this time will be different. But I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This really ain't all that hard anyway. Storm threats are going to be non-specific 10 days out, 90% of the time. 10 day out Super duper Deep South cold outbreaks are going to moderate as we get closer, 90% of the time. The main take-away is that there is pretty good model agreement across the major suites for a trough east/ridge west combo. We will have cold air nearby, thanks to high latitude blocking and cross-polar flow. Winter is coming back. With it, you can bet there will be chances for snow and ice. Will we get a winter storm? Nobody knows. But it looks likely that we will have below normal temps, plenty of cold that could be tapped, and chances for storms. It's not the perfect pattern, but we rarely get the perfect pattern. Fortunately, we still get snow. Maybe this time will be different. But I doubt it. Good post CR!!! JB's Saturday summary was good today! IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Good post CR!!! JB's Saturday summary was good today! IMOThanks man. I think you'll be plowing some snow pretty soon man! Thanks for the reminder about the Saturday Summary. Going to watch it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It really blows up as it crosses Cape Hatteras (it goes from 1012 mb to 992 mb in 12 hours... it is 150 miles east of Norfolk at hr 198). Precip field is fairly meek. Not a lot of precip or anything, but interesting. Probably won't be there next run. The EPS looks pretty bleak for this, too, so we probably toss and focus on the D10+ storm (wherever it sets up). EDIT: And then the 18z GFS almost does something with it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This really ain't all that hard anyway. Storm threats are going to be non-specific 10 days out, 90% of the time. 10 day out Super duper Deep South cold outbreaks are going to moderate as we get closer, 90% of the time. The main take-away is that there is pretty good model agreement across the major suites for a trough east/ridge west combo. We will have cold air nearby, thanks to high latitude blocking and cross-polar flow. Winter is coming back. With it, you can bet there will be chances for snow and ice. Will we get a winter storm? Nobody knows. But it looks likely that we will have below normal temps, plenty of cold that could be tapped, and chances for storms. It's not the perfect pattern, but we rarely get the perfect pattern. Fortunately, we still get snow. Maybe this time will be different. But I doubt it. Good post CR. I agree. The post by WeatherNC shows excellent agreement on by US, Europe and Canada ensembles at day 10. The other thing that is consistently modeled on all 3 is cross polar flow. I would say that the signal for cold is better now for Feb. than it was late Dec. for January. I would also expect that we get colder and stay cold longer with this cold than what we had for January. January will end up colder than normal, but other than last weekend, we did not have a ton of real cold weather. The cross polar flow indicated could change that for Feb. if what is shown verifies. No guarantee for Snow, but when do we ever get a guarantee here. All in all, I like our chances for February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Good post CR. I agree. The post by WeatherNC shows excellent agreement on by US, Europe and Canada ensembles at day 10. The other thing that is consistently modeled on all 3 is cross polar flow. I would say that the signal for cold is better now for Feb. than it was late Dec. for January. I would also expect that we get colder and stay cold longer with this cold than what we had for January. January will end up colder than normal, but other than last weekend, we did not have a ton of real cold weather. The cross polar flow indicated could change that for Feb. if what is shown verifies. No guarantee for Snow, but when do we ever get a guarantee here. All in all, I like our chances for February! Agreed. It's also supported by analogues and Nino climo. I'm sure we'll get a break or two, but I don't expect half of the month to be eaten up by a hostile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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