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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Thought the Euro only goes out 10 days?

It does. Euro started the storm in the western portions of the SE day 9 and rolled it to day into Georgia. The clown map of rolled to day 11 would be huge for Georgia as it was still pounding at 240 . Of course 00z will probably show a cutter

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Good run of 00z Euro, more in line with the good 12z Euro Para run.  50/50 PV low drops out of Canada into the northeast states, then rotates slowly into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, and gets trapped a bit with N Atl ridging...with cold high pressure to its west.  Healthy Pac wave coming out of the 4 corners doesn't amplify properly and ends up getting squashed by the northern stream...ends up being a light-mod wintry event across the upper south, at day 9.  Some nice features showing up on the Euro suite, but the end result is way out there in time.

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Good run of 00z Euro, more in line with the good 12z Euro Para run.  50/50 PV low drops out of Canada into the northeast states, then rotates slowly into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, and gets trapped a bit with N Atl ridging...with cold high pressure to its west.  Healthy Pac wave coming out of the 4 corners doesn't amplify properly and ends up getting squashed by the northern stream...ends up being a light-mod wintry event across the upper south, at day 9.  Some nice features showing up on the Euro suite, but the end result is way out there in time.

 

Agreed.  The Euro was pretty close on D6 (February 13th), as well, IMO.  All of the models seem to be hinting at something wintry in the D7+ timeframe, so it is looking pretty good.  Hope we can score.  The sleet storm we got a couple weeks ago just made me want snow more... ha.

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Agreed. The Euro was pretty close on D6 (February 13th), as well, IMO. All of the models seem to be hinting at something wintry in the D7+ timeframe, so it is looking pretty good. Hope we can score. The sleet storm we got a couple weeks ago just made me want snow more... ha.

Yeah, I hate to be greedy, but that's how I feel. It was a cool sleet fest but man I'd love a few good inches of accumulating snow.

Seems like the important features are being quite consistent on the Euro the last few runs, blocking in the Atlantic trapping the PV in the northeast, creation a decent high in a position that keeps the SE cold....with a wave running into it along the gulf. Details will change obviously but it seems like this may have some legs.

The good ones seem to be modeled well ahead of time, just saying!! :)

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Looks like the GFS,CMC,Euro, and Para Euro all have the day 8/9 event. All in??

 

All in! Until it turns into a cutter/Miller B, then I'm out. 

 

Just covering the basis....but yeah, 85 special or bust!!

 

Edit: GFS and the Canadian look both like a glorified cold front, clipper so I wouldn't say at this point they have it.  Euro has it and at this range that's the best right now.  Whatevs, it's going to happen, and Grit is going to start the thread on Thursday.

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