Lookout Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z euro really locks in a cold pattern for the east through the entire period...especially nc northward. mid atlantic and especially great lakes and new england are in for a pretty impressive stretch of cold with 850mb temps as low as -36c slowly progressing through southeast canada and entering northern new england by day 7/8 and beyond. Will need to watch the progression of a 1040 plus arctic high that drops south to the northern plains by day 7 and then slowly slides east. . It weakens with time but the airmass is so cold it really should have no problem providing a lot of cold air if something comes along. Unfortunately a long dry stretch seems likely..however 12z run does have a system finally coming along day 9 with snow/ice pretty far south (central ms/al) then spreading into ga/carolinas day 10..snow all the way to south ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think that has room to come South. The confluence in the North Atlantic should help keep that high from blasting through. Maybe that wave can speed up.. You can watch it break off from the upper low in the gulf of Alaska.mentioned this yesterday and I still stand by it. Check out how much colder the models are showing now in the 8-10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hard for the cold deniers to deny this, per Ryan Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 mentioned this yesterday and I still stand by it. Check out how much colder the models are showing now in the 8-10! The duration and degree of the cold is Impressive to say the least on the euro. The 12z run shows sub 0c 850mb temps the entirety of the next 10 days from north carolina northward and the only day the euro shows above 0c for ga and sc is friday (0 to 4c). In fact the average 850mb temp the next 10 days in north carolina probably is on the order of -8 to -12c..with the next day or two and next friday the warmest at 0 to -4c..but dropping to -20 to -24c by next sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The duration and degree of the cold is Impressive to say the least on the euro. The 12z run shows sub 0c 850mb temps the entirety of the next 10 days from north carolina northward and the only day the euro shows above 0c for ga and sc is friday (0 to 4c). In fact the average 850mb temp the next 10 days in north carolina probably is on the order of -8 to -12c..with the next day or two and next friday the warmest at 0 to -4c..but dropping to -20 to -24c by next sunday.impressive shot coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z euro really locks in a cold pattern for the east through the entire period...especially nc northward. mid atlantic and especially great lakes and new england are in for a pretty impressive stretch of cold with 850mb temps as low as -36c slowly progressing through southeast canada and entering northern new england by day 7/8 and beyond. Will need to watch the progression of a 1040 plus arctic high that drops south to the northern plains by day 7 and then slowly slides east. . It weakens with time but the airmass is so cold it really should have no problem providing a lot of cold air if something comes along. Unfortunately a long dry stretch seems likely..however 12z run does have a system finally coming along day 9 with snow/ice pretty far south (central ms/al) then spreading into ga/carolinas day 10..snow all the way to south ga.Guess that's all you can really ask for, having the cold air relatively close by, could atleast provide a good wedge at some point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hard for the cold deniers to deny this, per Ryan Maue I would not want to be in Toronto next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro ensembles are more bullish for the day 9 event. Definitely some really good hits for wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro ensembles are more bullish for the day 9 event. Definitely some really good hits for wnc. I assume not nearly as cold on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I assume not nearly as cold on the meanno, but its below normal and trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 1036mb sfc high just north of the lakes is a strong one for day 8 on an ensemble mean (Euro Ens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How are the clown maps trending? There was a Euro map earlier this week that showed 2'+ around RDU.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gefs rebuilds the ridge in the longer range. Winter just won't end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gefs rebuilds the ridge in the longer range. Winter just won't end!It started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol wow at the 12z euro major SE winter storm 14-15 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Why are we not talking more about this system? The past two days it hasn't fell off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Why are we not talking more about this system? The past two days it hasn't fell off. Everyone is focused on the 5 flakes that are going to fly tomorrow in Florence and Lumberton, and the drizzle that might clip RAH. When this is over and it's still showing on tomorrow's runs, it will get more attention! There is seemingly alot of cold air around , between now and then, definately another threat to keep an eye on. And the fact the Euro had a weenie run today, will be fun to track, I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How are the clown maps trending? There was a Euro map earlier this week that showed 2'+ around RDU.. Any clown maps to share? Would be great to see one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z para Euro is even colder than the regular euro. Drops some light snow in coastal sections of SC and then has a big storm in Texas with 850 temps below freezing into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z para Euro is even colder than the regular euro. Drops some light snow in coastal sections of SC and then has a big storm in Texas with 850 temps below freezing into the gulf.Sounds like the start of a Jan '88 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sounds like the start of a Jan '88 redux!day 8 it has a 1052mb high over lake superior. The Atlantic is blocked up so it can't escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z para Euro is even colder than the regular euro. Drops some light snow in coastal sections of SC and then has a big storm in Texas with 850 temps below freezing into the gulf. any way to legitimately post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 any way to legitimately post a map?we can't post any wxbell Euro maps anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 we can't post any wxbell Euro maps anymore. thought not.. :~( how far into the gulf and where (that's a big stretch of water - tx to fla)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 thought not.. :~( how far into the gulf and where (that's a big stretch of water - tx to fla)? it looks like a good freeze for the citrus groves. Your backyard should have a couple nights in the low to mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 it looks like a good freeze for the citrus groves. Your backyard should have a couple nights in the low to mid 20's. thanks! just picked this up from local nws - little north of me by 75 miles (s ga) but neat to see: MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER OUR NRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LIFT OCCURS NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT APPEARING TO BE A BIG FACTOR. LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES THAN PRIOR FCSTS...BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF THIS IN THE FCST AND GRIDS ATTM. FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND TWEAKED TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 30S IN SE GA AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NE FL. PINCHED PRES ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER LAND (MAINLY COASTAL NE FL) SO BUMPED WINDS UP...BUT APPEARS TO STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gfs develops a light overrunning event next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z para Euro is even colder than the regular euro. Drops some light snow in coastal sections of SC and then has a big storm in Texas with 850 temps below freezing into the gulf. day 8 it has a 1052mb high over lake superior. The Atlantic is blocked up so it can't escape east. Nice franklin, the Euro Para is pretty epic looking. Sends the PV - 50/50 low way south into NJersey then traps it with a big ridge extending from the Azores to the Davis Strait. There's one para member that has 25 inches of snow from ATL to GSP to CLT to RDU and points NW from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gfs develops a light overrunning event next weekend.Temps good and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Temps good and cold? Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How much snow do the Euro and mean EPS give for Atlanta for the storm in 8 or so days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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