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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Really like the trends today in the LR.  All Ops and ENS look good to me.  The big pattern break-down is off the table, if you believe what you see today.  I'd like to see a little bit more -NAO, but hey, that's apparently never going to happen for real.  So, we'll take what we can get.  Anyway, things are looking good!

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Rest of members look limited....it was the Control run's day in the sun

I think that has room to come South. The confluence in the North Atlantic should help keep that high from blasting through. Maybe that wave can speed up.. You can watch it break off from the upper low in the gulf of Alaska.
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Yep, I just don't like the Pac waves entering the west so far north....harder to keep them suppressed that way....those are details that are likely to chg anyway though...not necessarily for the better

There are some beastly highs among the members . Won't have a hard time staying south of those highs are out front

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I have to say i'm impressed with the level of moisture that will be associated with the deep upper trough next week. It's been quite a while actually since we've seen a trough this cold with this much moisture and weak disturbances in the northwest flow.  Upslope areas of north carolina/tn should get hammered..especially considering the duration. For a little while there could even be a lake superior/michigan connection for the mountains. Moisture is fairly deep as There is even a period of high 700mb Rh from monday night through tuesday extending as far south as north ga. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a few inches across northwest ga/northeast alabama. Gfs has it finally ending on wed but the jma keeps the snow showers going for upslope areas of eastern tn/nc even into thursday.

 

GFS_3_2016020512_F102_RH_850_MB.pngGFS_3_2016020512_F102_RH_700_MB.png

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Yep, Euro Control run has big sfc high over Great Lakes with Miller A gulf low from FL panhandle - up the east coast.  Big snow N Bama / N GA / SC Upstate / W 2/3 of NC

 

Man I miss those...If we reel it in, either you or Matt East creates the thread. 

 

Edit: Nice to see the EPS flip to a colder pattern.  Just something about mid-to late February the last few years where we cash in.  I bet we get nice hit in the next week or two. 

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We haven't had it the last two winters and Larry has some great examples of huge SE winter storms, with +NAO. Jan 88, is one and my favorite!

I'm beginning to feel that the Upstate will be hard pressed to ever match the Jan '88 snowstorm. I mean the depth of the snow and how cold a storm it was. Mid to upper teens across the Upstate at mid afternoon and very heavy snow. You just don't see that much in the South.

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I'm beginning to feel that the Upstate will be hard pressed to ever match the Jan '88 snowstorm. I mean the depth of the snow and how cold a storm it was. Mid to upper teens across the Upstate at mid afternoon and very heavy snow. You just don't see that much in the South.

That one shut down the area for almost a week.

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