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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Clipper precip on Monday looks decent on GFS.  Could trend a little better, or worse, depending on how the vort drops down into the trough.  Thicknesses are quite low so you'd normally go with snow showers east of the mtns, but the lowest levels are quite warm on the soundings.  40 dewpoint and 43 temp at the surface near Hickory Mon aftn.  Not cold enough for snow ptype unless that changes

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For the upcoming cold that is still not nailed down completely, the top analog at 2mT per CIPS is this:

bF72TwG.png

 

That's a little extreme, but thought I'd share.

 

The 00z GEFS did get colder over the SE w/ 2mT anomalies... (~14F below normal)

IcZE7FC.png

 

As for the LR: 06z GEFS hinting that the LR stays seasonal or cold, not warm as it's been advertising. Starting with 2/13 after the cold we get Day 5-6, it shows a PV dropping into the NE and the 06z GFS just spit out a 1051 HP dropping south to east. Has a cold look at NH 500mb throughout the 06z GEFS run. Of course, the Euro doesn't agree..it destroys the pacific and thus no ridge out west and is more zonal. We'll see who wins in that regard.

 

GEFS - 06z yesterday vs 06z today, compare 2/15-2/18 on both

 

Old:

k6iDM5l.png

 

New:

wwMDHlQ.png

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No comparison between the regular Euro and the Parallel at day 10. The Para is much more aggressive and is developing both a surface low and UL out over the SW and Mexico. The regular Euro has very cold in the east in advance and the Para shows a warm up in advance. Looks like two totally different model runs/models. Can't wait to see the next runs. 

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Matthew East agrees.

 

(1/2) If you've been paying attention to my videos, you know I am sniffing out something in the 2/15-2/17 time period....

 

(2/2) This is pattern recognition, not necessarily anything off a particular model run. Deep into the 'crystal ball' territory as of now.

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I buy it with the pattern on the GFS/GEFS. Day 10 period interests me.

 

Seem like a nice overrunning situation correct?  Bit of ridging in the east but the PV nice and close to the Northeast, giving us lots of cold air funneling down on top of us.  Wouldn't mind a January 88 repeat.  Might as well, there's not much time left this winter!

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Seem like a nice overrunning situation correct?  Bit of ridging in the east but the PV nice and close to the Northeast, giving us lots of cold air funneling down on top of us.  Wouldn't mind a January 88 repeat.  Might as well, there's not much time left this winter!

The midpoint of winter this year was actually on February 4 which means we have a lot of winter left !

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For next weekend on Euro, probably the best looking setup we've seen this winter for a fairly slow moving, cold high pressure to our north (plenty of time of that to fold on us).  However, our Pac wave is entering the U.S. in flippin Washington state - need that to enter in California.  Regardless, it looks like it still may work out at the end of the run with the Pac wave digging into the southern Rockies

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Lived in Tyrone, GA. for 24 years. In that time, the score is 16" - 10". March over December in snow totals over that period. Not much to write home about for either month over a 24 year period, but when average 2" a season what can one expect. 

 

Bottom line is that is is fair for us to have an expectation to get as much or more snow in March as in December. It is also fair to say that you have an equally high chance of being disappointed.

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Lived in Tyrone, GA. for 24 years. In that time, the score is 16" - 10". March over December in snow totals over that period. Not much to write home about for either month over a 24 year period, but when average 2" a season what can one expect.

Bottom line is that is is fair for us to have an expectation to get as much or more snow in March as in December. It is also fair to say that you have an equally high chance of being disappointed.

the 10" we had in March 93 probably skews things a bit. That's the last significant March snow that I've seen around here. 23 years without a significant March snow !!
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the 10" we had in March 93 probably skews things a bit. That's the last significant March snow that I've seen around here. 23 years without a significant March snow !!

We had 7" in March 93. Also had 5" March 1, 2009. It also shows  (IMHO) the higher potential for big storms as spring nears and wavelengths shorten as a general rule.

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For next weekend on Euro, probably the best looking setup we've seen this winter for a fairly slow moving, cold high pressure to our north (plenty of time of that to fold on us). However, our Pac wave is entering the U.S. in flippin Washington state - need that to enter in California. Regardless, it looks like it still may work out at the end of the run with the Pac wave digging into the southern Rockies

the Atlantic should be blocked up at this time with all the waves that have come through.
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I'd like to cash out the 12z Euro please. Nearly a 1050mb High moving into perfect CAD position with -35C air over New england and a potent shortwave poised to eject out of the southwest... yes please!

ensembles have been hinting at an event in this timeframe. That high has been modeled for sometime now.
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We had 7" in March 93. Also had 5" March 1, 2009. It also shows (IMHO) the higher potential for big storms as spring nears and wavelengths shorten as a general rule.

basically if we get snow in March its usually a big snow. Decembers are known for much smaller events but it can snow in Dec much easier than it can in March. We just don't get as much when it does snow in Dec.
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