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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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CIPS has -2 sigma trough, GFS and Euro both have -4 sigma. BIG time cold to the SE, check out the temperatures especially during midday...some areas won't get above 30 for the high...12z GFS had most of the SE in teens @ 1pm on 2/11. It still has time to trend warmer but at the same time, it has time to trend colder. Huge signal for first real arctic hammer of the season continues.

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BjTLuhl.png

HBESHj1.png

CIPS has -2 sigma trough, GFS and Euro both have -4 sigma. BIG time cold to the SE, check out the temperatures especially during midday...some areas won't get above 30 for the high...12z GFS had most of the SE in teens @ 1pm on 2/11. It still has time to trend warmer but at the same time, it has time to trend colder. Huge signal for first real arctic hammer of the season continues.

February is going to be interesting...thanks for sharing Jon

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That's crazy... how often does a model produce something like that for NC?

Not all that often honestly. I recall last year we couldn't buy a fantasy snow for weeks. Not saying this means anything or trying to hype, the only takeaway is we are headed into a pattern that could produce big dogs somewhere in the east. Seeing fantasy storms is definitely a good thing.
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Last post at 11:30 pm! = dumpster fire

Well the 7th event is not looking great, but we still have a shot at a two day very light snow or snow shower event next week. Here's the 6z 48 hour qpf total at hour 144: 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Lots of ~.1 readings with a small spot of .25 in S. Virginia (& upslope). This could over-perform for somebody; and with possibly higher ratios maybe somebody can score a nice event. But this may not come into focus until game time.  

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This is about as much as you can hope from RAH for next week:

 

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AFTER THE LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST A
SECOND EXTREMELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AIDED BY ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL
BRING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE SURFACE FRONT COMES IN LATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY BUT AFTER 00Z THICKNESSES PLUNGE INTO THE
SNOW REGION OF THE NOMOGRAM WITH NO SIGNS OF COMING BACK ANYTIME
SOON. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIGHT AFTER THAT POINT AND IT IS UNCERTAIN
IF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OR NOT BUT WITH THICKNESS VALUES
APPROACHING RECORD LOW VALUES...ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST
LIKELY EITHER SUBLIMATE OR FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF ON AND OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
PERIODS OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LOW QPF VALUES. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS UNCERTAIN
...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS
A LOT MORE CONFIDENCE. IT WILL BE COLD. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT HOW LOW IT WILL GO BUT A CONSERVATIVE BET WOULD BE HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN
THE MID 20S WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


 

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No chatter about our couple of chances for snow next week, what happened to the Super Clippers?  Isn't there suppose to be small Low pressures rotating around the trough that is digging for next week plus the super cold air is suppose to set off high ratios,,,,,I Thought.  :cry::snowwindow:

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12z GFS looks to have increased the qpf for next weeks clipper(s).  Most of the piedmont of NC is > .1 with around .25 around the Triad. If (....if) we can get some higher ratios this could turn into a nice event for some.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=147ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_147_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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12z GFS looks to have increased the qpf for next weeks clipper(s).  Most of the piedmont of NC is > .1 with around .25 around the Triad. If (....if) we can get some higher ratios this could turn into a nice event for some.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=147ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_147_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

 

The GEFS looks really good for it, as well.  We may need a thread soon.  You'd think we at least see some flakeage with this one...

 

Ratios should be nice, though it's always tricky to count on higher than 10:1 ratios around here, no matter what.

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The GEFS looks really good for it, as well. We may need a thread soon. You'd think we at least see some flakeage with this one...

Ratios should be nice, though it's always tricky to count on higher than 10:1 ratios around here, no matter what.

I guess with highs not being in the teens and 20s,

those 25:1 and 30:1 ratios won't come to fruition

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The GEFS looks really good for it, as well.  We may need a thread soon.  You'd think we at least see some flakeage with this one...

 

Ratios should be nice, though it's always tricky to count on higher than 10:1 ratios around here, no matter what.

I agree. Some will say we're jumping the gun but this may be the only thing we can focus on right now. Sad thing is the 12z GFS now shows a unfavorable pattern after next week. So this could be one of the last chances this year.

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I'm still holding out hope that the last week in February brings one more chance (other than the few flakes we see Tuesday).  It seems the last few years, that's the time frame that produces the most for some reason. 

 

Isotherm has a nice post about his doubts on the pattern breakdown in the NE long range thread.  But man, it seems like it wants to be spring out there....birds are back, frogs are croaking, and it's wet and warm.  After about the 20th, if it looks bad on the models, I think that'll be it probably for the winter. 

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