franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Well we finally get cold enough for something in ILM and MYB area and nope I guess this area with all the climate change going on is never going to have a good snow again. Strange. It has been at least 7 years.or its just climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 or its just climo... True but we are due. Have had some good snow storms here in the past. It happens every location in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS yet again includes NGA in the clipper early Tuesday ..and a fantasy storm a week from then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That is an insane event on the LR GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That is an insane event on the LR GFSYeah, clown maps are the best I have ever seen for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, clown maps are the best I have ever seen for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That is an insane event on the LR GFS I haven't seen the long range 18z gfs but I'm guessing it's the storm around the 18th. A big storm has been showing up around this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That is an insane event on the LR GFS Looks like 12-18" for most of central NC. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I haven't seen the long range 18z gfs but I'm guessing it's the storm around the 18th. A big storm has been showing up around this timeframe.Yes! Snow from CAE to RAH! Sweet spot about GSP/CLT/PGV! Lots of 10-20" totals , verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If it's still there when it gets to around 240 hrs out or before the gfs truncates then it could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like 12-18" for most of central NC. Not bad. Try 24-27" I'll post it for science... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Only 22"? I'll pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Try 24-27" I'll post it for science... Fiction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Fiction! AGREE! Although that cold coming for the 10th is not fiction, yet some are still not sold on it...how, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Try 24-27" I'll post it for science... In the famos works of Clark Griswald's father -Its A Bute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CIPS has -2 sigma trough, GFS and Euro both have -4 sigma. BIG time cold to the SE, check out the temperatures especially during midday...some areas won't get above 30 for the high...12z GFS had most of the SE in teens @ 1pm on 2/11. It still has time to trend warmer but at the same time, it has time to trend colder. Huge signal for first real arctic hammer of the season continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Try 24-27" I'll post it for science... That's crazy... how often does a model produce something like that for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CIPS has -2 sigma trough, GFS and Euro both have -4 sigma. BIG time cold to the SE, check out the temperatures especially during midday...some areas won't get above 30 for the high...12z GFS had most of the SE in teens @ 1pm on 2/11. It still has time to trend warmer but at the same time, it has time to trend colder. Huge signal for first real arctic hammer of the season continues. February is going to be interesting...thanks for sharing Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That's crazy... how often does a model produce something like that for NC?Not all that often honestly. I recall last year we couldn't buy a fantasy snow for weeks. Not saying this means anything or trying to hype, the only takeaway is we are headed into a pattern that could produce big dogs somewhere in the east. Seeing fantasy storms is definitely a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Good trends these past couple of days (atleast for the Tuesday snow showers, the primary thing I've been looking at since I'm in GA), seems like all models generally agree. Hopefully the 0z runs can keep the trend rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Last post at 11:30 pm! = dumpster fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Last post at 11:30 pm! = dumpster fire Well the 7th event is not looking great, but we still have a shot at a two day very light snow or snow shower event next week. Here's the 6z 48 hour qpf total at hour 144: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Lots of ~.1 readings with a small spot of .25 in S. Virginia (& upslope). This could over-perform for somebody; and with possibly higher ratios maybe somebody can score a nice event. But this may not come into focus until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is about as much as you can hope from RAH for next week: MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AFTER THE LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST ASECOND EXTREMELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AIDED BY ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILLBRING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MAJORITY OFTHE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE SURFACE FRONT COMES IN LATE ON MONDAYAFTERNOON...MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY INTHE FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY BUT AFTER 00Z THICKNESSES PLUNGE INTO THESNOW REGION OF THE NOMOGRAM WITH NO SIGNS OF COMING BACK ANYTIMESOON. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIGHT AFTER THAT POINT AND IT IS UNCERTAINIF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OR NOT BUT WITH THICKNESS VALUESAPPROACHING RECORD LOW VALUES...ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL MOSTLIKELY EITHER SUBLIMATE OR FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES ORSHOWERS. MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF ON AND OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILEPERIODS OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MOST LIKELYBE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LOW QPF VALUES. WHILE THE PRECIPITATIONFORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS UNCERTAIN...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HASA LOT MORE CONFIDENCE. IT WILL BE COLD. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENTABOUT HOW LOW IT WILL GO BUT A CONSERVATIVE BET WOULD BE HIGHS INTHE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS INTHE MID 20S WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHTINTO THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Of course we had lots of rain yesterday and will again today, but next week when it's cold enough for snow we won't have hardly any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No chatter about our couple of chances for snow next week, what happened to the Super Clippers? Isn't there suppose to be small Low pressures rotating around the trough that is digging for next week plus the super cold air is suppose to set off high ratios,,,,,I Thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z GFS looks to have increased the qpf for next weeks clipper(s). Most of the piedmont of NC is > .1 with around .25 around the Triad. If (....if) we can get some higher ratios this could turn into a nice event for some. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=147ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_147_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z GFS looks to have increased the qpf for next weeks clipper(s). Most of the piedmont of NC is > .1 with around .25 around the Triad. If (....if) we can get some higher ratios this could turn into a nice event for some. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=147ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_147_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160204+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model The GEFS looks really good for it, as well. We may need a thread soon. You'd think we at least see some flakeage with this one... Ratios should be nice, though it's always tricky to count on higher than 10:1 ratios around here, no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The GEFS looks really good for it, as well. We may need a thread soon. You'd think we at least see some flakeage with this one... Ratios should be nice, though it's always tricky to count on higher than 10:1 ratios around here, no matter what. I guess with highs not being in the teens and 20s,those 25:1 and 30:1 ratios won't come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The GEFS looks really good for it, as well. We may need a thread soon. You'd think we at least see some flakeage with this one... Ratios should be nice, though it's always tricky to count on higher than 10:1 ratios around here, no matter what. I agree. Some will say we're jumping the gun but this may be the only thing we can focus on right now. Sad thing is the 12z GFS now shows a unfavorable pattern after next week. So this could be one of the last chances this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm still holding out hope that the last week in February brings one more chance (other than the few flakes we see Tuesday). It seems the last few years, that's the time frame that produces the most for some reason. Isotherm has a nice post about his doubts on the pattern breakdown in the NE long range thread. But man, it seems like it wants to be spring out there....birds are back, frogs are croaking, and it's wet and warm. After about the 20th, if it looks bad on the models, I think that'll be it probably for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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