Poimen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Ummm...judging from the black and white maps, the GGEM looks like a big hit from RDU east Thursday night/Friday. We may need a thread for it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Is this a NC storm or are GA and SC involved too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm really tempted to start a thread for the 5th, I smell something brewing. May not look like much, but I smell a lee trough special if the planets align. GFS and Canadian have been showing this little grubby patch of snow for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm really tempted to start a thread for the 5th, I smell something brewing. May not look like much, but I smell a lee trough special if the planets align. GFS and Canadian have been showing this little grubby patch of snow for days. Go for it man. I have been think for a while now that some are going to get some surprise flakes on Friday AM. Everyone has been focused on what comes after that, but we aren't far away from a surprise dusting if not more in some areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 With the clipper stuff early next week, need to see the eastern trough sharper and farther south....we haven't improved there over the latest runs though the UKMet is pretty deep with the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Is this a NC storm or are GA and SC involved too? What do GA and SC stand for? Are those abbreviations for something that I should be aware of? I know that NC stands for North Carolina, but I am not aware of any lands beyond our borders. If a snowstorm happens in these assumed far-off lands of SC and GA, does anyone ever hear about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z BUFKIT gives CLT these ratios: 165: 22:1168: 29:1(!)171: 21:1Even if you average those out, it stands at 24 which is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS is also showing -tssn for several foothill locations such as Morganton and Hickory for the first clipper on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z BUFKIT gives CLT these ratios: 165: 22:1 168: 29:1(!) 171: 21:1 Even if you average those out, it stands at 24 which is insane. How much total precip? Do we squeeze out a tenth of an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Really good run with the pass of the vort max for Monday on Euro....light to moderate snow / snow showers across a lot of our forum. Sfc reflection emerges off Wilmington....that's a nice benchmark for some previous events that were good with this type setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here in GA we are likely to whiff on the first two according to the new Euro but # 3 looks like some decent snow showers, then one heck of a cold blast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro just isnt that impressive here with wave #3 as far as QPF goes and thats the one with the most potential, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here in GA we are likely to whiff on the first two according to the new Euro but # 3 looks like some decent snow showers, then one heck of a cold blast..... 850s dropping to -20 to -22c with Highs maybe not making it out of the teens as far south as atlanta and barely 20 here in the normally much warmer downslope zone..... with lows in the single digits likely...and even below zero in the mountains. Very impressive if it came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro just isnt that impressive here with wave #3 as far as QPF goes and thats the one with the most potential, IMO. It looks like 0.25 at a minimum for GSP and CLT on Vista....but it does look like lesser amts on WBell...not sure of the reason for diff. Good 5h run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It looks like 0.25 at a minimum for GSP and CLT on Vista....but it does look like lesser amts on WBell...not sure of the reason for diff. Good 5h run though Is that when the arctic air is in place and there could be high ratios??? That's 3 inches easy if the dry air can be overcome quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It looks like 0.25 at a minimum for GSP and CLT on Vista....but it does look like lesser amts on WBell...not sure of the reason for diff. Good 5h run though Is that from monday though? or is that after monday? the monday QPF looks good but it also looks warm at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Is that when the arctic air is in place and there could be high ratios??? That's 3 inches easy if the dry air can be overcome quickly! Yeah, wow that's what I was thinking. I'd take .25 inches in that situation in a heartbeat. Not sure how we squeeze that much out though. Does the Euro pop a weak low at the base of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Is that from monday though? or is that after monday? the monday QPF looks good but it also looks warm at the sfc. Oh, yeah that's Monday. Thicknesses are so low, I would think that's all or predominate snow in most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yeah, wow that's what I was thinking. I'd take .25 inches in that situation in a heartbeat. Not sure how we squeeze that much out though. Does the Euro pop a weak low at the base of the trough? wxbell shows it does in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Is that when the arctic air is in place and there could be high ratios??? That's 3 inches easy if the dry air can be overcome quickly! Hard to figure those specifics, but it's not super cold aloft initially....ratios would increase slightly I suspect as you go along in that setup Yeah, wow that's what I was thinking. I'd take .25 inches in that situation in a heartbeat. Not sure how we squeeze that much out though. Does the Euro pop a weak low at the base of the trough? It's mainly just a good run of the 5h vort max, passing to our south....a sfc low emerges off Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Hard to figure those specifics, but it's not super cold aloft initially....ratios would increase slightly I suspect as you go along in that setup It is a bit confusing. The GFS has two different periods: Monday/Tuesday and another on Wednesday. The one on Wednesday would be the one with killer ratios and 850's below -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Any snow showing up for ILM and MYB areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 3m3 minutes ago 2:39pm ET: Tornado warning for Columbia, SC take shelter now Southside of town. #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 RAH - for next week. ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THEEASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRINGDOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS INTHE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITHRESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUTA LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTICAIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME APROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 RAH - for next week. ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THEEASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRINGDOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS INTHE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITHRESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUTA LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTICAIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME APROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Hope it's colder than that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Hope it's colder than that....They will lean heavily on climo temp wise, 6 or 7 days out. Probably safer to go with 30s for highs at this point, instead of 10s/20s highs shown on GFS by Wed and Thursday ! My local news station just threw up a 7 day planner and it had me at 33/20 on Wed! Sunny of course, but that's remarkable for them to do that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Hope it's colder than that.... They always go for climo. Standard operating procedure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Maybe a winter event will overproduce like todays severe weather here in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Maybe a winter event will overproduce like todays severe weather here in SC. yep these storms have been over producing, wlos said yesterday models showed 1.5 inches and in my rain gauge in west asheville we had 3 inches even. KAVL recorded 2 inches. Maybe Monday night and Tuesday will over produce with some snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Well we finally get cold enough for something in ILM and MYB area and nope I guess this area with all the climate change going on is never going to have a good snow again. Strange. It has been at least 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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