Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm really tempted to start a thread for the 5th, I smell something brewing. May not look like much, but I smell a lee trough special if the planets align. GFS and Canadian have been showing this little grubby patch of snow for days.

Go for it man. I have been think for a while now that some are going to get some surprise flakes on Friday AM. Everyone has been focused on what comes after that, but we aren't far away from a surprise dusting if not more in some areas!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Is this a NC storm or are GA and SC involved too?

 

 

What do GA and SC stand for?  Are those abbreviations for something that I should be aware of?  I know that NC stands for North Carolina, but I am not aware of any lands beyond our borders.  If a snowstorm happens in these assumed far-off lands of SC and GA, does anyone ever hear about it?  :bag:   :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here in GA we are likely to whiff on the first two according to the new Euro but # 3 looks like some decent snow showers, then one heck of a cold blast.....

850s dropping to -20 to -22c with Highs maybe not making it out of the teens as far south as atlanta and barely 20 here in the normally much warmer downslope zone.....  with lows in the single digits likely...and even below zero in the mountains.  Very impressive if it came to pass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is that when the arctic air is in place and there could be high ratios???  That's 3 inches easy if the dry air can be overcome quickly!

 

Yeah, wow that's what I was thinking.  I'd take .25 inches in that situation in a heartbeat. 

 

Not sure how we squeeze that much out though.  Does the Euro pop a weak low at the base of the trough?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is that when the arctic air is in place and there could be high ratios???  That's 3 inches easy if the dry air can be overcome quickly!

Hard to figure those specifics, but it's not super cold aloft initially....ratios would increase slightly I suspect as you go along in that setup

 

Yeah, wow that's what I was thinking.  I'd take .25 inches in that situation in a heartbeat. 

 

Not sure how we squeeze that much out though.  Does the Euro pop a weak low at the base of the trough?

It's mainly just a good run of the 5h vort max, passing to our south....a sfc low emerges off Wilmington

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard to figure those specifics, but it's not super cold aloft initially....ratios would increase slightly I suspect as you go along in that setup

 

 

It is a bit confusing.  The GFS has two different periods: Monday/Tuesday and another on Wednesday.  The one on Wednesday would be the one with killer ratios and 850's below -10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH - for next week.

ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THEEASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRINGDOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS INTHE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITHRESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUTA LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTICAIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME APROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

RAH - for next week.

ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THEEASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRINGDOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS INTHE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITHRESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUTA LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTICAIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME APROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

 

Hope it's colder than that....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope it's colder than that....

They will lean heavily on climo temp wise, 6 or 7 days out. Probably safer to go with 30s for highs at this point, instead of 10s/20s highs shown on GFS by Wed and Thursday ! My local news station just threw up a 7 day planner and it had me at 33/20 on Wed! Sunny of course, but that's remarkable for them to do that!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe a winter event will overproduce like todays severe weather here in SC. 

yep these storms have been over producing, wlos said yesterday models showed 1.5 inches and in my rain gauge in west asheville we had 3 inches even.  KAVL recorded 2 inches.  Maybe Monday night and Tuesday will over produce with some snow totals.  :snowing:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...