UpStateCAD Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 3:19 PM, burrel2 said: How long have you lived here? That scenario has happened quite often over the last 30 years. Hopefully we'll have better luck this time though... Far more times than I care to recall. I've been waiting for a 1988 redux for a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 3:19 PM, burrel2 said: How long have you lived here? That scenario has happened quite often over the last 30 years. Hopefully we'll have better luck this time though... I've lived here for 27 years. Can't remember the last time Charlotte got over six inches of snow while GSP only got rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z gfs looks improved. HP a tad south and 3mb stronger. But if you notice the HP's isobars are oriented more southerly allowing more cold to build south. Precip over 114 over texas is suppressed abt 50 more miles and 500mb looks better as well energy is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z GFS would be a major ice storm for CAD regions on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Look at the lp in northern US at hr 96 than moves due east. That blocks our hp and keeps cold north of it. If that went away or came south..... it would be insane. someone would see snow for 4+ days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS shows a monster storm crawling (990 mb) up just east of the Apps with flooding rain and a blizzard on the backside, crazy looking setup but then again its the long range GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Verbatim the 12z gfs is not there for most of us. Still too far out to worry about details, but the general idea is low pressure coming out of gulf with high pressure to the north. All you can ask for at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z cmc is an apps runner so not a good track for any of us but the track will change a lot over the next few days. The main thing is the possibility of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 4:22 PM, burrel2 said: 12z GFS would be a major ice storm for CAD regions on Tuesday. It looks too warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 4:41 PM, packfan98 said: It looks too warm to me. Doesn't matter. It would correct much colder as we got closer if it held this same look. Compare what the GFS is depicting now with the December 2005 ice storm. Notice the location and strength of high/low pressure and the 850mb temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Seems like the GFS and it's ensembles kinda keep the low track inland. EURO and it's ensembles keep the track off the coast. I think the CMC ensembles keep the track off the coast as well (CMC op, don't care). Anybody got the UKMET? It seems like the UKMET had the right idea for the last event early and the EURO went to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ukmet would imply an apps runner.. We need to the Euro to shift south and east today to stay in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ukmet would run the apps or the nc piedmont. Hard to tell just looking at a surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 4:51 PM, SnowNiner said: Seems like the GFS and it's ensembles kinda keep the low track inland. EURO and it's ensembles keep the track off the coast. I think the CMC ensembles keep the track off the coast as well (CMC op, don't care). Anybody got the UKMET? It seems like the UKMET had the right idea for the last event early and the EURO went to it. FWIW, the ukmet was way too far north and west 144hrs out from our last storm. It was dropping the pacific energy too far south and west which lead to bomb solutions going west of the apps. Hopefully it's doing the same thing here, but as it stands now the GFS,CMC, and ukmet all agree on sending a strong surface low towards the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 4:53 PM, burrel2 said: Ukmet would imply an apps runner.. We need to the Euro to shift south and east today to stay in the game. Ouch. Unless we somehow get a 50/50 low to develop, not sure if we can get such an eastern track that we need. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 How about Frenchie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 4:56 PM, SnowNiner said: Ouch. Unless we somehow get a 50/50 low to develop, not sure if we can get such an eastern track that we need. We'll see.we need the frontal boundary to come farther south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 5:03 PM, franklin NCwx said: we need the frontal boundary to come farther south and east. Thanks Franklin, where do I look at where the frontal boundary sets up on the models? What view? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The 12z gfs ens mean has the track right over RDU. I'd guess the individual members have several different tracks. Some app runners and some off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I think people in Alabama, NW GA, Eastern TN, the mountains, and along a general line like that have a decent chance at seeing something...I don't know...I just think based on climatology and the way the upper level looks, it'll track inland so anyone on the western/NW flank of the storm will get a good snowstorm. The Wxbell snowmap from last night on the Euro is a good idea of what we might see. Obviously, it can change, but if I was in the areas just to the west of the apps, I'd watch a little more carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 NCEP GFS shows something similar to what I think might happen. Maybe track the low a little more east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 So close. So very close. Anyone think it will start trending south. The low and the hp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Snow schmow. The setup looks pretty tasty for some more hoses across peninsular FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 5:41 PM, TiltedStorm said: So close. So very close. Anyone think it will start trending south. The low and the hp?Our two " winter" storms , trended South from 7 days out and if not, they trended alot colder as we got closer! As for TN and AL, they looked to be in play the last storm, but were out of the game by 2/3 days before the storm! And the only thing that saved the Carolinas , was the wedge!Let the Euro show a bomb in the same place as last night, there will be a quick page or two of - Euro goes boom! Crush job ! Etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 As an avid fan of the ukie, imo from past expierence it's wheelhouse is 72 on in. I've always giving 90+ % of anything 120 and out to euro ens. The other 10% I use to see how much they suport or disagree with euro. Pretty much all these tracks from apps to piedmont runner to off coast match up with euro ens, but the para and euro ens are heavily more focused to off the coast suppressed look than weighted toward the other op tracks. This gets said repeatedly the ops are fun to look at past 120 but you have to dig into ens to get a feel of credibility in op solutions. One overwhelming signal I see is a storm is definetly looking like it's on the way. Now get the track nailed or zeroed down, then you can try to figure out 850s and surface temps, precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 5:10 PM, SnowNiner said: Thanks Franklin, where do I look at where the frontal boundary sets up on the models? What view? Thanks.you can usually see it on multiple levels. The easiest is looking at 200mb and the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I believe this EURO run is going to be way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 On 2/17/2016 at 6:30 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Lol, Euro is an apps runner. Makes the most sense for an amped up system, given the pattern. Unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 LPS is down around Meridian, MS at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 euro cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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