Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Niner, that is one of the most typical corrections we see in the winter....a PV displaced far to the south and hanging around for a long time, showing promise for a winter storm, which then corrects farther to the north and moves out faster as we close in. Why? No real -NAO. People say the -NAO isn't really all THAT important for SE winter storms. Well, it IS important for keeping the PV slash 50/50 low in place farther south for a longer period of time, thus widening the window for a winter storm. What do we have here? A PV correcting north with time. A PV pulling out quickly. A weak (if at all) NAO ridge over top of it. Fortunately, we have a very, very cold and dry air mass in place. That should produce at least some front end wintry for some, assuming the wave out west can get here in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:04 PM, franklin NCwx said: Gfs para coming in more amped. Not sure if it will cut with the trough still positively tilted. Miller B look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:09 PM, Cold Rain said: Niner, that is one of the most typical corrections we see in the winter....a PV displaced far to the south and hanging around for a long time, showing promise for a winter storm, which then corrects farther to the north and moves out faster as we close in. Why? No real -NAO. People say the -NAO isn't really all THAT important for SE winter storms. Well, it IS important for keeping the PV slash 50/50 low in place farther south for a longer period of time, thus widening the window for a winter storm. What do we have here? A PV correcting north with time. A PV pulling out quickly. A weak (if at all) NAO ridge over top of it. Fortunately, we have a very, very cold and dry air mass in place. That should produce at least some front end wintry for some, assuming the wave out west can get here in time. I'm not in that people group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:11 PM, griteater said: I'm not in that people group Me neither man. Without a -NAO, you really want the PV to be sitting in TN at D7 to have a chance. That way, at kickoff, it'll be up in SE Canada. Unfortunately, that's when our luck would have us in a dry NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 2:06 PM, griteater said: At 5h, it looked like the Euro Op was in between the UKMet and GFS/CMC camps. At the sfc, it was closer to the end result of the UKMet of north and warmer as it amped up too strong at the last minute. 00z Euro Para was both flatter and colder than the 00z Euro Op with the NE vortex moving out quicker on the Op. Latest GFS Para similar to Euro Para. French model looks good with the sfc high at 102, with Pac wave setup not in the UKMet camp (image below) 06z GFS has that weak, light QPF look again. I don't know here....probably give a slight lean to the more amped, warmer solution in the end, because that's how things roll a lot of times, and also, the speed of the storm has slowed a bit...but only a slight lean...lot of moving parts with the handling of the Pac to central US trough. Eps does not really support the Euro OP and it's wrapped up solution fwiw Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:09 PM, Cold Rain said: Miller B look.no but it's a furnace it the mid levels. Takes too long to come through so cold air is gone even in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:09 PM, Cold Rain said: Niner, that is one of the most typical corrections we see in the winter....a PV displaced far to the south and hanging around for a long time, showing promise for a winter storm, which then corrects farther to the north and moves out faster as we close in. Why? No real -NAO. People say the -NAO isn't really all THAT important for SE winter storms. Well, it IS important for keeping the PV slash 50/50 low in place farther south for a longer period of time, thus widening the window for a winter storm. What do we have here? A PV correcting north with time. A PV pulling out quickly. A weak (if at all) NAO ridge over top of it. Fortunately, we have a very, very cold and dry air mass in place. That should produce at least some front end wintry for some, assuming the wave out west can get here in time. Yeah, I'm learning that the hard way. I was very gung ho about this time frame last week when that was modeled. Looked great! but it trended away from really what I wanted to see. That's essentially what I think is going to happen, a front end hit of something....then I don't know. Hate having to rely on the cold hanging on when there's no high to lock it in, no matter how cold the air mass is. This of course, is on the tail end of a cold period. On 2/10/2016 at 3:09 PM, Cold Rain said: Miller B look. lol, well at least it's not a frontal passage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:15 PM, franklin NCwx said: no but it's a furnace it the mid levels. Takes too long to come through so cold air is gone even in the mtns. Weird run...closes off h5 over the SE (a first) but is a warm runner through the piedmont...and is slow to get here as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:15 PM, franklin NCwx said: no but it's a furnace it the mid levels. Takes too long to come through so cold air is gone even in the mtns.Nasty ice storm! Mtns can be rain, with a good wedge and the CAD regions get lights out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/697430461753245696?s=09 Allan posted about five tweets of his thoughts about the Monday system. Basically what everyone has said about western nc is the best spot to see the snow/sleet mix even though the cold is retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:20 PM, griteater said: Weird run...closes off h5 over the SE (a first) but is a warm runner through the piedmont...and is slow to get here as you saidhuge change from it's previous run but at least it's not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 3:23 PM, mackerel_sky said: Nasty ice storm! Mtns can be rain, with a good wedge and the CAD regions get lights out! Indeed. Local ATL media mets are starting to post clown maps: https://twitter.com/BradNitzWSB?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor On the bright side, Sunday is a Sunday and Monday is a holiday for many so hopefully few to none will be caught out in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS looks like its not going to be too amped this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z GFS looks good to me so far. Precip appears to be coming in faster, and flatter. EDIT: Yeah, light precip covering the western half of NC by 7:00 AM Monday morning, when none of the previous runs had anything across the NC/TN border by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS not bad at all, not a heavy event but decent for WNC, ETN, then it looks to turn to mix for most then maybe back to snow, convoluted set up for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Triad region looks to be snow to mix back to snow (below freezing until the end of the storm). Raleigh kicks over to snow as the Miller A cranks off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looks really icy to me for cae and points west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That looks a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 gfs is icy for rdu, some snow as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 4:19 PM, Brick Tamland said: That looks a lot better. Only if you like ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That GFS run is about as good (good as in wintry) a setup as can be expected with this storm...looks to me like it's warming the sfc too much based on the setup...it's not a big amped cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 4:13 PM, UpStateCAD said: The high is already in a big time retreat by then however. True, but it's a step in the right direction. Overall, not a bad run. It could be better with regards to the cold and high, as you mentioned, but I wouldn't mind this at all (but that may just be because I am in the 5" sweet spot on the clown map Packfan posted above ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It looks like the Canadian is sticking to it's guns. If anything it holds the CAD in even longer and dampens the wave more. Don't have precip maps yet, but it might be lighter event, but colder. Much better than showing a wound up cutter. IMO Edit: Ukmet is a phased monster again. It is really out on it's own with this solution. It's a red flag, IMO, the the Canadian isn't showing a big phased storm. Normally at this range, the Canadian loves to over amp stuff. I really believe the ukmet is going to be wrong on this one. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 4:23 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Only if you like ice Just talking about the potential for a winter storm of some kind. Could always be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Gfs continues to amplify the backside of the trough more than running the front energy through the lakes. This should continue to correct towards its ensembles and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 4:16 PM, packfan98 said: Another SE flatter shift like that and it would be close to Jan 2-3 2002 which was a decent statewide storm for NC.......only with lower totals and not the foot plus north central NC had in 2002...all 100 counties in NC reported snow with that one though and that might be a stretch with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 4:24 PM, burrel2 said: It looks like the Canadian is sticking to it's guns. If anything it holds the CAD in even longer and dampens the wave more. Don't have precip maps yet, but it might be lighter event, but colder. Much better than showing a wound up cutter. IMO Edit: Ukmet is a phased monster again. It is really out on it's own with this solution. Good grief I really hope it stays on its own with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 UKMet is a massive cutter....snow in Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 4:27 PM, griteater said: UKMet is a massive cutter....snow in Detroitdefinitely concerning. Wpc tossed the ukmet solution on their morning update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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