TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Well someone had to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Hello summer!! Gotta go buy wax for the boat and a new innertube. Pina Coladas for everyone! Woohoo! Yes Mack....Feb Fail thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 I FAIL SO MUCH! I predict lots and lots of cold rain events for most of the people on this board. The reasoning behind this is most of us are in the Southeast and well we get cold rains most of the time. I do not trust 10 day out storms. The last storm that came through had clown maps galore and most of the people on this board ended up with a little ice and sleet. February better bring some true arctic air masses or we shall see cold rain or a little sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Its going to start rocking the second week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This month is going to have so much February in it. I can't wait! Don't believe me? Look at your calendar. There are 29 days! We get extra February!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 00z GFS not looking that's exciting. No post frontal wave on 3th/5th, cold looks ok after about 8th or so, but cold coming down the plains too steeply, could make way for an apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Why so gloomy? Gfs is close to some big events. Feb 5,8 and 11 all have lows off the coast and show great potential on most models cmc looks getter than gfs. Can't believe you guys are cancelling winter when we are going through a minor "reset" lol. 3 storm signals in 6 days..... That's reason to believe something epic might happen. Cold is there and storms too just need some trends quicker with phasing and boom someone gets 3 big storms in 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 00z Euro is really close with the February 5th potential system. Verbatim, it shows some snow for NE NC and SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The 00z Euro is really close with the February 5th potential system. Verbatim, it shows some snow for NE NC and SE VA. That look at the end looked like something out of a 360 panel of the GFS...energy all over the east coast all about to phase. Would be another superstorm for someone. Chances of it verifying are at about 1% ...but with the last storm coming in with a vengence I think it's a solution that certainly could repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That look at the end looked like something out of a 360 panel of the GFS...energy all over the east coast all about to phase. Would be another superstorm for someone. Chances of it verifying are at about 1% ...but with the last storm coming in with a vengence I think it's a solution that certainly could repeat itself. Yeah, interesting look for sure. Lots of players on the field for some fireworks. Someone should get a good storm during the upcoming period. Hope it's us in the SE a that get in on the spoils. Looks like the EPS control run drops 2-4" of snow (not all of it would likely stick, though, given the warm temperatures preceding it) from C NC up through RIC and into the Delmarva peninsula with the D7 system. Pretty similar to the operational run, but a bit more bullish. It's still cold chasing moisture and I think the Euro is mostly on its own with it (though I think the GGEM was close), though, but it's something to watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Don't pay much attn to him, he was like that the last storm and most of the upstate ended up with 4+ inches. 4+ inches of snow along and north of highway 11 and the north halves of Greenville and Spartanburg counties is NOT EVEN CLOSE to most of the upstate. 75% of the upstate had 2 inches or less and much of the area not even a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That look at the end looked like something out of a 360 panel of the GFS...energy all over the east coast all about to phase. Would be another superstorm for someone. Chances of it verifying are at about 1% ...but with the last storm coming in with a vengence I think it's a solution that certainly could repeat itself. Next time Burger just start your post with "it has about a 1% chance of verifying but...." and I can just stop reading right there. LOL! With 100% chance of verification, daylight savings time ends in 43 days! And another 100% chance, January is gonna go out on fiyah baby! Coppertone and cold beers for everyone this weekend! Man I wish the GFS was 100% accurate at 360! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 BINGO! 6z GFS says coldest air of the season is coming. Likely major stormy period when you get into that Spring vs Winter battle late February. I'm sticking to my guns and writing off these next two weeks...I think something wintry occurs third week of February during the rebound period. Week two storm is there near Feb9 but I have low confidence on how that one will unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Pretty textbook cross-polar flow on the Week 2 EXCAM model (this was yesterday's run) but wow that's cold. We'll see what today's run brings. As I mentioned the other day, 2/10 looks colder than the 2/5+ cold, although you're not seeing it on the ensembles yet. The trough should dig more and become deeper and colder, as the ridge on the east is already modeled very strong on Day10+ ensembles...so we will likely see a response east, depending of course on where the ridge sets up. The fun is past day 10 for storms, so we just have to play the waiting game for the ridge to build east on Day 10+ and split flow to get going. Enjoy the warmth, I'm not sure when the next time we'll see temps like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 4+ inches of snow along and north of highway 11 and the north halves of Greenville and Spartanburg counties is NOT EVEN CLOSE to most of the upstate. 75% of the upstate had 2 inches or less and much of the area not even a half inch. Ok if you say so LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranknRaleigh Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I post very little but observe and read these posts daily. My main concerns are the upcoming weather trends and their effect on energy prices. On January 25, various weather models began indicating eastern US cold intrusions beginning around February 5 and continuing. Several posters on the January thread made note as well beginning on the 25th. The morning of January 26, the prices bid on the NYMEX natural gas futures market for cash and March 2016 delivery, as well as the stock prices for several companies producing or transporting natural gas began increasing and continued to do so into Friday night's aftermarket trading. Investors are observing and acting with huge amounts of cash. We in the energy markets are convinced that most of February and a good portion of March will be cold in the eastern half of the US. The mantra of "the trend is your friend" is not just a hope for a southeast or east coast winter storm for us. It's a market marker or breaker. And, the markets have been speaking loudly for a week now in response to near future weather observations and predictions of a cold weather outbreak. BTW....I thank the many observers on this site who help interpret weather models! I am by no means a professional or amateur met. Just an enthusiast and a keen observer of these discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Another strong warming over the pole forecasted,a little stronger than the previous one.1hpa is forecated to reverse and 10hpa is getting close to as well.A technical SSW then if we get reversal at 10hpa remember. Whoever gets under the two splitting vortex's is going to get mighty cold I'll say that,one piece looks like its going into SE Canada.I do see a few modles wanting to take the MJO into phase 4/5 recently,if the PV sets up and is strong as advertised it might overcome the tropical forcing end though so we'll see. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I post very little but observe and read these posts daily. My main concerns are the upcoming weather trends and their effect on energy prices. On January 25, various weather models began indicating eastern US cold intrusions beginning around February 5 and continuing. Several posters on the January thread made note as well beginning on the 25th. The morning of January 26, the prices bid on the NYMEX natural gas futures market for cash and March 2016 delivery, as well as the stock prices for several companies producing or transporting natural gas began increasing and continued to do so into Friday night's aftermarket trading. Investors are observing and acting with huge amounts of cash. We in the energy markets are convinced that most of February and a good portion of March will be cold in the eastern half of the US. The mantra of "the trend is your friend" is not just a hope for a southeast or east coast winter storm for us. It's a market marker or breaker. And, the markets have been speaking loudly for a week now in response to near future weather observations and predictions of a cold weather outbreak. BTW....I thank the many observers on this site who help interpret weather models! I am by no means a professional or amateur met. Just an enthusiast and a keen observer of these discussions. Interesting contribution. People usually aren't parting with their money without what they feel is sound advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 man, the LR GFS just dropped an iceberg on tennessee, especially BNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 man, the LR GFS just dropped an iceberg on tennessee, especially BNA. Chances of a big time storm in the 2/10-2/11 period are starting to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 BINGO! 6z GFS says coldest air of the season is coming. Likely major stormy period when you get into that Spring vs Winter battle late February. I'm sticking to my guns and writing off these next two weeks...I think something wintry occurs third week of February during the rebound period. Week two storm is there near Feb9 but I have low confidence on how that one will unfold. would like storm to move a little west though to include Upstate SC and most of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 March '93 in 10 days per the 12z GFS. Triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Chances of a big time storm in the 2/10-2/11 period are starting to ramp up. Hope this includes most of Ga., SC, and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 March '93 in 10 days per the 12z GFS. Triple phaser. Kinda like 1899 with that cold coming in afterward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Kinda like 1899 with that cold coming in afterward It kills the HP for some reason, but looking at the 500mb maps it's a massive outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Ok if you say so LOL! http://www.weather.gov/gsp/EventSnowfallTotals That map shows it best. Only a fairly small area in upstate SC got the 4+ totals. Most of the 12 county region got much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Chances of a big time storm in the 2/10-2/11 period are starting to ramp up. Tons of honking, barking pick your metaphor. Think alot of folks are gonna have their belly full and satisfied by March 7th. You can't set the table up any better then what's showing up on the ensembles. Gonna be a fun 4 weeks to close out the season and with the stj still jacked up we should see atleast 2 big dogs as well as a couple novelty events unfold. Just hope your back yard is in the right spot. Lol at the 93 superstorm 12z gfs just spit out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If we do get some kind of a superstorm 93 repeat, hopefully it'll track 50-75 miles farther south and east. That would bring the GSP and Charlotte metros and maybe the Raleigh area in on it. It would be nice to have some cold air here ahead of it too, unlike we had for the 1993 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If we do get some kind of a superstorm 93 repeat, hopefully it'll track 50-75 miles farther south and east. That would bring the GSP and Charlotte metros and maybe the Raleigh area in on it. It would be nice to have some cold air here ahead of it too, unlike we had for the 1993 storm.Yeah, the amazing 1" of slop I got in Gastonia, was mesmerizing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If we do get some kind of a superstorm 93 repeat, hopefully it'll track 50-75 miles farther south and east. That would bring the GSP and Charlotte metros and maybe the Raleigh area in on it. It would be nice to have some cold air here ahead of it too, unlike we had for the 1993 storm. A storm of that magnitude will "cut" inland at some point. As we all know, the timing of the phase makes all the difference. That simply can not be predicted at this range. Couple of things stand out..... 1) we have some very old air pushing down and 2) we have a fairly strong signal for a storm. That's about all you can hope for at this stage. If I was forced to make a call right now it would be for a more suppressed system. for no other reason than the surge of cold air that is modeled to come down out of Canada. Just sit back and watch the show.... This one has the capability to make all of our seasonal snowfall totals above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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